NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Arizona ascends to No. 1 line, and 4 gnarly seed calls

The fishing village of Nazare, Portugal, was long known for welcoming beachgoers in the summer and then rolling up its sidewalks during the sleepy offseason. That all changed about 12 years ago, when the town suddenly became famous for something else: big wave surfing.

Europe’s largest underwater canyon — three miles deep and 125 feet long — lurks just off Praia do Norte beach, creating swells the size of office buildings. American surfer Garret McNamara set a world record by riding a 78-foot wave in 2011, kicking off a flood of tourists and adventure-seekers to Nazare in the winter. The quest to conquer this giant water wall was the subject of the recent HBO docuseries “100 Foot Wave.”

The waves of Nazare can create some dizzying highs — North Carolina surfer Mason Barnes claimed a 100-footer last year, though it was not officially validated — and terrifying lows. Several people have been injured, and Brazil’s Marcio Freire died last month while practicing at Praia do Norte.

The stakes aren’t nearly as dangerous for college basketball teams trying to paddle their way into the NCAA Tournament without wiping out. But a handful of them have already taken their fans (and bracketologists) for quite a ride and might still experience many ups and downs before Selection Sunday, now 39 days away. Let’s take a look at four teams who might cause some gnarly decisions for the selection committee:

Creighton

A six-game losing streak starting in late December sank the Bluejays all the way down to 51st in the NET rankings. On Thursday morning, they were back up to 17th despite a 14-8 record. How much will the committee excuse that one bad stretch, much of which came without star big man Ryan Kalkbrenner? Creighton is 11th in KenPom and Sagarin and ninth in BPI, showing its upper-echelon ability when at full strength. We have the Bluejays as a No. 7 seed this week, but their range of outcomes is seemingly vast.

Indiana

The Hoosiers crested as high as eighth in the NET and as low as 37th. They were 10-6 after losing to Penn State on Jan. 11, dealing with injuries to two key contributors and hovering on the bubble. Then came a five-game winning streak before Tuesday’s loss at Maryland. IU’s seed range on BracketMatrix.com Thursday was between 5 and 9. We have the Hoosiers as a No. 6 this week, but they have a higher ceiling than that.

Duke

The Blue Devils have gone from a high of 11 in NET back in December to a low of 32, and trying to figure out just how good this team is might cause sea sickness. Neutral-court nonconference wins over Xavier and Iowa will hold up, and there are no bad losses to be found, but Duke is just 3-6 in Quad 1. The next three contests — vs. North Carolina on Saturday, followed by road games at Miami and Virginia — should go a long way toward determining the eventual seed placement. We have the Blue Devils as a No. 6 heading into the UNC showdown.

Arkansas

The Razorbacks have surfed between 10 and 31 in the NET, though their brightest days came before Trevon Brazile’s season-ending knee injury and when stud freshman Nick Smith Jr. was in the mix. Even the results-based metrics struggle to agree on this team: KPI has the Hogs 19th, while Strength of Record says 42nd. Arkansas is just 1-5 in Quad 1 and still must play at Kentucky, Tennessee and Alabama, so even making the tournament is no guarantee. This week, we hang a 10 on ’em.

Other notes on this week’s bracket:

• Our top two overall seeds, Purdue and Alabama, remain unchanged this week. Yes, the Crimson Tide — speaking of volatile waves — crashed hard at Oklahoma last weekend, but Bama’s body of work remains strong enough to stay afloat. There are four strong candidates for the other two top spots: Tennessee, Kansas, Arizona and Houston. Tennessee won a huge home game against Texas last weekend but fell at Florida Wednesday night, renewing questions about the Volunteers’ offense. We went with Kansas, which leads the country with nine Quad 1 wins against the nation’s best schedule, and Arizona, which has five Top 25 wins including one over Tennessee.

That means the top two teams in most metrics — Houston and Tennessee — are on our No. 2 seed line. Um … swell?

• In case you missed it, Eamonn Brennan’s Bubble Watch debuted this week. We disagreed with Eamonn’s assessment of Pittsburgh, which subsequently cemented its tournament case with a win at North Carolina on Wednesday. Oklahoma State, fresh off a road win at Oklahoma, is our last team in this week, while Wisconsin is our last team out.

• This week’s Final Four pairings are South vs. West and Midwest vs. East, based on our seed list, which you can find below. An asterisk denotes conference autobid qualifier. We won’t be as active in the comments as usual thanks to some other obligations, but if we can’t stop in we’ll at least wave.

First Four (Dayton)

Seed	Team
16	Morehead State*
16	Maryland Eastern Shore*
11	West Virginia
11	Kentucky
16	Fairleigh Dickinson*
16	Southeast Louisiana*
11	Nevada
11	Oklahoma State

South Region (Louisville)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Purdue*
16	Fairleigh Dickinson*/Southeast Louisiana*	Columbus
8	North Carolina
9	New Mexico
4	TCU
13	Bradley*	Orlando
5	UConn
12	Charleston*
3	Baylor
14	Furman*	Denver
6	Miami
11	USC
2	Tennessee
15	Siena*	Greensboro
7	Iowa
10	Memphis

West Region (Las Vegas)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Arizona
16	UNC Asheville*	Sacramento
8	Maryland
9	Missouri
4	Iowa State
13	UC Santa Barbara*	Orlando
5	Saint Mary's*
12	Oral Roberts*
3	Xavier
14	Southern Utah*	Columbus
6	Duke
11	Oklahoma State/Nevada
2	Texas*
15	Eastern Washington*	Denver
7	San Diego State*
10	Pittsburgh

Midwest Region (Kansas City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Alabama*
16	Morehead State*/Maryland Eastern Shore*	Birmingham
8	Florida Atlantic*
9	Michigan State
4	Gonzaga
13	Louisiana*	Albany
5	Providence
12	Kent State*
3	Kansas State
14	Milwaukee*	Des Moines
6	Illinois
11	West Virginia/Kentucky
2	Houston*
15	Vermont*	Birmingham
7	Creighton
10	Northwestern

East Region (New York City)

Seed	Team	Site
1	Kansas
16	Southern*	Des Moines
8	Auburn
9	Clemson
4	Marquette
13	VCU*	Albany
5	Rutgers
12	Liberty*
3	Virginia*
14	Colgate*	Greensboro
6	Indiana
11	Boise State
2	UCLA*
15	Princeton*	Sacramento
7	NC State
10	Arkansas

(Photo of Creighton’s Arthur Kaluma and Arkansas’ Ricky Council IV: Marco Garcia / AP)