There are three pretty safe choices for the Conn Smythe Trophy if the Lightning end up hoisting the Stanley Cup.
Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy are at the top of that list, with Brayden Point also likely to get some consideration.
Lightning coach Jon Cooper threw out another name on Tuesday: Ryan McDonagh.
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“He’s a masterful defender and hard to get around,” Cooper said. “He’s just one of those guys that if we can win this Stanley Cup, he’s not going to get the Conn Smythe voting that other people will, but he surely deserves it.”
While Victor Hedman is considered the best defenseman in the world — he was a Norris Trophy finalist for the fifth straight year — it is McDonagh, 32, who plays in the shutdown role for the Cup champs. Along with partner Erik Cernak, McDonagh routinely gets the toughest matchups, from the Panthers’ Aleksander Barkov to the Hurricanes’ Sebastian Aho, and a good chunk of the penalty-kill time. McDonagh has 37.9 offensive zone starts in the playoffs, with Hedman at 59.1 percent, for example. So it’s impressive that McDonagh’s plus-17 leads all Lightning players this postseason.
No player has been in more playoff games since 2010 than McDonagh (161), and he’s leaned on that experience. McDonagh has been at his best in the postseason. He’s made some world-class offensive plays, showing patience to set up Yanni Gourde’s short-handed goal in Game 7 against the Islanders and the no-look feed to Barclay Goodrow for the game-tying goal in Monday’s Game 4.
Ryan McDonagh with one hell of a defensive + offensive sequence pic.twitter.com/Q7pHzMlM2h
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) July 6, 2021
“I think he’s been their best defenseman,” one NHL scout said. “He looks so determined to win the Cup. He has taken his game up another notch or two and that is what you need in order to give yourself a chance to win the ultimate prize. Love his game … a true leader and winner.”
“He’s been awesome,” said another NHL scout. “He’s got smarts, he’s a shot blocker. Really focused.”
It’s hard to put in perspective what kind of difference-maker McDonagh has been for the Lightning blue line since he was acquired at the 2018 trade deadline. Having McDonagh in place in the shutdown pair allowed Hedman freedom and flexibility and it provided time for Mikhail Sergachev to develop into the two-way force he’s become today; during the regular season, McDonagh’s defensive point share of 3.4 (estimate number of points contributed based on their defense) was best on the team. The package for McDonagh (along with winger J.T. Miller) was hefty, including Vladislav Namestnikov, prospects Brett Howden and Libor Hajek and a first-round pick. But Cooper saw firsthand what McDonagh brought facing the former Rangers captain in the 2015 Eastern Conference finals, pointing out he was “playing on one leg.”
“I didn’t realize he’s as good as he is,” Cooper said.
Ryan McDonagh got a glimpse of being a pro from watching uncle Steve Walsh play in the NFL. He was the rare three sport athlete, staying home through HS. Our look on how St Paul + his family shaped #TBLightning defenseman https://t.co/opVb5wcVZl pic.twitter.com/raT6wamAw4
— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithTB) October 22, 2018
Rangers general manager Jeff Gorton didn’t want to trade McDonagh, either. That’s what he told agent Ben Hankinson as several teams made pitches for the shutdown defenseman, including the Capitals, Panthers and Lightning. The Rangers were going through a rebuild, but McDonagh was a heart-and-soul type of player, someone who wanted to see it through.
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“Gorton said all along, ‘I really don’t want to do this deal,’” Hankinson recalled. “‘I don’t want to trade him at all.’”
What people don’t see with McDonagh is his impact in the Lightning dressing room. He quickly became one of the go-to leaders on this veteran team and is one of their alternate captains. As Cooper once put it, “He brings such a calm to the game, to the room. It seems like everything is buzzing 100 miles per hour around him and Mac is as cool as a cucumber,” Cooper said. “Guys pull those vibes into themselves and that rubs off.”
It’s amazing to me when doing our Lightning projected protection lists for the July 21 expansion draft that fans are quick to suggest McDonagh should be left exposed so they could be rid of his $6.75 million cap hit through 2025-26. This playoff run should be another firm indication of why McDonagh is so important to this team. I’ve been steadfast in a prediction of Tampa Bay going with an eight-skater protection list, allowing them to keep their top four defensemen in McDonagh, Hedman, Sergachev and Cernak, along with forwards Kucherov, Point, Anthony Cirelli and Steven Stamkos. There could be several moves or trades before the draft, as the Lightning need to shed some salary because they’re already $5 million over the $81.5 million cap with just 19 players. They would hate to lose a forward like Killorn, Gourde or Ondrej Palat, but — to me — replacing a shutdown defenseman on the open market is more challenging. Sergachev is showing he’s ready for more, but having McDonagh and the top four defensemen protected gives them the best chance to win the Cup again.
If I were Seattle, and McDonagh was available, I’d pick him in a second and make him my first captain. He could very well be on the U.S. Olympic roster in February if NHLers are allowed to go. But if the Lightning do end up finishing a repeat Wednesday night, McDonagh will be a major reason why (Conn Smythe or not). As Scott Cullen points out, McDonagh has the worst Corsi and expected-goals percentage among Lightning defensemen but the best on-ice goal percentage (26 goals for, 12 goals against) of any Tampa Bay skater.
“He’s the guy that’s never going to be up for the Norris, but he can make a solid case and he could win it,” Cooper said. “And every year, he just does all those things that matter to win games. He’s a big, heavy, smart defenseman who is calm under pressure and it was evident in that goal we scored the other night. If there was every time you wanted to give a third assist, that was the guy that should have got it. But he’s just a calming presence back there and he’s always matched up against the other team’s top lines and he can play heavy, he can play quick and he is just been outstanding for us and you know since the day we acquired him.”
(Chart via Hockeystatcards.com)
‘A chance’ Killorn plays
Alex Killorn has missed the last three games after blocking a Jeff Petry shot in Game 1.
But it appears the veteran forward is close to returning. He was considered a game-time decision in Monday’s Game 4, even taking warmups. While Killorn didn’t play, Cooper said Tuesday there’s a “chance” Killorn returns for Game 5.
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“A lot of it will be up to Killer and how he feels,” Cooper said.
There’s no question the Lightning have missed Killorn, who plays in all situations, including on the penalty kill and power play, which went 0-for-5 in Monday’s loss.
The real question, however, is who would come out of the lineup if Killorn is back.
Rookie Ross Colton has been a staple in the lineup for months and has been filling in for Killorn on the second line in recent games. But Mathieu Joseph, who has seen his first action since the first round in recent games, has really fit in well on the fourth line with Tyler Johnson and Pat Maroon.
Joseph made an unreal play to set up Maroon’s game-tying goal in Monday’s third period, too.
Joseph to Maroon ties the game back up #GoBolts pic.twitter.com/vCs19H46Di
— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) July 6, 2021
Colton has five points (three goals) in 22 playoff games, with his last goal coming on June 8 against Carolina. He had a golden opportunity to score early in Monday’s game, but his shot sailed off the mark. Colton is a responsible player in his own end, and perhaps his experience with Johnson and Maroon could give him the edge. But Joseph has definitely made his mark.
One other Lightning lineup aspect to watch: defenseman David Savard didn’t play in the final eight minutes of regulation, nor did he see the ice in overtime. I asked Cooper on Tuesday if he was OK or if it was a flow of the game type deal, and he seemed to indicate Savard is fine. Savard played just over 11 minutes in Game 4.
Bounce-back factor
The Lightning are 14-0 after losses the last two postseasons, so their resilience shouldn’t be questioned.
And they’re leaning on that heading into Game 5, where they can clinch the Stanley Cup for the second straight year. Cooper saw signs of Tampa Bay players and staff quickly moving on by the time they were having their postgame meal Monday night in Montreal.
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Why are the Lightning so good after losses?
“It’s just continuing to have that competitive mindset,” McDonagh said. “You hate to lose sometimes more than you like to win. That’s probably the identity of this group. We’re all competitors. And it bleeds right down from our coaching staff. We have to go out and execute and put a lot of time and effort. We have to have that mindset from the start.”
It helps that Vasilevskiy has been tremendous after losses in these playoff runs, but it’s more about a collective group mindset, Cooper said.
“Where it comes from is a compilation of the players we’ve brought in, the core we kept, with some of the heartbreak we’ve had in the past,” Cooper said. “Couple that with winning a championship, all those little peaks and valleys. This is as great a character group that I’ve coached at any level. I’m not surprised what these guys have done.”
On Point
The Canadiens clearly emphasized being more physical with the Lightning in Game 4, specifically focusing on their top two offensive stars, Point and Kucherov.
Shea Weber was all over Point on several hits and Kucherov consistently took shots.
Shea Weber hits Brayden Point to stop him from creating a chance out of the penalty box.. pic.twitter.com/CIi5HW7yZF
— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) July 6, 2021
Canadiens coach Dominique Ducharme said it’s always been part of their game, it just looked like there was more of it Monday.
“We’ve talked about wearing teams down,” Canadiens veteran winger Corey Perry said. “It’s a long series, you’re playing every other night, and, you know, guys have been playing a lot of minutes, both sides of the rink. We’ve talked about it since day one, since we started that first game against Toronto. Every night, you have to continue to do the small little things. Keep putting the puck in deep. Banging the body. It takes a toll on guys and that’s just our mindset.
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It appears Kucherov has been playing hurt since the cross-check from Scott Mayfield in Game 6 against the Islanders. We don’t know if Point is dealing with an injury, but you have to imagine those two know they’ll be a target. Point and Kucherov are at their best when they’re engaged, and after being held off the scoresheet on Monday, I can see them stepping up in a Cup-clinching game.
Tampa mayor: Lesson learned
Tampa Mayor Jane Castor took the brunt of criticism for her viral comments about her wish for the Lightning to “take it a little bit easy” on the Canadiens in Monday’s Game 4 so they could win the Cup at home in Wednesday’s Game 5. She got her wish, with Tampa Bay losing 3-2 in overtime, but Castor tried to explain her joke in a news conference Tuesday.
(She also said Game 5 is still on, as of now, depending on the developments of tropical storm Elsa.)
Tampa mayor Jane Castor on her viral comments about #TBLightning winning at home. “Lesson learned: don’t try to be funny when you’re the mayor. .. I never wished the Lightning lost.” https://t.co/hk0pD18nq7
— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithTB) July 6, 2021
(Photo: David Kirouac / Icon Sportswire)
