On Thursday, I ranked the top rookie position players in the early going. Today it’s the pitchers’ turn. Here are my rankings of the top 12 rookie pitchers, with scouting grades and observations from the first month-plus of the season.
(Overall ranking among rookie pitchers appears in parentheses after the league ranking. Jim Bowden’s pitching grades are based on the 20-80 scouting scale, in which 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average and 70-80 is well above average. All stats are updated through Thursday’s games.)
National League
1 (1). Trevor Rogers, LHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 23
Height: 6-5 Weight: 217
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 50 Change-up: 65 Control: 60 Command: 55
A first-round pick in the 2017 MLB Draft, Trevor Rogers debuted last season and had mixed results in seven starts, finishing with a 6.11 ERA but 39 strikeouts in 28 innings of work. The left-hander competed for the fifth spot in the Marlins rotation in spring training, won the job, and so far has been Miami’s most dominating pitcher. Rogers was named the NL’s Rookie of the Month for April. He is 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 2.58 FIP in six starts while averaging 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings. Rogers has a mid-90s fastball, a deceptive change-up that opponents are hitting .129 against and a slider that needs work. But the combination of his four-seamer and that ridiculous change-up has quickly made Rogers one of the best lefty starters in the league — not just among rookies.
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2 (2). Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 23
Height: 6-3 Weight: 170
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 Change-up: 60 Curveball: 55 Control: 50 Command: 55
Ian Anderson made his mark last season in six regular-season starts with a 1.95 ERA, a 2.54 FIP and 11.4 strikeouts per nine. His postseason performance was even more remarkable, as Anderson went 2-0 with a 0.96 ERA in four starts (18 2/3 innings). That dominance has carried over to this season. Anderson has posted a 3.27 ERA and a 3.37 FIP in six starts. His fastball lives in the mid-90s, and he throws it 45 percent of the time. His change-up is his best secondary pitch; opponents are hitting just .163 against it, and he throws it a whopping 32 percent of the time. He also features a curveball that opponents are hitting just .208 against. Anderson has the tools, command, poise and moxie to be an elite starter.
3 (5). Ryan Weathers, LHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 21
Height: 6-1 Weight: 230
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 65 Slider: 60 Change-up: 50 Control: 60 Command: 55
A first-round pick in the 2018 draft (No. 7), Ryan Weathers is the youngest pitcher in the majors at 21, but you’d never know it from watching him on the mound. He has focus, poise and a high baseball IQ. (Weathers is the son of former major-league pitcher David Weathers, who pitched for the Reds when I was the team’s general manager.) Like Michael Kopech of the White Sox, Weathers has been used as both a starter and reliever early in the season (three starts, four relief appearances). Weathers is 1-1 with a 0.93 ERA and one save, having allowed just eight hits in 19 1/3 innings. His fastball and slider are both wipeout pitches, and his change-up, when it’s working, is a solid, major-league average pitch. Weathers has a high upside, but even now, the young lefty is one of the most important pieces on the Padres staff because of his versatility.
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4 (9). Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Chicago Cubs
Age: 26
Height: 6-1 Weight: 208
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 Curveball: 60 Change-up: 50 Control: 50 Command: 45
Of the Cubs’ starting pitchers, Adbert Alzolay has the best raw stuff. His fastball sits 93 to 95 mph. He has a hard slider that comes in at 86 mph and, interestingly, he’s thrown it about as much as his fastball (four-seamer and sinker) this season — 46-48 percent of the time. Alzolay’s other pitches, which he obviously doesn’t have a lot of confidence in, are a curveball and change-up. I haven’t seen the Cubs’ analytics to know why they’re sequencing him this way, but if Alzolay going to fulfill his potential, his pitch usage will have to become more varied as the season goes on.
5 (11). J.P. Feyereisen, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 28
Height: 6-2 Weight: 215
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 Slider: 55 Change-up: 50 Control: 40 Command: 50
Over the past several years, no team has done a better job of finding under-the-radar relievers than the Brewers, and J.P. Feyereisen is just another example. Feyereisen has made 16 appearances this season without giving up an earned run, allowing four hits in 15 innings with 16 strikeouts. The righty’s control has been a concern, though, as he’s issued seven walks. Milwaukee acquired Feyereisen from the Yankees in a September 2019 trade for Brenny Escanio and international bonus slot money, a real steal for the Brewers. Feyereisen features a three-pitch mix that includes a 94 mph average fastball, a hard slider that comes in at 86 mph and an even harder change-up (88 mph).
American League
1 (3). Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 25
Height: 6-3 Weight: 210
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 75 Slider: 65 Curveball: 50 Change-up: 50 Control: 45 Command: 45
Michael Kopech has started and pitched in relief in the early going, and that’s the tentative plan for the rest of the season. He has made two starts and six appearances out of the bullpen, excelling in both roles. Kopech has posted a 1.33 ERA, a 1.57 FIP, 15.0 strikeouts per nine and a walk rate of 3.5 — enough said. His fastball has averaged 96 mph and opponents are hitting only .048 against it. His slider has been just as nasty, as he’s tallied 12 strikeouts with the pitch in 19 at-bats. Kopech missed the entire 2019 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, then opted out of the 2020 season, so no one knew if he would still look like one of the game’s best pitching prospects in his return. He’s answered any questions with his strong start to the season.
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2 (4). Emmanuel Clase, Closer, Cleveland Indians
Age: 23
Height: 6-2 Weight: 206
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 70 Slider: 55 Control: 55 Command: 55
Emmanuel Clase quickly claimed the Indians’ closer role this season, thanks to his triple-digit fastball/cutter that explodes in the strike zone with late break and life, giving hitters little chance of making hard contact. He also has a nasty slider, and opponents are just 2-for-11 against it. Clase, whom the Indians acquired from the Rangers in the Corey Kluber trade in 2019, leads the league with 13 games finished and hasn’t allowed an earned run in 15 relief appearances. His chase rate, xwOBA and xERA rank in the 96th percentile of major-league pitchers, according to Baseball Savant. He’s special.
3 (6). Shane McClanahan, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 24
Height: 6-1 Weight: 200
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 75 Slider: 60 Change-up: 50 Control: 50 Command: 50
I can already predict the comments section — some readers are going to ask how Shane McClanahan can rank sixth overall on this list after pitching only eight innings and two starts. Well, I really wanted to put him at the top of the list, but had to fight the urge. McClanahan has the best stuff of any rookie pitcher, period. I gave his fastball a 75 grade (well above average), and his slider is another above-average wipeout pitch. His stuff is as dominant as Tyler Glasnow’s, and from the left side. The only question is how many innings the Rays will let McClanahan pitch this season (and how many pitches per start). Regardless, he’s another special young arm, and he has as much upside as any rookie pitcher in baseball.
4 (7). Chris Rodriguez, RHP, Los Angeles Angels
Age: 22
Height: 6-2 Weight: 185
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 55 Curveball: 50 Change-up: 55 Control: 55 Command: 55
Angels GM Perry Minasian told me near the end of spring training that Chris Rodriguez was going to make the team and had the best arm of any of their pitching prospects. A fourth-round pick in the 2016 draft, Rodriguez has lived up to Minasian’s scouting report this season with a 2.45 ERA and 17 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings over seven relief appearances. He’s become an important set-up man for manager Joe Maddon. The Angels placed him on the 10-day IL on Thursday because of right shoulder inflammation, but Maddon said the team’s medical staff doesn’t think the injury is severe.
5 (8). Josh Fleming, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 24
Height: 6-2 Weight: 220
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 Slider: 50 Curveball: 50 Change-up: 55 Control: 60 Command: 55
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Josh Fleming doesn’t have the overpowering repertoire, but he does have the ability to pitch; to add and subtract on his pitches; to expand, then shrink the strike zone; to change eye levels and keep hitters off balance. It’s a terrific combination, especially because Fleming is surrounded by so many power arms on the Rays. Fleming has made three starts and two relief appearances this season, pitching to a 2.81 ERA while allowing 19 hits in 25 2/3 innings. That versatility makes Fleming a valuable member of the Tampa Bay staff.
6 (10). Garrett Whitlock, RHP, Boston Red Sox
Age: 24
Height: 6-5 Weight: 190
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 60 Slider: 55 Change-up: 50 Control: 50 Command: 50
Garrett Whitlock is an interesting story; the Red Sox acquired him as a Rule 5 draft pick from the rival Yankees, and early on, it looks like a savvy move. Whitlock has made eight relief appearances, posting a 1.76 ERA with 19 strikeouts in 15 1/3 innings while allowing 11 hits and two walks. (He has given up runs in his last two appearances after starting the season with 13 1/3 scoreless innings.) The righty was mainly a starter in the Yankees organization, compiling a strong minor-league resume that included a 1.86 ERA in 120 2/3 combined innings at Single A and Double A in 2018, then a 3.07 ERA in 14 starts at Double A in 2019. His fastball sits in the mid-90s, and his changeup is his best secondary pitch by far. His slider is a work in progress, and it’s the pitch that will determine whether Whitlock eventually returns to a starting role.
7 (12). Luis Garcia, RHP, Houston Astros
Age: 24
Height: 6-1 Weight: 244
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 55 Change-up: 60 Slider: 55 Curveball: 45 Control: 50 Command: 45
Luis Garcia made his major-league debut last year, posting a respectable 2.92 ERA in 12 1/3 innings in the regular season, then pitching two scoreless innings in the ALCS against the Rays. In four starts and two relief appearances this season, Garcia has a 3.28 ERA with 28 strikeouts and nine walks in 24 2/3 innings. He is a serviceable back-of-the-rotation starter or swing reliever who provides important depth for the Astros staff.
Rookies who could make a run for next month’s list
Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers
Luis Patiño, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City Royals
Rookies who could be promoted and become a factor
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Sixto Sánchez, RHP, Miami Marlins
Also see: Ranking the must-watch pitching prospects for the minor-league season
(Top photo of Trevor Rogers: Dale Zanine / USA Today)
