LAS VEGAS — Sometimes the deals that never get done are the most intriguing. As the Houston Astros enjoy their second World Series victory in the last six seasons, there’s an alternate reality that has Cubs free-agent catcher Willson Contreras in the middle of that celebration.
Over the weekend, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported that Houston had a deal for Contreras at the trade deadline that was overruled by ownership. A source confirmed that the Cubs and Astros had a deal that would have sent right-handed starter José Urquidy to Chicago straight up for Contreras.
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A day before the Aug. 2 deadline, the Cubs believed they were adding the 27-year-old starter, whom they projected as a backend pitcher on a winning rotation and is under team control through 2025. Adding to the rotation, but at the front and creating more depth, is one of many needs for a Cubs team that is looking to compete next summer. Adding Urquidy during the season would have given team president Jed Hoyer a head start on his lengthy offseason to-do list. To that point in the summer, the interest in Contreras had been tepid and the teams that had shown any interest in the catcher weren’t willing to up their offers when it became clear the Cubs had a deal in the works.
The deal was far enough along that Cubs ownership and some members of the coaching staff believed Urquidy was going to join their team. Urquidy isn’t a game-changing starter, but he has a career 3.74 ERA over 63 appearances (60 starts), has been better than league-average in that department in three of his four seasons, and boasts strong command though he lacks swing-and-miss stuff. However, as it all came apart and defensive-minded backstop Christian Vázquez headed to Houston from Boston, the Cubs officially lost the little leverage they had and it became clear Contreras would be staying in Chicago through the rest of the season.
Contreras not being moved was one of the bigger surprises of the deadline. The fact that he was an impending free agent and just a year earlier Hoyer had moved nearly every player on an expiring deal, including three core members of their 2016 World Series team — Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant and Javier Báez — made it feel like a deal was inevitable. But a market never fully materialized for Contreras, which now clouds how his free agency will play out.
The Cubs will give Contreras a qualifying offer by this Thursday’s deadline and Contreras will have until Nov. 15 to decide whether to accept it. The strong assumption both within the organization and around baseball is that Contreras will turn it down and head to free agency. The way Contreras was speaking after the season ended suggested as much as well.
“I’m in a spot that I dreamed to be in, this is a spot that I wanted to be (in) since I was a kid,” Contreras said. “I did everything I could to reach free agency. So it makes me proud. At the same time, it makes me a little nostalgic to leave my team. But everything happens for a reason.”
Willson Contreras receives a standing ovation at Wrigley. pic.twitter.com/ayF0xKW42f
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) October 2, 2022
If the unexpected happens and Contreras does accept the qualifying offer, his exact role with the Cubs would be something they’d have to continue to discuss. Perhaps Contreras would solely be used as a designated hitter and first baseman. Maybe there’s a scenario where he’s the personal catcher for one starter and two other catchers split the rest of the time. Or perhaps it’s this past season’s role, splitting time with Yan Gomes while using the DH to keep his legs fresh.
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But a return still would come as a surprise. The Cubs seem intent on going in a different direction with their catching, and adding another veteran, defensive-minded player to pair with Gomes in that spot seems likely. It’s not simply about defense and goes well beyond framing; catchers like Gomes get tremendously positive feedback for their work with pitchers in between games and their ability to prepare and game plan for the opponent, an aspect that appears to be highly coveted in today’s game.
In certain circumstances, there are restrictions for the draft-pick compensation based on how much a player with a qualifying offer signs for, but in this instance that isn’t a factor. No matter what type of deal Contreras signs, as long as he ends up with another team this winter, the Cubs will get a compensatory pick after Competitive Balance Round B. Complicating matters further, the signing team would lose at least one draft pick and potentially two, along with some money from its international bonus pool.
What Contreras can earn on the open market will be fascinating to see. Based on his trade market, there don’t seem to be suitors lined up to be aggressive. But of course, free agency works very differently than trade deadline deals. Teams that may have been uninterested just three months ago could suddenly feel motivated to be aggressive for a three-time All-Star catcher, feeling pressure to turn around a losing team or looking to inject life into their organization. Not every organization weighs catcher defense in the same manner, and a team that may have been hesitant to integrate Contreras midseason could view the situation differently with an offseason and full spring training to have him work with its pitching and coaching staff.
All the nitpicking of Contreras’ warts could ultimately be viewed as overthinking things. Contreras may not be a perfect catcher; he may not thrive at the soft factors of the game and be the perfect game-planner. But there are few catchers who can boast having caught a veteran-laden staff during a World Series run as a rookie. And even fewer who can provide the type of offense Contreras just did this past season when he delivered a 132 wRC+ and slugged over 20 home runs (22) for the fourth time in his career. Contreras works hard, has impressive energy and fans seem to gravitate toward him. All it takes is one team to decide he’s what they need to make all this hand-wringing moot.
If he does linger on the open market, the Cubs will monitor Contreras’ situation, stay in contact with his representation and see where his value lands. So a return can’t be ruled out. However, it seems highly unlikely. Like with Rizzo last winter, should Contreras not find the deal he’s seeking initially, it would be a surprise for him to come back to the Cubs and take a value deal rather than do the same with another organization.
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The Contreras-Cubs union isn’t officially over. There have been false starts to his goodbyes already, so making any grand proclamations to the end of an era may be foolish. But a return to the Cubs seems to be quite the longshot this winter. The Cubs have money to spend and numerous holes on a flawed roster. Contreras’ All-Star offensive production is just one more item on the list.
(Photo: Michael McLoone / USA Today)
