Transitioning from a 60-game sprint to the pending 162-game marathon could prove daunting for major league teams and fantasy players alike. Six-man rotations, innings caps and trying to fill innings with players who can move from the majors to the minors without penalty affects the ever-evolving relief pitcher landscape.
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Putting aside the usual rhetoric centered on whether or not to pay for saves in drafts or auctions, it’s context dependent. No league plays the same. In draft and hold formats, closers get pushed up in drafts due to the scarcity component — not just the statistic itself, but players with a clear path to record them.
Digesting all these moving pieces makes preparing for saves in 2021 a daunting task. Being comfortable with uncertainty seems applicable unless one targets two top closers on the wheel with a “double-tap” maneuver. This should prevent needing to surf the waiver wire for the closer du jour in a vicious cycle if multiple teams choose a similar path.
For the purposes of this column, I’ll offer a couple of zigs when the market zags plus some intriguing pitchers in positive environments to move up the high-leverage ladder for precious save chances. However, some tidbits of information regarding how a couple of pitchers may be deployed this season may make them very beneficial for fantasy in 2021.
SPARP (Starting Pitchers as Relief Pitchers)
Starting pitchers as relief pitchers can tilt the scales in head-to-head formats or leagues which play with pitcher designations. St. Louis announced Alex Reyes projects exclusively as a reliever this season with a 100-inning cap. Cincinnati presently intends to use Tejay Antone as a multi-inning reliever as well. Seth Lugo provided a template of this type of usage in 2018, although he made five starts among his 53 appearances spanning 101 innings with 103 strikeouts against 28 walks and a 2.66 ERA.
Reyes needs to take a major step forward in his command to come close to 2018 Lugo. However, with a higher strikeout rate during his 72.2 career innings in the majors, Reyes owns a 6-3 record with two saves over 32 outings and seven starts. A best case scenario for Reyes may be a season akin to Scot Shields from 2004 with the Angels:
- Shields — 60 games, 8-2, 4 Saves, 105.1 IP, 109:40 K:BB, 3.33 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 24 K%, 8.8 BB%
With some adjustments, Reyes could finish with a lower WHIP than Shields. Predicting wins remains a mystery, so focus on how Reyes could accomplish this feat. It starts with health. He’s yet to eclipse 100 innings since 2016. His arsenal provides strikeout appeal, illustrated by his 14.2 swinging strike percentage in 2020. According to Brooks Baseball, each of his offerings recorded a double-digit swinging strike rate:
- 4-Seam Fastball — 12.4 SwStr%
- Sinker — 14.3 SwStr%
- Change-up — 14.3 SwStr%
- Slider — 18.7 SwStr%
- Curve — 15.7 SwStr%
Owning a slider which sits at 87 MPH with this movement tantalizes Reyes truthers:
Using Shields’ season above as a barometer and Lugo’s as the most recent facsimile, here’s some other bulk relievers who may help with strikeouts while protecting ratios.
Freddy Peralta, Milwaukee
Covered in detail in a previous post, Peralta provides a terrific pivot to accrue innings with strikeout upside. He’s racked up 86 strikeouts his past 50 innings as a reliever and if his new grip with the slider maintains the 21.1 swinging strike rate, he could improve in 2021. A scary thought for his opponents.
Tejay Antone, Cincinnati
Working as a reliever in 2020, Antone recorded 19 innings with a 1.89 ERA, 27:6 K:BB, 0.63 WHIP and an eye popping 38 percent strikeout rate. Our own C. Trent Rosencrans suggested Antone may morph into the Reds version of Josh Hader circa 2018. This would translate into multi-inning outings with volume strikeouts, occasional wins and saves along with ratio protection.
Antone features a sinker with a devastating slider and curve combination in his arsenal. He sets hitters up with the slider (20.7 SwStr%)
And finishes them with the curve (14.9 SwStr%):
Keeping Antone as a reliever may not be the only path to fantasy production but his ADP climbs with each strong outing, building on the hype train that already left the station.
Jakob Junis, Kansas City
Trying to make the most of his repertoire led to struggles as a starting pitcher. But, Junis added a cutter to his pitch mix this offseason, as reported by Alec Lewis. This tweak has fueled his strong start to spring with seven strikeouts against zero walks over five innings of work. He’s notched a 0.40 WHIP with a 2.00 ground outs to air outs ratio. Can Junis carry this over into the regular season? If so, he’s a worthy deep league, or only-league, target working as either a piggy back starter or multiple inning reliever for the Royals.
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Michael Kopech, Chicago White Sox
After opting out in 2020, Kopech made his spring debut firing six pitches at or higher than 97 MPH en route to a clean outing, striking out one in the process. In the multi-inning role for the White Sox last year, Matt Foster notched six wins. Kopech brings a higher ceiling in terms of strikeouts and, if healthy, could be a very sneaky play on a contender as a ratio eraser.
Absolute fire. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/bBg7GEjjJq
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) March 9, 2021
A.J. Puk, Oakland
It remains to be seen if Puk enters 2021 as a starting pitcher or a reliever. Injuries continue to hamper his production so perhaps letting him cut his teeth in the majors this year out of the bullpen makes sense. Puk logged 11.1 innings in 2019 in 10 games with a 13:5 K:BB, 3.18 ERA and 13.9 swinging strike percentage. When delving deeper into his data on Brooks Baseball, Puk registered a 26.3 swinging strike percentage with his change-up and a 20% swinging strike rate on his slider.
David Price, Los Angeles Dodgers
Perhaps it’s just noise from Dodgers camp, but Price remains open to any role in order to benefit the team. He’s willing to work as a reliever or a starting pitcher. Price debuted with the Rays as a reliever in 2008 and also logged relief appearances with Boston in 2017. In these outings as a relief pitcher, Price boasts a 0.98 ERA with a 0.60 WHIP and robust 23:3 K:BB in 18.1 innings.
Since he missed last year, it’s easy to forget Price’s first 17 starts in 2019 featured a 3.16 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 28% strikeout rate and 12% swinging strike rate. Could he vulture wins as a piggy-back starter or multi-inning reliever? His role should crystallize in the next two weeks.
Shane McClanahan, Tampa Bay
No team remains more proactive than reactive than the Rays. There’s a chance McClanahan gets a chance this season as a bulk reliever reprising a role which launched the career of Ryan Yarbrough. McClanahan made an impressive debut this spring:
Shane McClanahan strikes out the side.
The 23-year-old lefty is one of the #Rays’ MLB-best 8⃣ Top 100 prospects: https://t.co/QkkfyCqCyv pic.twitter.com/r2wHNacyXt
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 9, 2021
He also hit 101 MPH on the radar gun in this outing. If he gets a chance to pitch in any role this year for Tampa Bay, be ready to pounce.
What If? (Long shots with a chance to close)
There’s a worst-case scenario in any bullpen, or even a chance a pitcher well below the radar could win a closer role out of nowhere. Here’s three longshots with intriguing upside for 2021:
José Alvarado, Philadelphia
So far this spring, Alvarado’s hitting 99.7 MPH with his sinker. Archie Bradley’s maxing out at 92.5 MPH while Hector Neris continues allowing too much traffic on the bases. Alvarado notched a 2.38 ERA in 2018 with 80 strikeouts against 29 walks and a 1.11 WHIP. With Tony Watson improving in camp and if the right-handed pitchers above cannot distance themselves as the closer, there’s a chance Alvarado pilfers the role from them:
Aaron Sanchez, San Francisco
Before going off the rails here, Jake McGee continues to be overlooked in drafts and even if he shares saves, he represents a bargain for ratio help with a chance to record 10-to-15 saves this season. Now, for Sanchez. He started out as a reliever, closing out three games his rookie season. Injuries and ineffectiveness have plagued him, but there’s a chance he does not start for the Giants all season and transitions to the bullpen.
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Despite his struggles in 2019, Sanchez still registered a 15.3% swinging strike rate with his curve and an 11.1% swinging strike rate with his change-up. Elevating his fastball then changing eye levels would unlock his potential in high leverage.
Cesar Valdez, Baltimore
There’s nothing alluring about a reliever throwing a change-up over 80 percent of the time. But, Valdez secured three saves for the Orioles last year, just three more than fantasy consensus closer Hunter Harvey.
As for Valdez, he finished with a 1.26 ERA over 14.1 innings with a 12:3 K:BB and 0.70 WHIP. If Harvey cannot work on consecutive days at the onset of the season, there’s a chance Valdez forms a strong late-inning tandem with Tanner Scott.
For the visual crowd, here’s Valdez’s change, which produced a 14.2% swinging strike rate:
Victor González, Los Angeles Dodgers
Most plan on Brusdar Graterol being the “closer” of the future for the Dodgers but, when putting his numbers against González, it may be the wrong assumption:
- Graterol 2020 — 23 games, 23.1 IP, 13:3 K:BB, 3.09 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 14.8 K%, 3.4 BB%, 87.6 Contact%, 91.4 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percentage, 6.2 SwStr%
- González 2020 — 15 games, 20.1 IP, 23:2 K:BB, 1.33 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 28.7 K%, 2.5 BB%, 68.5 Contact %, 86.5 Z-Contact percentage, 15.5 SwStr%
Noting Los Angeles turned to Julio Urías in Game 6 of the World Series, the franchise may not mind pivoting to González in the ninth inning if Kenley Jansen falters. Plus, González features a nasty slider which generated a 27.2% swinging strike rate last season:
Late Round Fliers (Stashes for Saves)
Suggesting José LeClerc’s hold on the closer role remains tenuous would be an understatement. He could be a post-hype rebound candidate but needs his command to improve in order to stay atop the bullpen hierarchy. Jonathan Hernández will miss at least a month with a UCL sprain in his elbow, opening the door for Demarcus Evans and Joely Rodriguez.
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Evans struck out 100 over two levels of the minors (High-A and Double-A) in 2019 with 12 saves, finishing 30 of the 47 games he appeared in. He looks like a closer, and if his velocity ticks up and the strikeout to walk rate remains, Evans may get save chances as early as this season.
Representing the southpaw upside play, Rodriguez battled through injuries with a 17:5 K:BB in 12.2 innings in 2020. He only issued one walk his last five contests and his 2.13 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP hints at some upside in the year ahead.
Boston Red Sox
Most focus on the camp battle for closer between Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino. In deep formats or keeper leagues, take the long view, attempting to stay two streets ahead. Darwinson Hernández could blossom this season as a high leverage impact arm. Like other young relievers, his control needs to take a step forward, so monitor his spring strikeout to walk rates closely.
But, if his fastball velocity ticks up and his curve remains filthy, look out. Here’s a two pitch sequence to Luke Voit. First, a swinging strike on a curve:
Then strike three on an elevated fastball:
A scout once referenced his cutter as a bowling ball coming into the strike zone. Clase missed last year due to suspension but could be a key cog in high leverage for Cleveland. Mariano Rivera made a career out of throwing his cutter and Clase’s can touch 99-to-100 MPH with movement:
Rounding into form at spring training, there’s a chance James Karinchak opens the season as the “stopper” with either Clase or Nick Wittgren getting save chances as well. If this happens, Clase could be a sneaky play for double digit saves.
Now for some rapid fire names to tuck away:
- J.B. Bukauskas, Arizona — Reportedly moving into the bullpen and even if he does not break camp with the team, profiles as a potential closer of the future. Through his first three spring appearances, all clean, Bukauskas has recorded six strikeouts. He features a mid-90’s fastball with a plus slider.
- Blake Cederlind, Pittsburgh — While his team sorts out the battle between Kyle Crick or Richard Rodriguez for the closer role, Cederlind, armed with a 98 MPH sinker and 90 MPH cutter, keeps his eyes on the second half for saves.
- Austin Adams, San Diego — Each of the right-handed relievers ahead of him comes with a wart. A strong start combined with any stumbles by his competition may lead to high leverage events for Adams with the Padres. In 2019, Adams racked up 53 strikeouts against 16 walks over 32 innings with a 23.2 SwStr% with his slider.
Planting my flag
Jordan Hicks, St. Louis
Although his team may ease him back into the closer role, Jordan Hicks appears healthy and fluid throwing on the back fields. According to reports, Hicks only needed 11 pitches for a clean inning, hitting 100 MPH with his fastball and featuring his slider. For a reminder:
Healthy from his surgery after opting out last year, Hicks should be primed to return to his role as closer. There’s a chance he notches 20 or more saves featuring a high octane sinker which averaged over 100 MPH in 2019 before his Tommy John surgery. At a depressed price point due to a lack of clarity regarding his role, it’s time to roster Hicks due to his teeming upside and ability to generate easy velocity, which should lead to more swings and misses. If he harnesses the change-up, giddy up.
Our closer charts and rankings will update on Monday, March 15th, so be on the lookout. Until then, stay safe and be well.
Statistical Credits: Fangraphs.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net; Baseball-Reference.com; MiLB.com
(Top photo: Justin Berl/Getty Images)
