No Stars player has caused a greater disconnect between the organization and its fan base than Ryan Suter. Dallas’ front office and coaching staff value Suter while large segments of fans don’t understand why.
Despite playing more minutes than everybody but Miro Heiskanen, Suter is tied for 12th on the team in points with 13. He is the only player to play more than 15 games and not have more than one goal this season. The conversation around Suter and his role on the Stars is complicated. The ironic thing is that both sides — the one that winces when Suter is on the ice and the one that puts him on the ice — actually share a common conclusion.
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In this space, we’ll examine both perspectives and explore what the Stars need to do to maximize their situation with Suter.
Context
The Seattle Kraken selected Jamie Oleksiak in the expansion draft in 2021. They gave him a five-year, $23 million deal with a $4.6 million AAV. Despite mutual interest in a reunion between the Stars and Oleksiak, he made the wise decision to take that money and the Stars made the wise decision to not match. However, the Stars, who did not think they would be in the market for a top-four defenseman that summer, suddenly had a void to fill.
As the Stars explored options, they had some considerations. They were weeks away from putting a generous long-term extension on the table for John Klingberg. They had just signed Heiskanen to a big deal and had pending extensions with Jason Robertson, Jake Oettinger and Roope Hintz. The salary cap was still flat and they were tight against it.
Before the deal with Suter materialized — four years, $14.6 million, with a $3.65 million AAV and a full no-move clause — Dallas was close to a reunion with Alex Goligoski. The veteran left-handed defenseman spent six seasons in Dallas before five years in Arizona leading up to that summer. Goligoski, who is six months younger than Suter, ended up signing in Minnesota on a one-year, $5 million deal. The Stars were aware that an already-declining Suter would be 40 years old in the final year of his contract but they conceded on term to save on money.
To that point, Suter had played a premiere role on whatever team he was on but the Stars didn’t need that. They signed him to be a No. 4 defenseman, essentially a bridge figure for the team until Thomas Harley was ready for the big stage. For the cost and expectations, Suter was fine in that role last season.
As is the case with most players in their late 30s, the arrow usually doesn’t point up. That’s where the issues begin this season.
If there was hope that Suter’s game would rise in his second year after a one-year acclimation period, like what Joe Pavelski went through, it has not come close. According to Natural Stat Trick, Suter was No. 2 on the team in goals for percentage last season at five-on-five; this season, he’s No. 6, just barely ahead of Nils Lundkvist. Last season, Suter was No. 4 in expected goals percentage; this season, he’s dead last on the team at No. 7.
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A significant part of the contrast certainly has to do with his defensive partner. Among the four Dallas pairings last season that played at least 300 minutes together, Suter was on the best and the worst in terms of expected goals. According to MoneyPuck, with Heiskanen, Suter was at the top while with Klingberg, he was in the basement. Even this season, when Suter has been with Heiskanen, he’s been on a top-two pairing on the team. Without Heiskanen, he’s on two of the three worst pairings.
Stars head coach Pete DeBoer prefers his defensemen to play on their strong side, something that eluded Heiskanen for all but his rookie year into this season. Suter doesn’t have the flexibility to play on his right to allow the left-handed Heiskanen to play on his strong side so the pair was split up (Heiskanen is now primarily with right-handed Colin Miller, and unsurprisingly, they grade out as the best pairing on the team).
But Suter’s struggles go beyond his defensive partner. The most glaring issue is speed. As the NHL trends toward a faster style, Suter has slowed down considerably. Add in DeBoer’s system, which has considerably more pace than what the Stars played with last season, and Suter’s lack of speed is on display on a nightly basis.
Suter’s tape from this season is littered with examples but perhaps none spotlights the issue more than the short-handed goal his former team, the Wild, scored against the Stars in early December. Twenty-three-year-old Connor Dewar not only beat Suter in a foot race to the puck on a breakaway but Suter was too far behind to even contest the shot as Dewar closed in on Oettinger.
On Jan. 3 in Los Angeles, Suter was the only player on the Stars that was on the ice for all three goals — two even strength and one power play — the Kings scored in a 3-2 win. The Kings’ first goal exposed Suter’s loss of step and importance of a supremely talented partner. Rasmus Kupari was racing on, fresh off a change. You can see Suter read the play even before Kupari gets to the blue line. Despite that, Suter was left behind as a non-factor. If his partner was Heiskanen, perhaps the gap gets closed quicker but Miller was unable to close and Kupari got a clean look at the net.
The loss of speed is an unfortunate reality of aging but something that has crept up more this season in Suter’s game has been puck management, or lack thereof. In a game that’s all about timing, fumbling the puck on the stick can throw off the entire operation. It’s even worse when the unforced fumbling happens right in front of the net with arguably the greatest goal scorer of all time within striking distance, as was the case in Washington, D.C., in December.
An example of how this can throw things off came in the third game of the season against the Winnipeg Jets. At the end of a power play, Suter fumbled the puck moving backward and had to reset. It cost the Stars one more look on the power play and threw off the spacing on the ice.
Ironically, the Stars scored later in the sequence and Suter got an assist, thanks to Tyler Seguin’s patience resetting the ice but more often than not, those fumbles have been costly to the Stars.
If these issues with Suter are regular and evident, along with his statistical ineffectiveness, then why is he on the ice so much?
NHL coaches, and front offices for that matter, have a longer leash for a physically limited player who thinks the game well rather than vice versa. It’s worth noting that two coaches, vastly different in style, have ridden with Suter. If a player is physically limited, others on the ice can help compensate for his shortcomings. But if a player is intellectually limited, the physical talents don’t hold much value. That kind of player also often brings down the play of those around him. That’s a big reason why Suter’s play has routinely been salvaged playing with Heiskanen.
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An example of this comes from two weeks ago in San Jose. Suter was paired with the 22-year-old Lundkvist, who is still developing and learning the NHL. Sharks defenseman Erik Karlsson sprung Alexander Barabanov down the left side. Suter, knowing he didn’t have the speed to close on him, rode Barabanov wide to force him to take it around the net. Lundkvist had his eyes on the puck and left his assignment to bite on Barabanov. That left Nick Bonino, who Lundkvist should have stayed with and in front of, wide open in front of the net for an easy goal.
Suter’s move was enough to kill the play and make the Sharks reset but Lundkvist’s mistake cost the Stars. Whereas some may see that as Suter getting beat around the corner, coaches and evaluators see that missed assignment from Lundkvist. That was Lundkvist’s last game before a four-game stretch of healthy scratches.
There is also Suter’s situational awareness, a product of experience. Last season, the Stars came into a March contest against the Montreal Canadiens, the worst team in the NHL, riding a four-game losing streak. With five minutes left in regulation, Klingberg scored a goal to send the game to overtime. With 10 seconds left in overtime, Klingberg scored again to end the losing streak and get the Stars the win.
That’s how that particular game will mostly be remembered. However, midway through overtime, Klingberg committed a penalty and the Stars played most of the second half of the period on the penalty kill. As the Montreal power play expired, Esa Lindell shot the puck wide. It rimmed around and up the wall. Suter was the lone Star in position as two Canadiens players were coming from the top in hot pursuit. Suter calmly flipped the puck into the benches to draw a stoppage.
Twenty-six seconds later, Klingberg scored the game winner. While the exclamation marks make the loudest noise, those little things are not lost among those watching with a critical eye. Even this season, amongst Suter’s struggles, there are positive plays. Most of them are because of his hockey sense and experience.
Defending a two-on-one is as much mental as it is physical, knowing who to take and how to play a disadvantageous situation. Against the Blues in late November, Suter played the passing lane, knowing Heiskanen was going to play the puck handler and force the pass. Suter’s interception led to an immediate scoring chance the other way:
Five days earlier, against the Blackhawks, Suter read Patrick Kane and timed his pokecheck perfectly to aggressively neutralize the play.
Suter’s defensive work with his stick has been solid all season. The Stars’ first loss of the season came in Toronto and may be best remembered for Jamie Benn getting ripped by Nick Robertson and Robertson scoring the other way. But seconds before that, Mitch Marner had a golden opportunity to end the game on a breakaway, which Suter nullified from behind.
There are other examples of veteran heads-up plays by Suter. He’s rescued goaltenders by stopping goals in big moments, whether it be with his stick against the Islanders or without his stick against the Devils. For all of Suter’s regressions physically, the mental part of his game remains sharp, which is why coaches feel comfortable putting him on the ice on a nightly basis.
Suter is clearly limited physically but he also has value for what he brings intellectually. Where the compromise comes into play is regarding his usage. It’s something DeBoer himself mentioned in early December.
“Sutes is a very valuable guy for us but he’s not 20 years old anymore and he can’t play 25 or 28 minutes and every situation,” DeBoer said.
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Minute reduction is the easiest step, and a good template for that is the most recent sample. In the four games in which Lundkvist was scratched, Joel Hanley slid into the lineup and was paired with Suter. In the two weeks leading into the All-Star break, Suter’s ice time was fifth among Stars defensemen and seventh overall on the team. That’s much different than being No. 2 on the team, as he is over the 51-game sample of the season.
The other thing will be to fade Suter off of the power play, where he currently runs point on the second unit. DeBoer had already taken steps to do that in December when he was rotating Lundkvist in for Suter up top instead of having Lundkvist play the half-wall with Suter at the point. Lundkvist didn’t prove to be ready for the opportunity at the time but the transition plan was already in motion. It’s also worth noting that Lundkvist’s recent experience on the power play was on the half-wall so running point is a learning experience for him.
Both things are inevitable for Suter. The Stars are waiting for two young defensemen — Lundkvist and Harley — to become regular NHLers. Both are very close and will require top-four minutes, when ready. Both also specialize on the power play (not to mention Logan Stankoven’s potential insertion there as well).
The Stars will soon face an interesting situation, as all six of their regular defensemen this season are under contract for next season as well. Given Harley’s anticipated rise to the NHL, somebody will have to come out of the lineup. If it’s a lefty-for-lefty swap, it certainly won’t be Heiskanen or Lindell. It’s a discussion that’s coming but in the present, Suter is a lineup staple.
Father Time is undefeated. The Stars signed Suter in 2021 to be a top-four defenseman who plays on the power play. That was already when one team thought it was in their best interest to pay Suter a hefty sum of cash to not play for them. Trying to keep Suter fixed in that predetermined role doesn’t do anybody any favors — not Suter and not the Stars. Suter may be overcompensated for this role but he is now a third-pairing defenseman who kills penalties. It’s the best path to maximizing what Suter has left in the tank and minimizing his liabilities hurting the team.
(Top photo: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images )
