The Athletic is covering the NBA trade deadline live.
The NBA is waiting on Toronto, but it’s possible Toronto is waiting on Brooklyn, and it’s possible Brooklyn is waiting on Kevin Durant.
Somehow, as we count down the hours to the Feb. 9 trade deadline, this all comes back to the New York Knicks.
Advertisement
Ask around the league what people think is the most interesting trade-related topic right now, and many respond with something about the Raptors, who are hanging around the fringes of the Play-In Tournament. Two of their best players, Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr., can become free agents after this season. Their top performer, Pascal Siakam, can become one next summer. OG Anunoby has been more ubiquitous in the rumor mill than he is inside the Toronto defense.
So, will the Raptors tear it down? Will they trade everyone? Someone? No one? And more specifically to New York, would the Knicks be able to get in on Anunoby? The Athletic’s Shams Charania has reported their interest in the 25-year-old defensive stalwart.
It depends on if the Raptors are waiting on the Nets.
This is the NBA, where every action has a reaction.
The Kyrie Irving trade, which sent the eight-time All-Star to the Dallas Mavericks, wasn’t only about Irving, the players coming back to Brooklyn, the Nets or the Mavs. It was about the whole league, which is now wondering: OK, Irving is out, so what does that mean for Durant, who asked for a trade nine months ago when Irving was next to him? Now that his costar is gone, might he refresh the request this upcoming offseason?
To be clear, there is no public indication that Durant will ask out again. He hasn’t said it. He hasn’t tweeted it. But Durant is the level of all-time great that mere speculation about ‘Will he or won’t he?’ is enough to change the market …
… which brings us back to the Raptors, a team built to make a run for Durant if the former MVP were to become available.
If they’re planning on going for him, do they want to trade away many of their best players now? There’s no point in acquiring Durant if all you’re left with is Durant and no one else. Might they be more hesitant to trade, say, Anunoby, who would be an ideal two-way fit alongside a do-everything wing?
Advertisement
If so, what do the Knicks do about that? Toronto’s asking price for Anunoby is already sky-high, league sources have reiterated during the lead-up to the deadline. If the Raptors believe they have a chance at Durant, it may take even more to pry Anunoby away.
In that sense, Durant speculation could impede the Anunoby market. Of course, the week of the trade deadline is chaotic. No one can predict it. And there are ways the Nets situation could sway the Anunoby market in favor of New York, too.
For example, one of the teams pursuing Anunoby is the Phoenix Suns, whose trade-deadline objectives are clear: They want to get better. They reportedly made a play for Irving before the trade to Dallas was completed. They’ve tried for immediate help in exchange for Jae Crowder, who’s been on the block since the Gadsden Purchase. But they hold an important distinction in this discussion.
When Durant asked out last summer, the Suns were reportedly the team atop his list. They have all of their first-round picks, as well as impressive young players, like Mikal Bridges and Deandre Ayton. So now they have to weigh: Do they want to give up two or three first-rounders for Anunoby today only to learn three months from now that they could land Durant if only they had enough picks to trade for him?
No one wants to end up like the Atlanta Hawks when they traded various first-rounders for Dejounte Murray just before Durant asked out of Brooklyn, meaning they were too depleted to get in on the hunt once the Nets began to field offers.
The same could be said for the Memphis Grizzlies, another team loaded with draft picks that could justify a win-now move and would be an ideal basketball fit for Anunoby or, certainly, for Durant, too.
If one or two suitors drop out of the Anunoby race, it could help the Knicks’ pursuit. Then again, it could also encourage the Raptors to hold onto him through the end of the year. Anunoby can’t become a free agent until 2024.
Advertisement
No one knows what will happen. But we’ll find out soon.
The Anunoby sweepstakes are far from the only topic to discuss with the deadline approaching. Here are five more Knicks-related thoughts:
Sneaky market-setter
People love pointing to the Rudy Gobert trade as the deal that changed the market for stars. The Minnesota Timberwolves gave up three unprotected first-rounders, a top-five protected first, a first-round swap and various helpful rotation players for the three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year. It still affects asking prices leading into the deadline, like with the Raptors and Anunoby.
But Gobert changed the valuation of All-Stars. And there’s another year-old, seldom-discussed trade that changed the asking price specifically for role players: the Derrick White one.
(Did you think this was going to any part of the garden other than the weeds?)
After the Boston Celtics acquired White from the San Antonio Spurs last winter, trade nerds marveled. Is Josh Richardson going back to San Antonio? Whatever. Romeo Langford? Nice player. A 2022 first-round pick, too? Solid get.
But there was one part of the deal that inspired a few double-takes: the Spurs received a 2028 first-round swap, as well.
Swaps are normally reserved for the big star trades, like in the Gobert haul, not for role players. Alas, there was White — who’s now an essential contributor on the title favorite — commanding a swap more than half a decade into the future. Sure, the Celtics are fantastic today and the Spurs are frolicking after Victor Wembanyama, but who knows what happens six years removed from 2022?
Trades have only built up from there. When San Antonio traded Murray, an All-Star, to the Hawks last summer, the return had to be larger than the one it got for White, which meant Atlanta handing over two unprotected firsts, another protected one, and, of course, a swap. The market only snowballed from there.
Advertisement
So don’t blame the Wolves and Gobert for this inflation, especially not when you hear people speculate about someone like Anunoby costing two or three unprotected first-rounders. Blame the Spurs and Celtics.
Money conscious
The Knicks will not make a trade that brings them into the luxury tax, which they’re closer to than it seems.
A couple of weeks ago, they were $7.7 million short of the tax line, a comfortable distance away from it. It’s rare to make a midseason trade that adds that much salary. But they’re inching closer to it, even as they sit idly.
Julius Randle making the All-Star team earned him a $1.2 million bonus, which brings the Knicks now $6.5 million short of the tax. And there’s more. Randle has a $1.2 million bonus if the Knicks make the playoffs, as well. Meanwhile, Isaiah Hartenstein has two bonuses for $350,000 each: one if New York makes the playoffs and another if it wins 40 games. The Knicks are currently in seventh place and are on pace to go 44-38.
And that means they can’t operate at the deadline as if they’re $6.5 million short of the tax. Thanks to the three aforementioned bonuses that are yet to trigger, they have to assume they’re only $4.6 million short of it.
Chances are, they won’t find a deal that lands them more than a $4.6 million increase in salary. But going back months, they’ve told other teams they could use Evan Fournier, who has two years and $37 million remaining on his contract, to take back a more expensive player in the hopes of it earning them a pick. It’s a specific scenario, but if a hypothetical trade of Fournier or the expiring Derrick Rose were to add more than $4.6 million, then a corresponding move would have to come to dodge the tax, too.
The Dallas pick
The Knicks have been hesitant to trade first-round picks for anything other than more first-round picks under this administration (with the Cam Reddish trade being the one exception), but New York may want to consider parting with the Dallas selection it owns in this upcoming draft.
Advertisement
That pick is top-10 protected, which means it’s almost certain to convey this summer. If the season were to end today, the selection would slot at No. 18, and considering the Mavs just pulled off the trade for Irving, it may climb into the 20s by Game 82.
But adding two young players this summer, one with the Dallas pick and one with the Knicks’ pick, would be a lot for New York to add, considering it’s already struggling to find time for all of its young guys (see: Reddish, again).
It’s possible, though not probable, that a third pick could come their way in this year’s draft, too. New York receives the Washington Wizards’ pick if Washington makes the playoffs. The Wizards are currently 12th in the Eastern Conference but are only one game back of 10th. They plan to hold onto their top-tier talent, like Kyle Kuzma, and are maneuvering to add to their rotation with the deadline approaching, league sources say.
It’s the age of the Play-In Tournament. All a team has to do is finish in the top 10, and it has a chance at the No. 8 seed. And the Wizards, as always, are angling for it.
If the Knicks want to improve in the next 36 hours, and it seems like they do, dealing the Dallas pick is an intuitive way to do it.
Is Gary Harris the answer?
Forget about the Anunoby chase or the hopes for a star. The Knicks’ true soulmate is a blue-collar spot-up shooting guard in Orlando.
Gary Harris would make for the perfect Knicks player.
It’s not just because Harris plays a position of need in a Thibsian way. It’s not just because he’s drained better than 40 percent of his 3-point attempts over the past two seasons, which could boost New York’s lagging long-range performance. It’s not just because he could provide a veteran presence off the bench or because he’s a low-maintenance addition, someone the team wouldn’t have to bite into its future to acquire but who could help immediately.
Advertisement
It’s because of those spicy financials, too. He has the perfect Knicks contract.
This front office has made a conscious effort to compile salaries from the NBA’s middle class, ones along the lines of Rose’s $14.5 million or Fournier’s $18 million. It’s part of their star-hunting strategy. Piecing a few of those players together can add up to enough salary to trade for a max contract.
Harris, who makes $13 million this season, is in that class. But that’s only part of the reason he’d fit in with the front office’s long-term plan.
Though the Knicks have searched for Rose-related trades over the past couple of months, the team has floated the possibility of holding onto the veteran point guard because of his contract structure, as The Athletic previously reported. Rose has a 2023-24 team option for $15.6 million. The deadline for picking up team options is after the draft, which means if a star trade pops up on draft night, the Knicks could pick up Rose’s option and pair him and Fournier together to send out $34.5 million in expiring 2023-24 money.
But the draft is scheduled for June 22. Free agency begins June 30. The deadline to pick up Rose’s team option is between those two dates, which means this strategy would work only if the Knicks found a trade on draft night. And trades for stars are more likely to pop up come the first week of July.
Here’s where the geekiness of Harris’ hypothetical fit with the Knicks hits a new level: You know what’s even more flexible than a team option? A non-guarantee date.
Harris’ $13 million salary for 2023-24 doesn’t guarantee until June 30, the day free agency kicks off. But teams and agents can mutually agree to move that date back however late they like, something Harris’ people might be amenable to since the vet may not earn such a high salary if he were to hit the open market this summer. With Harris, the Knicks could wait a little longer, maybe even into the start of free agency, in its search for a star. Unlike with a team option, it’s not draft-day-or-bust.
Advertisement
The agent-team relationship plays a hand in these situations, too. Harris is represented by CAA, Knicks president Leon Rose’s former agency.
For what it’s worth, Houston Rockets guard Eric Gordon, whose $20.9 million salary for 2023-24 also is non-guaranteed, is in a similar contractual situation. Pairing Gordon and Fournier’s expiring money together this summer would allow the Knicks to bring back a player on a super-max contract. Gordon’s contract doesn’t guarantee until June 28. Fournier and Harris or Fournier and Rose would get them close but not all the way there.
I’m not sure teams have sought after Harris and it doesn’t sound like the Magic are dangling him, so it’s difficult to get an exact read on his market, but let’s travel back to seven deadlines ago for an idea of what he may cost: In 2016, the Charlotte Hornets traded matching salary and a couple of second-rounders for Courtney Lee, who was on an expiring contract. That’s about what 3-and-D role players go for when they can become free agents in the upcoming summer.
Meanwhile, the Magic are wallowing at the bottom of the conference. They held onto Harris at the 2022 deadline and re-signed him over the summer. Maybe they want to keep him again. But if a suitor called about him, they would have to pick up.
According to league sources in contact with Houston, the Rockets have insisted on a first-round pick for Gordon. But they may be forced to settle for less.
The paradox of choice
Maybe it would be easier for the Knicks to make trades if they had fewer draft picks.
Hear me out …
The Knicks have eight first-rounders they can flip leading up to the deadline: up to four of their own, which they could send out unprotected, and four protected ones from other teams (the Wizards’ in 2023, the Mavericks’ in 2023, the Detroit Pistons’ in 2023 and the Milwaukee Bucks’ in 2025).
Advertisement
But because they’re so loaded with picks, teams can keep asking for more.
Use the Donovan Mitchell trade as an example. If the Knicks offered three first-round picks for the All-Star guard, the Utah Jazz could have asked for more, whereas the Cleveland Cavaliers ponying up three first-rounders for Mitchell was all they had. The vibes are different when an executive can counter any counter with an emphatic, “We are giving you everything!”
Surely, this is a first-world problem. It’s always better to have more than less. But it’s a dynamic I consistently find fascinating in Knicks trade negotiations.
(Photo of Derrick Rose and Gary Harris: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)
