The first trade of the Dave Dombrowski era resembled something familiar to the Phillies. In José Alvarado, they acquired a lefty reliever with promise but one whose value was at its lowest. He’s the sort of pitcher they have frequently failed to develop, but he’s the type of buy-low addition that will guide how the Phillies rebuild their bullpen this winter.
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Or, look at it this way: The Phillies took a dead 40-man roster spot and turned it into someone who has a chance to contribute in 2021. The team needs so much more, but the previous regime failed in this exact spot — the fringe additions. Maybe the Alvarado deal will be known as the first that changed the organization’s reputation.
It is, at least, something more than a waiver claim or Rule 5 pick.
Alvarado is a year younger than Garrett Cleavinger, the lefty the Phillies flipped to the Dodgers in a three-team, four-player trade, but he has appeared in 148 more big-league games. Cleavinger, at best, projected as an up-and-down arm next season who could maybe help in the middle innings if he threw more strikes.
Alvarado’s ceiling is higher because his stuff is better, or at least was better. The 25-year-old Venezuelan did not pitch much in 2020 because of a nagging shoulder issue. The Rays were often frustrated by his conditioning and, in 2019, he left the team for more than a month to tend to personal issues. He has never boasted pristine command of his pitches, but they can generate some ugly swings.
Tampa Bay might have designated Alvarado for assignment had it not found a trade match for him Tuesday. The Rays need roster spots, Alvarado will make about $1 million in 2021 and his time with Tampa Bay had reached a logical conclusion. The Rays did not include him on their World Series roster.
If the Phillies have concerns about Alvarado’s health or conditioning, they are somewhat protected. His salary will be determined through the arbitration process, and should the two sides reach an agreement before a hearing, it’ll likely be for a non-guaranteed deal. That means, if things do not go well in spring training, the Phillies would be responsible for about one-sixth of Alvarado’s 2021 salary.
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The bullpen is a priority as the Phillies look to plug holes across the roster, but most of the additions will be like Alvarado. Relievers are the most fickle commodity — the Phillies know this too well after their trade-deadline adventures in the summer — and when a club is shopping in the second or third tier, those pitchers come with blemishes.
Dombrowski is as seasoned an executive as there is, but any deal with the Rays comes with a certain discomfort. Tampa Bay is regarded as one of the best organizations at evaluating fringe players such as Alvarado and there is a reason they were willing to move him. If it was that he’d make too much money for them in 2021, then there are fewer potential concerns about this trade. But if the reason was an underlying issue — in mechanics or health — then the Phillies would be betting on their process solving something with Alvarado that the Rays couldn’t or didn’t want to explore. Those bets, in the past, have failed more often than not.
It is a good immediate test for the front office’s new evaluation methods and for new pitching coach Caleb Cotham’s techniques.
The Phillies can point to Cleavinger as a success, to a certain degree. They acquired him in a trade that will forever be confusing — when a fourth-place Baltimore team sprang for a deadline deal in 2017 to add Jeremy Hellickson. Cleavinger started to throw harder with the Phillies organization. He did enough to convince them to add him to the 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. He made it to the majors last season.
But it’ll be fascinating to see if the Dodgers can apply the kind of finishing touches that escaped the Phillies’ development staff. Maybe Cleavinger won’t ever find the strike zone consistently enough to be a credible big-league reliever. Or, maybe the Phillies missed something. The 26-year-old throws hard and has the fastball ride that the Dodgers crave from their relievers.
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He’s depth for the Dodgers, who have the luxury of prioritizing depth right now. The Phillies do not. They need someone — multiple someones — to pitch in the later innings next season. Alvarado has done it before, albeit two years ago. That makes him very qualified in this barren Phillies bullpen.
(Top photo: David John Griffin / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
