What Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson and Linus Ullmark could get in arbitration

They’ve put in the work. They’ve enjoyed NHL success. Their lives are about to change.

The question is by how much.

As the arbitration dates approach for Sam Reinhart, Victor Olofsson and Linus Ullmark, the players are getting ready for career-altering contracts. Olofsson could see his pay rise by 350 percent. Ullmark might double his salary. Reinhart, who’s earned $10 million in five years, could match that in the next season and a half.

There’s not much the Sabres can do about it.

“When you get to a certain point in your career, you’ve earned certain rights,” general manager Kevyn Adams said. “Ultimately, it’s about getting to the result that both sides feel comfortable with, and sometimes arbitration has the ability to help that along.”

The restricted free agents have their dates with an arbitrator. Ullmark is scheduled to lead off Oct. 26. Reinhart is set for the next day. Olofsson will close the run Nov. 4.

The sides can negotiate until the hearings begin. If they don’t agree to new contracts, they’ll head to a virtual proceeding and live with the arbitrator’s ruling.

Before we get into what the players might get, let’s look at how NHL arbitration works. It’s a formal affair in which briefs are limited to 42 pages (exclusive of indices, glossaries, tables of contents and exhibits) and must be filed in 12-point Times New Roman font, double-spaced with one-inch margins.

Each side proposes a contract amount and comparable players. The party against whom arbitration was filed, which is the Sabres in all three cases, chooses whether the award will be for a one- or two-year contract.

The players, represented by the NHL Players Association unless they choose their agent, will have 90 minutes to present their case. That time can be split between direct evidence and rebuttal in any manner they choose. The Sabres and the NHL also have 90 minutes to show their case. Witnesses can be called.

The sides can present the following statistical evidence:

• The player’s overall performance, including official NHL statistics for offense and defense.
• The number of games played by the player, plus his injuries or illnesses.
• The length of service in the league and with the club.
• The overall contribution of the player to the competitive success or failure of his club in the preceding season.
• Any special qualities of leadership or public appeal.
• The overall performance of any players who are alleged to be comparable.

The following categories are inadmissible and can’t be considered by the arbitrator:

• Any contracts that began when the player was not a Group 2 restricted free agent. So Olofsson’s entry-level deal is exempt, but the expired contracts for Reinhart and Ullmark can be presented.
• Any contracts signed by unrestricted free agents, meaning Ullmark can’t use teammate Carter Hutton and his lesser stats as a comparable.
• The contract of anyone who is not being offered as a comparable player.
• The players’ qualifying offers, which were $3.75 million for Reinhart, $1.325 for Ullmark and $735,000 for Olofsson. The sides start from scratch.
• Any prior offers or history of negotiations between the player and club.
• Columns or game reports written by the media.
• Any reference to walkaway rights. The collective bargaining agreement allows teams to decline any one-year award over a defined threshold (set at $4,538,958 this season). A club’s decision to walk away makes the player a UFA. If a player is awarded a two-year deal, teams can walk away from the second season but must accept the first year.
• The financial condition of the club or league, which is a huge clause in a COVID-19 world.
• References to a club’s upper or lower limit. For instance, the Sabres can’t say, “We’re just $X million under the cap, so please don’t award $X million plus 1.”

Excluding the qualifying offers for Reinhart, Ullmark and Olofsson, the Sabres’ cap hit stands at $68.7 million, about $12.8 million under the limit of $81.5 million.

The arbitration hearings could deplete almost of all of that.

Sam Reinhart comparables

Player	Cap hit	% cap	2020-21
Martin Erat	$4.5 million	8.95	$7.29 million
Daniel Sedin	$3.575 million	8.13	$6.63 million
Justin Williams	$3.5 million	7.95	$6.48 million
Dylan Larkin	$6.1 million	7.67	$6.25 million
Joffrey Lupul	$4.25 million	7.48	$6.10 million
Bo Horvat	$5.5 million	7.33	$5.97 million
Derick Brassard	$5 million	7.25	$5.91 million
Pierre-Marc Bouchard	$4.08 million	7.2	$5.87 million
Andrew Ladd	$4.4 million	6.84	$5.58 million
Travis Konecny	$5.5 million	6.75	$5.5 million
Viktor Arvidsson	$4.25 million	5.67	$4.62 million

With the most experience, Reinhart has the most evidence to present. The winger has played five full seasons, including four with at least 22 goals. While the Sabres haven’t had any team success, Reinhart’s 14 game-winning goals are second only to Jack Eichel (24). He trails just his linemate in goals and points, too.

But Eichel and his $10 million salary are not Reinhart’s comparables. It’s the players in these charts, who show the Sabres right winger could be in line for a judgment of $6 million or more (based on contract numbers from CapFriendly). The difference in dollars above is the contract and its percentage of the cap hit when it was signed compared to the same percentage of the cap in 2020-21.

Here are the stats for Reinhart, who turns 25 next month, plus the numbers for players who signed at a similar stage of their careers.

Boasting superior numbers to Sedin is impressive evidence. The Vancouver forward’s stats climbed significantly after he signed the above contract in 2006. The Sabres could counter with the lower-priced deal for Ladd, who has nearly identical numbers to Reinhart.

The average of the Sedin and Ladd contracts in 2020-21 dollars is $6.1 million.

Reinhart also matches up well in goals, assists and points per game with four active players who recently signed deals.

Player	Goals/G	Assists/G	Points/G
Sam Reinhart	0.28	0.37	0.65
Dylan Larkin	0.28	0.41	0.68
Bo Horvat	0.28	0.38	0.66
Travis Konecny	0.28	0.34	0.62
Viktor Arvidsson	0.36	0.29	0.65

Larkin’s contract headlines the list at $6.25 million in 2020 dollars. The Predators got a steal with Arvidsson’s $4.25 million contract, signing him to a seven-year deal after his entry-level contract expired. This will be Reinhart’s third contract. The Sabres got good value from his two-year bridge deal, but the total savings may have been greater if they had signed him to a long-term contract in 2018.

While arbitration hearings are known to have unexpected outcomes, it makes sense to expect Reinhart’s contract to come in at around $6 million.

Linus Ullmark comparables

Player	Cap hit	% of cap	2020-21
Devan Dubnyk	$3.5 million	5.83	$4.75 million
Michal Neuvirth	$2.4 million	3.73	$3.04 million
Joonas Korpisalo	$2.8 million	3.44	$2.8 million
Alex Georgiev	$2.425 million	2.98	$2.425 million
Jonas Gustavsson	$1.5 million	2.5	$2.04 million
Darcy Kuemper	$1.55 million	2.12	$1.73 million
Philipp Grubauer	$1.5 million	2	$1.63 million

Ullmark’s next contract is bit harder to pin down. Comparable goalie deals have been all over the map.

The clearest connection is to the Rangers’ Georgiev, who avoided his scheduled arbitration hearing by agreeing to a two-year deal worth $2.425 million. Georgiev is 31-27-6 with a .912 save percentage during the past two seasons while Ullmark is 32-28-8 with a .910.

Here are the career numbers at the time of signing for Ullmark and the others.

The NHLPA, of course, would try to argue that Ullmark is more like Dubnyk and Neuvirth, especially after taking the starting job away from Hutton. The Sabres could counter that it’s more of a 1A and 1B situation while pointing to the contracts of Gustavsson and Kuemper. They can also admit into evidence the injury history of Ullmark, who missed 18 games with a lower-body ailment last year.

Given the recency of Georgiev’s deal, which was finalized Thursday, a $2.5 million contract should be the ballpark for Ullmark.

Victor Olofsson comparables

Player	Cap hit	% cap	2020-21
Yanni Gourde	$5.16 million	6.5	$5.3 million
Ondrej Palat	$3.33 million	4.83	$3.94 million
Dominik Kubalik	$3.7 million	4.54	$3.7 million
Andreas Johnsson	$3.4 million	4.17	$3.4 million

Only 44 rookies have reached 20 goals in the past decade, making it easy to find Olofsson’s comparables. Since the winger missed 15 games with an ankle injury, we’ll look at goals, assists and points per game.

The Lightning pounced when Gourde finished his 25-goal, 64-point rookie season. Though he still had one year left on a contract paying $1 million, the sides joined on a six-year, $31 million extension.

Tampa Bay also liked what it saw from Palat, giving him a three-year deal for $10 million.

The more recent comps are Johnsson and Kubalik. Toronto signed Johnsson a year ago for four years and $13.6 million. Kubalik led all rookies with 30 goals this season, leading to a two-year extension this month at $3.7 million per season.

The framework is in place for a similar contract for Olofsson.

The total of the three ballpark figures is $12.2 million. Adding that to the Sabres’ cap brings it to $80.9 million, just $600,000 under the limit. With up to $3.7 million in entry-level performance bonuses available to Rasmus Dahlin and Dylan Cozens, the Sabres will want to bring in their three arbitration players at lower amounts or shed salaries to avoid a second straight cap overage.

Having an arbitration case will open a second buyout window for the Sabres. It will run for 48 hours beginning on the third day after the last arbitration award or settlement.

But there are three big deals to make before thinking about that.

“We’ve had good dialogue,” Adams said, “and we feel very strongly that those are conversations that will just continue and that we’ll be able to get those done.”

(Top photo: Bill Wippert/NHLI via Getty Images)