This system is badly depleted from years of trades and lost draft picks — they didn’t have a first-round pick in 2020 or 2021, or a second-round pick in the latter year. They also may end up whiffing on their first-rounders from 2016 (Forrest Whitley, see below), 2017 (J.B. Bukauskas, just DFA’d by Seattle), 2018 (Seth Beer), and 2019 (Korey Lee, still here with a chance to be something). It’s been later picks like Jeremy Peña and Hunter Brown, plus some real player development successes, that have bailed out the major-league team as the well runs dry. It’s quite possible that there are only two players in the whole system right now above the DSL who’ll end up as above-average major leaguers.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Hunter Brown, RHP (Top 100 ranking: No. 80)
Age (as of July 1): 24 | 6-2 | 212 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 166 in 2019
Brown pitched for Division II Wayne State as an amateur, where he showed big arm strength but below-average command and control, walking 11 percent of batters as a junior even though he was facing lesser competition. His control issues have persisted up through Triple A, as he walked 10.6 percent of batters he faced for Sugar Land, but his stuff has improved since college to the point where he could remain a starter if he can throw enough strikes. Brown is strong and powers through his delivery even with an inconsistent arm stroke, working 94-100 mph with his four-seamer and getting good extension out front to add some deception. He works with both slider and curveball, with ridiculous velocity on the slider but not much spin or break, while his curveball has just average spin but huge vertical break, coming out of his hand with diametrically opposed spin-based direction to his fastball. He barely uses his changeup but has managed to avoid a platoon split so far just with the fastball and both breaking balls, getting a lot of chases on the latter two pitches. He could be a No. 2 starter if the command and control ever improve, or a workhorse starter who walks 80-plus batters a year, or he might be relegated to the bullpen if he can’t throw enough strikes.
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2. Yainer Diaz, C/1B
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 195 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016
The Astros didn’t protect Diaz from the Rule 5 draft in 2021, the one that never happened due to the lockout, and I think they got away with one there. Diaz is clearly a big leaguer of some sort, and if you think he can catch he’s an above-average regular. He’s a bat-first guy who hits the ball hard and after fixing his stride, where he used to step in the bucket, he turned more of that hard contact into game power. Behind the plate, he’s rough across the board and has a long way to go to be able to play it every day, from below-average blocking and receiving to a long arm stroke that makes his 70 arm strength play down. It’s quite possible the bat is good enough that you can live with the defensive shortcomings. If the latter is too much, he could be a solid regular at first who can always go behind the plate for 20 or so games a year. He’s in that “just missed the just missed” category I’ve mentioned a few times, in the top 125ish globally.
3. Drew Gilbert, OF
Age: 22 | 5-9 | 185 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 28 in 2022
Gilbert was the Astros’ first-round pick in 2022 and was off to a nice start in Low A when he crashed into the wall and dislocated his non-throwing elbow, ending his pro debut after nine games. He’s a plus defender in center with a 60 arm and good feel to hit, although right now it’s more contact than power. He’s 5-9 and on the slender side, but there’s a little projection there for at least high-doubles power, maybe 40 doubles and 10-15 homers at his peak. He’s got a high floor as an extra outfielder thanks to his defense and contact skills but I’ll be very disappointed if he’s not at least a solid regular.
4. Colin Barber, OF
Age: 22 | 6-0 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 136 in 2019
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Barber played just 16 games in 2021 before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, then only got into 66 games last year around an ankle injury that limited him to just 11 games after July 8. He’s still a potential power/speed guy who could get to 20 homers and 20 steals, showing improved plate discipline last year, but he also played in hitter-friendly Asheville and had a huge home/road split, so take his 2022 performance with a grain of salt.
5. Jacob Melton, OF
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 208 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 64 in 202
Melton was their second-round pick in 2022 out of Oregon State, where he made a swing change going into 2021 that helped him stay back on the ball and pick up different pitch types better. He’s even toolsier than Gilbert but less polished, a 55 defender in center with more pop and 20/20 upside. His pro debut started hilariously badly, as he went 0-for-17 with 6 Ks in the GCL, then moved up to Low A — I mean, he didn’t exactly earn that promotion, did he? — and hit .324/.424/.578 in 19 games for Fayetteville. It’ll be a challenge for the Astros to get him and Gilbert playing time in center, since both should start in High A, although I suppose the best-case scenario is one of the two hits well enough to move up to Double A before the midpoint. Gilbert has more probability than Melton but Melton has more overall upside.
6. Korey Lee, C
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left/Right | Throws: Left/Right
Drafted: No. 32 in 2019
Lee saw his strikeout rate jump from 17 percent in Double A in 2021 to 28 percent last year in Triple A, selling out way too much for power (going from 11 homers to 25 year over year) and leaving himself vulnerable to breaking stuff down and away, even missing more in zone. He’s far better off as a contact guy who’ll run into 12-15 homers a year and is a plus defender, probably not doing enough with the bat to be more than a soft regular, but that would be miles better than he was in 2022. I’m not giving up on him by any means. He just has to get back to where he was in 2021 and stop trying to be something he’s not at the plate.
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7. Forrest Whitley, RHP
Age: 25 | 6-7 | 238 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 17 in 2016
Whitley returned to the mound for the first time since 2019, having missed 2021 due to Tommy John surgery, and his stuff was completely intact. He was consistently 94-97 mph with a hammer curveball, working with five distinct pitches, none of which was worse than average. It was, again, all about control and command — when he finishes out front, he’s electric, but he threw only 61 percent of pitches for strikes in Triple A. He doesn’t need to pitch away from contact, and he does throw the offspeed stuff for strikes enough to think he could be a 40 percent fastball guy as a starter. I don’t see how you can give up on Whitley even with five years of struggles and injuries, since he’s still got huge stuff and actually has a delivery he can repeat.
8. Pedro Leon, OF/2B
Age: 25 | 5-10 | 170 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Leon is probably the best pure athlete in the system, at least a 70 runner with plus raw power and electric actions on both sides of the ball, but his hit tool hasn’t progressed at all, with a 29 percent strikeout rate in Triple A and too much weak contact for someone with his bat speed. He’s also been in search of a position; the Astros tried to put him at shortstop but it was bad, and second base is probably a stretch, while center at least allows him to use his speed to make up for any deficiencies in his reads on balls. The Astros are trying to work with him on some mechanical tweaks at the plate to get him some more time to recognize pitches, and to understand what pitches to try to pull and which ones to put in play so he can use his speed. If this were a best tools ranking, he’d be first on the list, but at some point he has to do more damage on contact to be more than an up/down guy.
9. Justin Dirden, OF
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 209 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
Signed as an undrafted free agent in 2020
I swore this guy wasn’t real, but apparently he is. A few small mechanical adjustments at the plate helped Dirden, signed in 2020 as an undrafted free agent out of Southeast Missouri State, explode last year, as he hit .324/.411/.616 in Double A before a late summer promotion to Triple A, where he hit .242/.305/.398 in 32 games as pitchers exploited his willingness to expand when he fell behind in the count. He’s below average in center, but should be a very good fourth outfielder who can move through all three spots, and might even end up a regular in a corner if he can cut down on the chase.
10. Logan Cerny, OF
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 295 in 2021
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Acquired in the trade that sent Garrett Stubbs to Philly, Cerny is a quick-twitch athlete with plus speed and 55 power, potentially a plus defender in center, but was too old for Low A last year at 22 and still struck out 30 percent of the time. Philadelphia’s 10th-round pick in 2021 out of Troy University, he had trouble making contact even in the mid-major Sun Belt as an amateur. He’s an all-or-nothing sort of prospect — if he doesn’t cut down on the swing and miss, he won’t get out of Double A, but he has everyday upside if he gets the K rate down to even 25 percent.
11. Will Wagner, OF
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 538 in 2021
Billy Wagner’s kid is actually a hard-hitting corner bat, probably a solid bench/platoon guy who can fill in at third, first, and in the outfield corners but lacks the power to play every day. He can hit right-handed pitching well enough to be the strong side of a platoon for a second-division team, he can whack a fastball, and he doesn’t chase. He seems like a good candidate for the kind of launch-angle optimization that turned guys like Max Muncy into All-Stars. If not, he’s probably just that quality reserve hitter who’s pretty close to helping in the majors, but with no chance to be an everyday guy, especially since he doesn’t hit lefties.
12. Miguel Ullola, RHP
Age: 21| 6-1 | 184 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2021
Ullola skipped the GCL and went right to Low A last year as a 20-year-old and punched out 38 percent of batters, working primarily with a live fastball with an approach angle that makes it tough for hitters to square up. He also walked 18 percent of guys, and hit 7, so nearly three-fifths of the hitters he faced didn’t even put the ball in play. He’s been up to 98 and the fastball has ride and a little cut, getting whiffs up in the zone. His control needs work and his offspeed stuff is a work in progress, but if you’re wondering who might be the next Cristian Javier, another guy who surprises because hitters just can not hit his fastball, this is your man.
13. Joe Perez, 3B/1B
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 198 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 53 in 2017
Perez’s career has been marred by injuries, including Tommy John surgery a few years back, and he missed over two months last year with an oblique strain. He makes very hard contact and can show big power in BP, but in games his swing is pretty flat and he puts the ball on the ground too much, which makes him seem like a candidate for a swing change to get him to hit the ball in the air more. He’s a third baseman with plenty of arm but doesn’t have great range and may be better served at another corner, or just moving around the four corner positions. As is, he’s a bench guy, but if he can get some more loft to his swing, he could easily be an above-average regular.
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14. Luis Santana, IF
Age: 23 | 5-9 | 196 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016
Acquired what seems like a lifetime ago in the J.D. Davis trade, Santana bounced back a little bit in 2022 with a healthy season in High-A Asheville, albeit at age 22, with the contact/on-base skills that I liked at the time of the trade when I thought he might get to everyday upside. I was wrong about that but I think he could end up a nice utility player who can fill in at second and third with value to the contact and maybe 20-25 doubles if he played a full season, although the Astros need to get him moving up the chain now that he’s healthy and producing. He’ll be old for High A at 23, but probably needs to start there rather than jumping to Corpus Christi.
15. Spencer Arrighetti, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-2 | 186 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 178 in 2021
Arrighetti is 92-94 mph with a 55 slider, largely ditching the curveball he also used in college, with a changeup he barely uses but is going to have to develop more to stay as a starter. The slider has late downward break but lacks power, and he’s pitching more north-south with that and the fastball, so even cutting the fastball might help him go more to all four sides. He has the build and delivery to start if he gets the changeup, which has good action but for which he doesn’t show great feel, to be a solid-average third pitch.
16. Zach Daniels, OF
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 131 in 2020
Daniels had a superficially great year, but he was mostly repeating High A as a 23-year-old and played half his games in Asheville, a great hitter’s park. He’s a plus runner with doubles power, selling out somewhat last year to get to 23 homers but with a 30 percent strikeout rate that’s just not sustainable. He could be a solid fourth outfielder if he gives up some of those homers to rein in the contact rate, especially since he has the speed for part-time play in center.
17. Ryan Clifford, OF
Age: 19 | 6-3 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 343 in 2022
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Houston took Clifford in the 11th round in 2022 and signed him for a very precise $1,256,530 bonus, third-highest among all day three players last year. He’s already well filled out with plus raw power now, even with a no-stride approach, but he’s got a ways to go as a hitter, mostly ambushing fastballs and collapsing his back side too often to make consistent contact. He’s a 40-45 runner who’ll play right or left field, so he has to hit. It’s a small sample, but it’s a positive sign that he walked quite a bit in his brief pro debut, 22 times in 101 PA between the FCL and Low A.
18. Misael Tamarez, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-1 | 206 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2019
Tamarez has the three pitches to start, sitting 93-95 with a 55 slider and a changeup that shows good separation but is probably too firm. His delivery, however, has effort, and I think his late arm acceleration makes it hard for him to repeat it. He walked nearly 13 percent of hitters in Double A last year and then walked 15 guys in 18 innings in four Triple-A starts. He’s only 22 but there are multiple reasons to think he’s a reliever, from the 40 control to the delivery itself to his modest platoon split.
19. Trey Dombroski, LHP
Age: 22 | 6-5 | 235 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 133 in 2022
Dombroski was the Astros’ fourth-round pick in 2022 and offered some of the best command and control of any pitcher in the draft class. His slider and curve are both 55s and the changeup has big action, enough to maybe be average, but his fastball is light, mostly 88-91 even pitching once a week. He was homer-prone because of the lack of velocity or big fastball life, succeeding in college because he never walked guys (and maybe didn’t face the toughest competition in the MAAC, and yes, the one with two A’s). Scouts loved his makeup and his intelligence, so while he needs a little more juice to be anything better than a swing man, I give him more of a chance than the typical draftee to figure it out.
20. Luis Báez, OF
Age: 19 | 6-1 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2022
Signed last January for a $1.2 million bonus, Báez tied for seventh in the DSL last year with 9 homers, and there’s more power to come. He’s got a super-projectable body and looks like he might not be done growing, with strong legs and easy power to the swing. He gets out over his front side early and struck out a quarter of the time in the DSL, which doesn’t mean a ton on its own but bears watching when combined with the concern that he’s leaking and won’t pick up spin as well. He’ll end up in a corner but I see 30-homer upside if he hits.
Others of note
I don’t really care that right-hander Alex Santos went 0-11 as a starter in Low A last year, although I imagine he cares at least a little. His fastball has backed up slightly, though, and he was extremely homer-prone, as he also doesn’t have an average breaking ball yet. He’s very inexperienced, with just 124 1/3 pro innings and limited pitching time as a New York City high school kid who was drafted in the pandemic year … Shortstop Cristian Gonzalez hit just .186/.255/.272 away from hitter-friendly Asheville last year, and he didn’t exactly blow the doors off at home with a .317 OBP. He’s decent defensively but he’s very tall for shortstop at 6-4 and the odds are he moves to third … Right-hander Andrew Taylor was their third pick last year, taken with the pick they got for losing Carlos Correa as a free agent, working mostly with a four-seamer that missed bats in the zone at Central Michigan. He throws strikes but doesn’t have an average second pitch yet and his long arm swing might be hard to repeat … Third-rounder Michael Knorr was a senior at Coastal Carolina, a right-hander who was 93-95 mph with a sharp slider in the mid-80s. He has enough of a changeup to go out as a starter … I don’t think it’s over for Tyler Whittaker, the team’s first pick (third round) in 2021, but he struck out 180 times in 515 PA in Low A as a 19-year-old, and as someone who’s going to play a corner, probably right field, that’s a non-starter … I’d like to see right-hander Jaime Melendez move to the bullpen, even though he’ll be just 21 this year and pitched in Double A in 2022. He’s listed at 5-8 and he comes from a very high slot, with good velocity but no average second pitch, and walked 16 percent of batters faced last year. He had very little platoon split, though, and that might make him a decent middle reliever.
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2023 impact
Both Brown and Díaz will probably log significant time in the majors, although there isn’t an immediate need for another starting pitcher or a regular catcher in Houston.
The fallen
Grae Kessinger was their second-round pick in 2019, No. 68th, despite a rough swing and no power. Even some swing adjustments last year couldn’t help him hit as a repeater in Double A, where he hit .211/.327/.366 as a 24-year-old.
Sleeper
I like both Gilbert and Melton, but while Gilbert is the more valuable prospect right now because of his probability, Melton has the upside to make a jump well into the top 100 in a year.
(Photo of Hunter Brown: Doug Murray / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
