The Vancouver Canucks will need to cut corners somewhere when they start making moves to upgrade their roster.
That’s the reality of an offseason in which the club’s financial flexibility will be severely limited once Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes put pen to paper on their second contracts.
Vancouver’s need for speed and scoring up front is well documented and could very well take precedence over upgrading other positions. By the time that’s done, the club may not have sufficient room to dramatically overhaul the blue line this offseason.
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This introduces a monumental challenge: the Canucks need to improve their back end but don’t have a whole lot of resources to do so. Realistically, this isn’t the offseason to make a splash for a player like Seth Jones or Dougie Hamilton, or even any of the other top-four defensemen who might be available a tier or two below those marquee names. A signature acquisition of that nature should be saved for the summer of 2022, when the club will have some money to play with.
For next season, a lot of the club’s blue-line hopes will hinge on internal improvement. Hughes is capable of a lot more after a sophomore campaign that exposed numerous defensive flaws. Nate Schmidt has the talent and track record to provide more value than he did in his inaugural season with the Canucks. Jack Rathbone is on the cusp of graduating from the prospect pipeline.
To support that internal upside, the Canucks need to seek inexpensive, undervalued contributors who can outperform their contracts. That’s what I’m here to try and identity in this piece. I’m not going to offer false hope by throwing out a bunch of sexy names that the Canucks don’t have the trade assets or cap resources to obtain. We’re going to be pragmatic and reasonable with our targets.
Before that, let’s map out the depth chart to see what holes there are.
Assessing what kind of defensemen the Canucks need
LD | RD |
|---|---|
Hughes | |
Schmidt | |
Rathbone | Myers |
Juolevi |
The two spots that need to be filled belonged to pending UFAs Alex Edler and Travis Hamonic. Retaining Edler on a team-friendly deal could be a sensible bet — colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model projects that he has one more year of low-end top-four ability in him — but even if he comes back, the club will need insulation and insurance around him. Edler’s injury-prone history and deteriorating skating ability, coupled with him being another year older, means that the team could use a fallback plan for the second pair if the 35-year-old Swede gets hurt or isn’t suited to play top-four minutes ability-wise.
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Rathbone is a high-end prospect but the team might not feel comfortable with the notion of him being the next man up on the left side if Edler falters. In that case, it may be sensible to find another bottom-pair defender in the $1-million AAV range who can both rotate between No. 6 and 7 duties (so that Rathbone can still get game action) and step up onto the second pair if something happens to Edler.
On the right side, Hamonic is a dependable blueliner who fits a crucial stylistic need for the Canucks with his in-zone defensive prowess and abrasive physical nature. The problem is that he played top-four minutes and will want to be compensated accordingly, but based on true ability level he’s much closer to being a bottom-pairing quality player. There’s a good chance he won’t provide full value on the next contract he signs unless it’s very team-friendly.
The question then becomes whether you can find a comparable right-side defenseman to Hamonic at a cheaper rate than the $2 million to $3 million per year he’d likely want. Any savings there would be extremely valuable because that extra cash could be reallocated to make upgrades elsewhere.
With all this in mind, we’re primarily going to be targeting cheap, undervalued bottom-pairing defenders who may have No.4/5 upside to play further up the lineup. If we identify a left-side defender, it’s probably to serve as insurance for Edler. If it’s a right-side defender, it’s probably to outright replace Hamonic at a more efficient rate.
In both cases, we’re prioritizing players with defensive intelligence given the Canucks’ own-zone struggles. We’ll also try to stick to pending free agents rather than options on the trade market because it’d be ideal for the Canucks to add this depth without sacrificing assets.
Let’s dive in.
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Jake McCabe, LD, Buffalo Sabres
Contract status: Pending UFA
Age: 27
2020-21 stats: 13GP, 1G-2A-3P
An injury-shortened season could provide a strong buy-low opportunity on Jake McCabe. McCabe lacks flash and comes with limited offensive abilities but he’s shown genuine top-four skill as a steady two-way contributor over his career.
He’s one of the few players on this list who could serve as a direct replacement for Edler, so long as the club is confident he can make a full recovery from the shoulder injury that ended his season.
A second-round draft pick in 2012, McCabe has been a stabilizing force, primarily next to Rasmus Ristolainen in the top four. He’s been one of the few bright spots in Buffalo and while his understated defensive game doesn’t catch the eye, the 27-year-old has had a profound impact on the team’s ability to control play at five-on-five.
McCabe has helped tilt the ice through his stellar defensive impact. He owns the best rates for shots, scoring chances and expected goals against at five-on-five among regular Sabres defensemen over the last two seasons, all of which has translated to him being the only blueliner with whom Buffalo has outshot and outchanced other teams.
Player | Shot Attempts (CF%) | Scoring Chances (SCF%) |
|---|---|---|
51.1% | 51.5% | |
48.6% | 47.5% | |
48.3% | 46.2% | |
48.2% | 49.3% | |
46.0% | 45.5% | |
44.2% | 45.0% |
McCabe’s influence on his most common partner, Ristolainen, at five-on-five also speaks volumes. Next to McCabe, Ristolainen has a 51.7 percent expected goal share over the last two seasons — the pair admirably controls play on an otherwise weak Sabres team. With any partner other than McCabe, Ristolainen’s expected goals percentage plummets to 40.6 percent — the latter gets hemmed in his own end and dominated without McCabe.
He’s also been a crucial penalty killer, leading the team’s defensemen in shorthanded minutes per game in addition to ranking fourth among Buffalo’s regular defenders in average five-on-five ice-time over the last two years, with plenty of experience in 2019-20 playing tough matchups.
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McCabe is coming off a two-year deal that paid $2.85 million annually and would be an attractive target to play on Vancouver’s second pair if he came at the right price.
Jon Merrill, LD/RD, Montreal Canadiens/Detroit Red Wings
Contract status: Pending UFA
Age: 29
2020-21 stats: 49GP, 0G-5A-5P
One trend that you’ll notice throughout this article is that we’re targeting blueliners who are above average in their own zone. Jon Merrill is another cost-effective player who fits that bill. The 29-year-old hasn’t had a good run with the Canadiens post-trade deadline, so recency bias may drive his market value lower, but he’s been a competent two-way player at previous stops in Detroit, Vegas and New Jersey over his career.
Merrill boasts a large 6-foot-3 frame that he uses to kill plays defensively. He’s an able secondary puck-mover and offers valuable versatility in being able to play both the left and right sides — he actually spent most of his time with the Red Wings this past season on the right side. In Detroit, Merrill averaged nearly 20 minutes a night and excelled as a big, rangy chance suppressor.
The 2010 second-round pick is a classic low-event player. His team isn’t going to generate much offence when he’s on the ice, which is evident in his lacklustre point totals, but the opposition is typically going to generate even less. Over the last three seasons, there are 186 defensemen who have skated at least 1,500 five-on-five minutes. Out of those 186, Merrill owns the ninth-best shots-against rate and the fourth-best expected-goals-against rate.
Rank | Player | 5v5 Expected Goals Against Per 60 |
|---|---|---|
1 | 1.82 | |
2 | 1.84 | |
3 | 1.86 | |
4 | 1.87 | |
5 | 1.87 | |
6 | 1.88 | |
7 | 1.89 | |
8 | 1.89 | |
9 | 1.91 | |
10 | 1.92 |
That ability to limit shots and chances against has translated to him allowing just 2.24 goals against for every 60 minutes he plays at five-on-five, which ranks 46th in the league during that span.
Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections peg Merrill at $1.128 million on a one-year deal. That seems very reasonable for a No.5 defenseman who can play both sides, adds size, kill penalties and can step up into the top four with sturdy defensive play if injuries strike or if your back end is shallow.
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Zach Whitecloud, RD, Vegas Golden Knights
Contract status: One year left at $725,000
Age: 24
2020-21 stats: 51GP, 2G-10A-12P
Zach Whitecloud is the only player on this list with a contract that runs through next season. The fact that Vancouver would need to give up an asset to acquire him isn’t ideal and could preclude him from being a realistic target but he’s the kind of young, steady, cost-controllable piece with untapped potential who could be worth paying for.
Whitecloud spent most of the 2019-20 season in the minors but emerged as a regular for Vegas during its 2020 playoff run and he hasn’t looked back since. The 24-year-old is a quality, no-frills player with a number of redeeming qualities. He uses his 6-2, 211-pound frame to play a hard-nosed style and excels as an in-zone defender who can lay the body, win battles along the boards and in front of the net and block shots.
He’s also strong at defending the rush, with zone-entry defense numbers showing that he closes gaps quickly and decisively to force a high number of dump-ins. That’d be a good fit for a Canucks team that gives up the defensive blue line far too easily.
Viz via CJ Turtoro, stats via Corey Sznajder
With the puck, he has minimal offensive value but owns decent zone-exit numbers as a secondary puck-mover.
Whitecloud ranked fifth among Golden Knights in averaging 17:49 per game last season, though it’s worth mentioning that he’s been sheltered in terms of matchups. He’s taken full advantage of this opportunity with strong underlying numbers, even after one accounts for the team strength of Vegas. Over the last two seasons, the Golden Knights have controlled 54.7 percent of five-on-five shot attempts, 56.6 percent of expected goals and 58.1 percent of actual goals with the young right-shot defender on the ice. He’s done a tremendous job of suppressing shots and chances, which has resulted in opponents scoring a measly 1.55 goals at five-on-five.
He looks like the kind of player who could pleasantly surprise in a bigger role. Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model currently rates him as a low-end top-four quality defensemen.
Vegas might not be interested in dealing Whitecloud given that he’s locked up for another year at a bargain $725,000 rate, but if the Canucks believe there’s untapped upside here, then he’s a player entering his prime worth kicking tires on before he really establishes himself.
Mark Pysyk, RD, Dallas Stars
Contract status: Pending UFA
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Age: 29
2020-21 stats: 36 GP, 3G-1A-4P
In terms of bargain options, Mark Pysyk should come as cheap as it gets. He signed for just $750,000 with Dallas last offseason and by averaging just 11:43 per game with the Stars, he did little to elevate his market value.
That’s good news for a prospective buyer like the Canucks, because there are signs Pysyk may be undervalued. The 29-year-old right-shot defender crushed his bottom-pairing assignment — Dallas outshot opponents by 60, controlled 61 percent of scoring chances and earned a 13-9 edge in actual goals when Pysyk took the ice at five-on-five. It’s not this success alone, however, that hints he’s capable of more. After all, there are plenty of defensemen who dominate in third-pair roles.
What makes Pysyk different is that he has three years of experience in Florida, where he played as a No.4/5 and averaged north of 18 minutes a night. In fact, he was regarded so highly that former GM Dale Tallon shipped out Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith to Vegas ahead of the expansion draft to ensure that Pysyk and Alex Petrovic could sail through the expansion process unselected.
Pysyk ultimately fell out of favour with the Panthers in 2019-20 and hasn’t earned a prominent opportunity since. At a minimum, he’s a Swiss Army knife-type depth player who also has the positional versatility to play right wing. At best, he could be a solid, right-shot No.4/5 defenseman at a dirt-cheap rate. GSVA believes he can add low-end top-four value.
Niklas Hjalmarsson, RD, Arizona Coyotes
Contract status: Pending UFA
Age: 34
2020-21 stats: 41GP, 0G-5A-5P
At the height of his career, Niklas Hjalmarsson was one of the best shutdown defensemen in the NHL. Fast forward to the present and it’s obvious he’s not the top player he once was now that he’s 34 years old. His puck-moving numbers have cratered and his minutes have been in a steady decline over the last couple of seasons, ranking fifth among Coyotes defensemen in averaging 17:21 last season. The year before that he appeared in just 27 games due to injury woes.
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While Hjalmarsson has slowed over the years and is best suited for a third-pair role at this stage in his career, he remains a defensive stalwart. With Hjalmarsson on the ice at five-on-five, Arizona surrendered an average of just 23.9 shots. The next best Coyotes defenseman, Alex Goligoski at 28.9, was on the ice for nearly five additional shots.
Hjalmarsson has almost zero value offensively and in transition but even in 2021, you’ll be hard-pressed to find many players who can lock things defensively as well as the veteran Swede. Arizona was 19 percent better than league average defensively with Hjalmarsson on the ice versus two percent worse than league average with him on the bench per HockeyViz’s model. All the blue in the middle of the slot in the visualization below illustrates how effectively he can suppress high-danger chances.
Hjalmarsson’s five-on-five play-driving remained intact last season, when he sported a 52.1 percent expected goal share. He accomplished this while continuing to play tougher than average matchups (59th percentile for quality of competition per TopDownHockey) with inferior teammates by his side (just 27th percentile for teammate quality per TopDownHockey).
In addition to his even-strength results, he also led the Coyotes in shorthanded minutes per game last year. That’s a pivotal area the Canucks will need help in if either Edler or Hamonic departs.
Hjalmarsson’s health concerns — he’s only suited up for a combined 68 games over the last two seasons — advanced age and declining usage should restrain his value on the open market.
Price is everything with Hjalmarsson. It has to be a cheap one-year contract for this to be sensible for the Canucks.
Heading into next season, he and Hamonic profile similarly as third-pairing-quality defensive specialists. Luszczyszyn’s GSVA model projects Hamonic at 0.2 wins above replacement while pegging Hjalmarsson at 0.1 wins after adjusting for anticipated age-related decline.
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In this case, if the Canucks hypothetically had the choice between signing Hjalmarsson to an inexpensive one-year deal (since he’s played bottom-pair minutes) versus signing Hamonic to a two-year deal in the $2.5 million to $3 million range annually, then Hjalmarsson would be worth considering over Hamonic.
Whether it’d be next to Hughes in a stay-at-home role or even next to Rathbone on a bottom pair, Hjalmarsson would bring top-notch defensive ability to a Canucks team that can’t keep the puck out of the back of its net. That is, of course, if he’s available at the right price.
Alex Goligoski, RD/LD, Arizona Coyotes
Contract status: Pending UFA
Age: 35
2020-21 stats: 56GP, 3G-19A-22P
The second veteran Coyotes defender on this list, Alex Goligoski would be a very different higher-risk, higher-reward bet compared to Hjalmarsson.
While Hjalmarsson is on the downward slope of his career approaching replacement level value, Goligoski is still going strong as a genuine top-four defenseman. Goligoski logged more than 22 and a half minutes per night last season, playing hard matchup minutes next to breakout star Jakob Chychrun. A left-shot who’s primarily played on the right side in recent memory, Goligoski is a smooth puck-mover with reliable two-way intelligence.
GSVA rates him as a top-four player for at least one more season and possibly another after that.
Goligoski’s a tad undersized at 5-11, 185 pounds, which does affect him in net-front battles. That could very well turn the Canucks off despite the fact that he’s smart in his own end and regularly kills penalties.
Regardless, the 35-year-old is an all-situations workhorse who can play both sides and could conceivably be an upgrade over Edler or Hamonic. It’s tough to say what he might command in free agency. Luszczyszyn’s model believes that a $3.45 million AAV would represent fair value if Goligoski hypothetically signed for two years.
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Jani Hakanpaa, RD, Carolina Hurricanes/Anaheim Ducks
Contract status: Pending UFA
Age: 29
2020-21 stats: 57 GP, 2G-2A-4P
Inexpensive with a burly 6-5 frame and strong defensive acumen, Jani Hakanpaa checks off many of the boxes the Canucks should be looking for. Hakanpaa spent most of his season with the Ducks and credibly held his own as a No.5 defenseman. The offence was completely non-existent but he was consistently near the top of the pack among Ducks blueliners by key defensive metrics like shots, chances and expected goals.
On the whole, the Finnish native found himself driving play to a near standstill against opponents. He possessed a 49.5 percent shot attempt differential, a 47.2 percent expected goals share and was outscored by just two goals at five-on-five. That’s a pretty solid underlying profile considering the overall quality of Anaheim’s team. At the deadline, he was dealt to the Hurricanes and continued his solid form in a third-pairing role.
Hakanpaa would be an intriguing bottom-pairing addition to play alongside Rathbone on a one-year deal if he can be had close to $1 million.
Patrik Nemeth, LD, Colorado Avalanche/Detroit Red Wings
Contract status: Pending UFA
Age: 29
2020-21 stats: 52 GP, 3G-7A-10P
Another unspectacular but effective shot suppressor, Patrik Nemeth is one more quality defense candidate to add to the list.
Similar to Merrill, Nemeth is another bottom-pairing-calibre defensemen who has experience playing up the lineup in the top four because of his time in Detroit. The 29-year-old Swede has optimal size at 6-3, 228 pounds, and offers the complete package defensively. He plays hard and physical, blocks shots, wins battles and disrupts plays in-zone while defending the cycle.
These skills allow him to protect the inside well. HockeyViz’s model shows that the Red Wings were 11 percent better than league average at suppressing chances with Nemeth on the ice.
There’s a lot to like about Nemeth as a steady No.5 defenseman who can step up the lineup in a pinch. And if he can be had on the right one-year deal, it’s an opportunity worth pondering.
(Photo of Jake McCabe: Drew Hallowell / Getty Images)
