Is J.T. Miller a long-term fit with the Canucks? Analyzing trade rumours, his next contract and future cap questions

The Vancouver Canucks are at a crossroads, the future of the franchise uncertain in so many different ways.

Change is coming at some point but what that action looks like is still up in the air. It could be a coaching change, management reshuffling, a new president of hockey operations or even a trade to shake things up — there are tons of directions ownership could choose to go in.

This chaotic uncertainty naturally invites speculation. J.T. Miller, for a number of reasons, is one of the most prominent players caught up in speculation and trade chatter. It’s not hard to understand why — the 28-year-old is a fantastic player but he draws attention with his emotional, loud personality as well as his UFA status at the end of the 2022-23 season.

Miller’s long-term fit with the Canucks is a layered topic. The discussion of it ramped up with Ben Kuzma’s report that the Wild have called and expressed interest in Vancouver’s best left winger.

Let’s start by addressing the trade rumours. Is it possible that teams have been reaching out to the Canucks and asking about Miller? Sure, it’s common for clubs to start sniffing around when a rival organization is in distress.

That said, I think this is more noise than it is signal — at least for now.

I do not believe the Canucks are actively shopping Miller. The organization isn’t going to wave the white flag 20 games into the season, no matter how bleak it looks right now. Vancouver’s still focused on trying to find answers to salvage this season and it’s hard to see how a solution to that would involve the team trading its best point producer.

It doesn’t make sense to trade Miller if the Canucks are still in a win-now mode. He leads the team with 74 five-on-five points since arriving in Vancouver, which is 17 more than his next best teammate and ranks 20th best in the NHL. Miller’s versatile in that he can slide up and down the lineup, shift between wing and centre, win draws like an ace and play in all situations against the opposition’s best players. He’s physical and adds bite to a Canucks team that’s already a little light on those elements.

In the dressing room, Miller’s passion and manner of displaying emotion function as a double-edged sword. His energy is infectious and can be a rallying point when the team’s winning. When the team’s losing, he can be visibly miserable, which I’m sure only adds fuel to the fire of a crisis and can wear on teammates.

While some can perceive his character as a positive trait, others might perceive it negatively. Personally, I view it as a positive. Yes, the intense frustration won’t help a losing team when the season’s spiralling out of control but the passion shows that he genuinely cares. That matters because right now it looks like there are too many players on this team that are losing faith or who won’t dig in when adversity strikes.

Miller doesn’t just show up to collect his paycheque, he burns to win and doesn’t accept anything less. He’ll play any role, in any situation to help the team. He’ll play through bumps and bruises. Miller reminds me a little bit of Ryan Kesler; not with his playstyle but with respect to the competitiveness, the price that he’s willing to pay to win and the miserable outlook on losing.

Is Miller a perfect player? Of course not. He’s prone to bad giveaways and his two-way game hasn’t been nearly as complete as it was in his first Canucks season.

It’s important to step back and recognize the context, though.

With Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser struggling, Miller’s essentially forced into being the club’s offensive leader. That’s not a situation you want him in — to my eye, he starts forcing dangerous cross-ice passes or dangling through multiple defenders at the offensive blue line when he doesn’t have enough help around him. If the team’s offensive engine was running like it was in 2019-20, I have a feeling that Miller would be able to simplify his own game and cut down on the big puck management mistakes.

Workload is another important consideration: Miller averages the most minutes per game of any forward in the NHL not named Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. It’s suboptimal for him to consistently play more than 20 minutes per game (and Travis Green has acknowledged as much in the past) but the team doesn’t have a choice right now with its lack of penalty killing options and even strength offence.

If I’m assembling a winning team, I’d love to have Miller on it. There almost aren’t enough good things I can say about him and acquiring Miller is one of management’s few decisive trade wins. The trouble for the Canucks, however, is they have to consider a lot more than just his on-ice contributions. Vancouver’s decision makers have to ask themselves some very tough but honest questions:

1. Would Miller be willing to re-sign at the end of his current contract? Is that even the best course of action given his age, the team’s state and the top dollar he’d command?
2. What’s the best direction for the franchise’s next step? Is it possible to build a credible contender during the Miller and Bo Horvat window or is a retool the best step? And if a retool’s in the cards, does Miller fit into that?

With this blue line, the Canucks are too far away to credibly contend for a Stanley Cup next season, which is the final year of Miller’s contract. Perhaps they could make some tweaks and field a fringe playoff contender but that’s their ceiling; they don’t have the cap flexibility or trade assets to drastically improve the roster. Therefore, if the Canucks are unlikely to be able to take advantage of Miller’s current contract, they have to start thinking beyond that.

That’s where you have to wonder if the team is best off continuing to mortgage future flexibility and pieces just to try to make the playoffs or whether it’s best to retool so the Canucks can take a step back to eventually take two steps forward. And if a retool’s in the cards, it’s best to consider trading Miller to accumulate top assets before his contract expires.

Miller will be 30 and his stock is likely to be very high by the time he’s eligible to hit the open market. How much could he cost on his next contract? It’s very early to dive into that — there will be plenty of time to dissect deeper as we get closer — but we can look at a few recent comparables to gauge the market value for the tier of top wingers who aren’t quite superstars.

Recent UFA Year Contracts for Wingers

Player	Contract Signed	P/GP (3 YRS Prior to Deal)	Platform Year Production
J.T. Miller	N/A	0.96	N/A
Gabriel Landeskog	$7M x 8 yrs	0.94	54 GP, 20G-32A-52P
Taylor Hall	$6M x 4 yrs	0.81	53GP, 10G-23A-33P
Mats Zuccarello	$6M x 5 yrs	0.73	48GP, 12G-28A-40P
Jeff Skinner	$9M x 8 yrs	0.72	82 GP, 40G-23A-63P
Chris Kreider	$6.5M x 7 yrs	0.67	63GP, 24G-21A-45P
Anders Lee	$7M x 7 yrs	0.67	82GP, 28G-23A-51P
Brendan Gallagher	$6.5M x 6 yrs	0.65	59 GP, 22G-21A-43P

Gabriel Landeskog is the closest comparable to Miller based on production as the two have scored at a near-identical points-per-game rate over the last three seasons. Landeskog has the edge on Miller considering his captaincy with the Avalanche but his offensive numbers are also inflated since he spends so much time playing with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

Taylor Hall and Mats Zuccarello clock in next, each in the $6 million range but both cases differ from Miller’s. Hall’s had issues with injuries while Zuccarello, who averaged 60 points per 82 games in the three seasons leading up to his UFA status, just isn’t in the same tier as Miller, who’s produced at a 79-point pace with the Canucks.

Further down the list, we have the Jeff Skinner albatross. He sticks out with the massive $9 million cap hit after he found the perfect time to cash in on a 40-goal campaign.

After that, we have a solid pool of power forwards in Chris Kreider, Anders Lee and Brendan Gallagher who all signed long-term deals in the $6.5-7 million range after notching points at very similar rates as one another. Each one offers a ton of traits beyond just what they bring offensively so that’s an important consideration as well — these three players’ value exceeds their point totals.

If Miller can continue this kind of form into next season, I think he should feel comfortable about getting into the $7 million AAV range on a long-term deal. Landeskog’s contract is the most recent comparable and while he may be the more appealing all-around package, he also probably settled for a hometown discount relative to what he could have fetched on the open market. Miller’s market value should comfortably exceed Hall and Zuccarello’s while the Kreider, Lee and Gallagher contracts appear to reinforce the $6.5-7 million range as a base starting point.

That’d be quite the hefty ticket and long-term deals of this nature are historically proven to be an extremely risky proposition. Contenders should be the only ones making those types of short-term gain, potential long-term pain rolls of the dice. Even if the Canucks stick to their win-now mode, it’ll be interesting to see if they can make all the pieces fit up front without having to make a major move.

As it stands now, this is what the team’s outlook for the 2023-24 season might be if the Canucks re-sign Miller. I’ve included projected cap hits for a bunch of contracts that will require renewal so take this as a snapshot rather than a super-precise calculation of the Canucks’ exact cap situation.

In this scenario, the Canucks would have $69.28 million committed to just 14 skaters. They’d have $12.21 million to fund nine roster spots, while realistically needing two more top-four quality right-handed defenders, which won’t come cheap. Maybe the cap will have gone up a bit by then to provide a little bit more breathing room but it gets tight fast overall with Vancouver potentially having four forwards making $7 million or more in addition to mid-range deals for Nils Höglander (who will have his second contract by this time), Conor Garland and Tanner Pearson.

The logistics of fitting Miller’s next contract into the books isn’t going to be easy considering the Canucks will also owe likely raises to Horvat and Boeser. It’s hard to see a scenario where the club would have the resources to commit to all three of those forwards while simultaneously building a substantially improved back end.

Since Day 1, Miller’s been a tremendous fit with the Canucks. Vancouver isn’t in any hurry to move him, which makes sense — it has time to make a long-term decision. But the Canucks are heading toward an eventual dilemma considering the team’s uncertain direction and the significant cost and risk that will be associated with Miller’s next contract.

(Photo: Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)