NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Purdue claims summit, while the Mountain West peaks

NCAA Tournament Bracket Watch: Purdue claims summit, while the Mountain West peaks
By Brian Bennett
Jan 20, 2023

Summiting Mount Everest used to be a rare and celebrated feat. Between 1953 — when Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay became the first known people to reach the 29,000-foot peak — and 1980, only 100 people had done it. But in recent years, adventure tourists have flocked to Nepal for guided expeditions of Everest; about 800 people per year are now attempting the climb, with thousands more visiting the surrounding area.

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This has led to massive overcrowding on the mountain, creating dangerous conditions — and piles of garbage. National Geographic reports that each climber generates about 18 pounds of trash, and that doesn’t include the estimated 16,000 pounds of human waste left in base camps. And you know what flows downhill …

 

Gross.

Let’s clear our minds of mountain waste and focus instead on the Mountain West, where treasure, not trash, can be found at the top.*

*  — We profusely apologize for this stinky segue

Entering Thursday night, the Mountain West was ranked as the fifth-best conference in the country by NET, ahead of the Pac-12 and the ACC (KenPom and Sagarin rate the league seventh). Five Mountain West teams have scaled into the top 35 of NET: Boise State (No. 19), San Diego State (30), New Mexico (31), Nevada (33) and Utah State (34). Here’s why that’s significant: In the short history of the NET era, only two teams have finished in the top 35 and failed to earn an NCAA Tournament bid — NC State (33rd) and Clemson (35th), both in 2019. NET is merely a sorting tool, but it’s also sorta good at predicting NCAA Tournament selection and seeding.

So the Mountain West is in great shape to grab five bids and match its 2013 peak, right? Well, let’s slow that ascent just a bit.

The conference deserves much credit for being highly competitive and scheduling smartly — especially since Power 6 teams have zero interest in playing in Viejas Arena or The Pit, much less trekking to Boise, Logan, Fort Collins or Laramie. But that’s also contributing to the one crevasse in Mountain West contenders’ otherwise laudable free solo: big wins.

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The team in the best shape from that standpoint is New Mexico. Richard Pitino’s 16-2 Lobos own the league’s two best wins: at Saint Mary’s in November and last week’s 76-67 victory at Viejas over San Diego State. The other four Mountain West contenders have combined for just two Quad 1 wins: San Diego State beat Ohio State in Maui, while Nevada took down Boise State at home last month. No team has earned an at-large bid without at least one Quad 1 victory in the NET era, so Boise State and Utah State have some work to do. (The Aggies also have two Quad 4 losses, which … ouch).

The good news for the league is that these teams are so well-regarded by NET that there are multiple Quad 1 opportunities still to be had against one another. New Mexico and San Diego State have five Q1 games left on the schedule, for example, while Boise State has four. By comparison’s sake, Arizona has four remaining Q1 games on its Pac-12 schedule. Somebody has to win those games, and boost its at-large case in the process.

What should we do with these teams in this bracket today, 52 days from Selection Sunday? We have three Mountain West schools in: New Mexico (No. 7 seed), San Diego State (8) and Boise State (11). We’re fascinated by what the selection committee would do with a team with a profile like Nevada and Utah State. Ultimately, if the Mountain West — which formed 25 years ago this spring in the Denver airport — wants to earn more respect, it has to start winning games after Selection Sunday. The league put four teams in the dance last year and failed to advance any of them; it hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2018 and is just 1-11 in opening-round contests since 2016. (San Diego State surely would have changed the narrative in 2020, but alas).

Mountain West fans are enjoying the elevated view this season is providing. It would be a shame to let that go to waste.

Some other notes on this week’s field:

• We have a slight shakeup on the top line, with Purdue bouldering its way to the No. 1 overall seed. We’re not punishing Kansas for losing at Kansas State so much as rewarding the Boilermakers for their unmatched seven Quad 1 wins. You could put our top four seeds in just about any order and be justified.

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• The harder call was on the No. 2 line. UConn and Arizona have fallen off, while Gonzaga (to Loyola Marymount!), Tennessee, Texas and Xavier (at DePaul!) all lost within the past week. We decided to reward Kansas State and Iowa State, which are both tied atop the Big 12 mosh pit. We expect this to remain fluid over the next several weeks.

• Speaking of teams with great metrics but a lack of results, Ohio State tumbles all the way to one of the last two spots in the field. The Buckeyes are 28th in NET (15th in BPI, 21st in KenPom) but are just 10-8 and riding a five-game Big Ten losing streak. With games upcoming against Iowa, at Illinois and at Indiana, their season is on the brink. At least for this week, it makes for a fun First Four matchup: Ohio State vs. Kentucky in Dayton, anyone?

• This week’s Final Four matchups are South vs. East and Midwest vs. West, based on our seed list, which is below. An * denotes conference autobid qualifier. Questions or gripes? Bring them to the comments section, and we’ll come down from the mountaintop to discuss.

First Four OutNext Four OutLast Four InLast Four Byes
Wake Forest
Memphis
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Penn State
Northwestern
UCF
Utah State
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
Nevada
Seton Hall
Kentucky
Boise State
Multi-bid conferences
LeagueBids
Big Ten
11
ACC
7
Big 12
7
SEC
6
Big East
5
Pac-12
3
Mountain West
3
WCC
2
Seed list
1
Purdue*
Kansas*
Houston*
Alabama*
2
UCLA*
Kansas State
Tennessee
Iowa State
3
Texas
Virginia*
Arizona
Gonzaga*
4
Xavier*
UConn
Marquette
Miami
5
TCU
Baylor
Rutgers
Providence
6
Saint Mary's
NC State
Michigan State
Duke
7
Illinois
Missouri
New Mexico
Iowa
8
Clemson
Auburn
Creighton
San Diego State
9
Arkansas
North Carolina
Arizona State
Maryland
10
Florida Atlantic*
Charleston*
Indiana
Wisconsin
11
Northwestern
Pittsburgh
Boise State*
Penn State/West Virginia
12
Ohio State/Kentucky
Kent State*
Oral Roberts*
VCU*
13
Liberty*
Marshall*
Cornell*
UC-Santa Barbara*
14
Youngstown State*
Southern Illinois*
Seattle*
Colgate*
15
SIUE*
Longwood*
UMass-Lowell*
Samford*
16
Eastern Washington*
Siena*
Southern*/Morgan State*
Fairleigh Dickinson*/Texas A&M-Corpus Christi

(Photo of San Diego State’s Darrion Trammell and New Mexico’s Morris Udeze: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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Brian Bennett

Brian Bennett is a senior editor for The Athletic covering National Basketball Association. He previously wrote about college sports for ESPN.com for nine years and The (Louisville) Courier-Journal for nine years prior to that. Follow Brian on Twitter @GBrianBennett