It’s dynasty start-up draft season!
Before launching into a deep-dive of a few sleepers I believe you should be targeting in your upcoming drafts, let me first start by offering well-wishes to you and those close to you as we navigate these waters of uncertainty relating to the COVID-19 crisis. Sometimes real life needs to take priority over our fantasy lives. Be safe out there!
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With that out of the way, let’s move on to a far more fun and entertaining topic, the elusive and highly-prized dynasty sleeper.
First thing to realize is that each analyst has their own definition of what constitutes a “sleeper” prospect. To be perfectly honest, I don’t hold to any particular definition nor have I drawn any lines in the sand as to what may, or may not, be a player holding sleeper status. But I do try to keep to three generalized components:
- The player generally falls outside the first 12 rounds of a start-up draft
- The player generally is not seen as a starting fantasy talent in most formats
- The player possesses starting-roster upside within the next two seasons
I say “generalized” when talking about player valuation because the variables in the equation can be very fluid. A trade, an injury or even an interview by the head coach or offensive coordinator can quickly change the dynamic and send a player’s value soaring.
My favorite sleepers, and those I target most often, are of the deep-sleeper variety — those players dynasty owners can add near the end of a start-up draft that produces “who?” comments from league-mates. Even better if they are added out of your free agency pool at zero cost.
Even one correct call on a sleeper can have a dramatic impact on your long-term dynasty performance.
Just a quick note before I begin — my average draft position (ADP) and ranking reference points are from DLF’s positional rankings and most recent (May) ADP study. Both can be found at: http://DynastyLeagueFootball.com
Without any further delay, let’s get to some of my top sleepers for 2020.
Not-So Deep Sleepers
Jordan Howard, RB MIA
Age: 25 ADP: 149 Rank: RB51
The NFL Draft played to Howard’s benefit when the Dolphins didn’t select proven young talent at the running back position, choosing instead to add oft-injured veteran Matt Breida in a draft-day trade. This suggests the Dolphins’ possess confidence in Howard as no less than an early-down producer. After putting together three seasons with 250 or more carries while with the Bears, Howard was shipped to Philadelphia and would only garner 119 carries in 2019 after the Eagles selected rookie runner Miles Sanders in the rookie draft that same year.
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Breida certainly appears to be the lightning component in the Dolphins backfield and will factor on third downs, but don’t discount Howard’s ability to stay on the field. Still only 25 years of age, with fresh legs and a clear role, dynasty coaches continue to snub this RB with the 4.3 career YPC.
Josh Reynolds, WR LAR
Age: 25 Rank: WR76 ADP: 180
I’ve always been a Josh Reynolds fan but couldn’t see a clear path to a starting role. But then the Rams traded Brandin Cooks to the Texans this offseason, providing Reynolds with his best opportunity for a starting role since filling in for Cooper Kupp (ACL) in 2018. He responded with 29 receptions and five touchdowns on 53 targets that year.
At 6 feet 3 inches, 196 pounds, Reynold possesses WR1 size but in a WR3 role and he’s a free agent in 2021 along with the aforementioned Kupp. Fellow starting receiver Robert Woods is contracted through 2021. There will be flux with the Rams’ receiver corps over the next 12 months and Reynolds has the most to gain with a noteworthy season. I’m extremely excited about his prospects in 2020 and even more so about the fact the dynasty community still hasn’t noticed.
Blake Jarwin, TE DAL
Age: 25 Rank: TE23 ADP: 163
Blake Jarwin remains my ace in the hole at the tight end position for 2020, but word is starting to get out.
There’s no questioning the offense in Big D in 2020 as the Cowboys added rookie receiver CeeDee Lamb to an already productive duo of Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. With Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, one could make the argument there may not be enough balls to make for a productive tight end. While this could be the case, I’m willing to risk a selection prior to Round 13 to find out.
Every year, at least two tight ends appear from nowhere to become fantasy relevant. Jarwin is my top pick for 2020. Jason Witten and his 63 receptions on 83 targets have departed, Jarwin has inherited the TE1 role and Dak Prescott loves to find his tight end safety valve. With one of the best young offenses in the league, Jarwin is primed for statistically relevant production in 2020 and beyond. If you play in a tight end premium league, he’s an even greater low-value sleeper. But don’t wait too long as his ADP has risen from 227 in February of this year to his current value of 163.
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Deep Sleepers
Chris Herndon, TE NYJ
Age: 24 Rank: TE24 ADP: 200
Chris Herndon has nearly fallen off the dynasty radar following a disastrous 2019 season which started with a four-game suspension. Upon his return, he then suffered a hamstring followed by a rib injury, ultimately landing him on injured reserve. His total 2019 production: one reception, seven yards.
Herndon has since completely healed, should start from Day 1, and word is the Jets still believe he’s a dynamic talent at the position. As a fourth-round rookie selection in 2018, he produced 502 yards and four touchdowns on 39 receptions, including a three-game stretch of touchdowns beginning in Week 4.
The under-appreciated Ryan Griffin is still in the green and white and could compete for targets but the dynamic talent at the position resides with Herndon and he’ll be the starter from Game 1.
Allen Lazard, WR GB
Age: 24 Rank: WR82 ADP: 191
Allen Lazard appeared on the landscape in mid-2019 as a rookie, seizing the starting wideout role from the under-performing and inconsistent Marquez Valdes-Scantling, notching his first (and only) 100-yard game of the season on Dec. 1 against the New York Giants. Following that game, Lazard struggled but ended the season on a high note when he produced a combined nine receptions for 114 yards and a touchdown on 17 targets in his final two games. Unfortunately, he was rendered statistically irrelevant in the playoffs.
Fast forward to 2020 and the Packers did little to add receiver competition other than signing veteran free agent Devin Funchess, who lost his 2019 season to a broken collarbone. In a recent interview, quarterback Aaron Rodgers mentioned Lazard by name, indicating the young receiver is on the radar.
In a passing attack featuring Davante Adams, who will occupy double-coverage on most routes, if Lazard is able to develop further confidence in 2020 and stay on the field in three-receiver sets, there remains a lot of upside given his current WR82 status.
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Steven Sims, WR WAS
Age: 23 Rank: WR94 ADP: 219
An undrafted free agent (UDFA) in 2019, Sims was a virtual unknown until his late-season emergence when he compiled a 20/230/4 stat line over his final three games. And that was with Dwayne Haskins under center for two of the games.
The Tyreek Hill halo continues to loom large as teams search for a similar dynamic. Enter Steven Sims, who gained notice while first standing out on special teams, eventually finding his way to the starting roster as a slot receiver. What followed in production to end 2019 sets the stage for the beginning of 2020.
The Redskins are looking to be more dynamic on offense in 2020 and Sims should be a mainstay in space as the team looks to get the ball out of sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins’ hands more quickly. Sims is a threat to score every time he touches the ball and his average of nine targets over his final four games to end 2019 can’t be ignored. As a Round 18 value, there’s tremendous opportunity for the player to render this ranking as an oversight.
Deep-Deep Sleepers
Isaiah Coulter, WR HOU
Age: 21 Rank: WR109 ADP: 229
Another UDFA receiver, this time from 2020. At 6 feet 3 inches, 190 pounds, Coulter presents a height profile different than most other Texan receivers. He’s a raw small-school prospect (Rhode Island) but with big production.
Coulter isn’t primed for production in 2020 but his size, receiving talents and opportunity could make him a trending player in 2021 and it’s not out of the question that it could be sooner should injury occur on the depth chart above him. He’s a raw player but has the “it” factor I like in my rookies and sleepers.
Don’t target him unless you play in a deep-roster league as to do so could put him on the radar of your competition. Instead, put him on your “watch” list, continue to monitor his progress through camp and preseason and be ready to act when the wind blows in his favor. Until then, he’s only found as DLF’s WR109, so he’s clearly off-the-radar for all but the deepest of dynasty leagues.
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Tajae Sharpe, WR MIN
Age: 25 Rank: WR100 ADP: Unranked
Sharpe has had his moments in the NFL since being a fifth-round selection by Tennessee in 2016. He missed a full year (2017) due to a foot injury but has played in all but one game in his other three seasons, producing a combined 92 receptions, 1,167 yards and eight touchdowns. He found his way to Minnesota this offseason following the Stefon Diggs trade to Buffalo.
The Vikings present an optimal landing spot for Sharpe as he’ll immediately compete with Olabisi Johnson to start on the outside across from veteran receiver Adam Thielen, a competition he can win due to his size (6 feet 2 inches), hands and physicality. The Titans struggled to find quarterback consistency in all Sharpe’s years with the team and the change of scenery could provide upside for the still-young (25) receiver.
Should he see material snaps in 2020, it’s not out of the question Tajae Sharpe could find meaningful production. Remember that he’s the deepest of sleepers and if he doesn’t produce within the first four-to-six games of the 2020 season, there’s little reason to clog your roster by holding on to him.
Darnell Mooney, WR CHI
Age: 22 Rank: WR107 ADP: 270
The Bears selected Mooney in the fifth round of the 2020 NFL Draft following his impressive 4.38 40-time at the NFL Combine. The team moved on from veteran speedster Taylor Gabriel prior to the draft and Mooney figures to replace the lost speed dynamic brought by Gabriel.
Out of Tulane, the small-framed (5 feet 9 inches/176 pounds) Mooney could press for a role early in the season playing behind starting receivers Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller, but will compete against Ted Ginn Jr. and 2019 rookie Riley Ridley for snaps. As mentioned previously, teams are seeking their own Tyreek Hill component and Mooney’s rise is likely directly related to that search.
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Mooney profiles as a player whose value could erupt higher if he’s able to carve out a role as a rookie and become trusted within the offense. He’s a worthwhile late-round selection well ahead of his current ADP of 270.
Dan Arnold, TE ARI
Age: 25 Rank: TE51 ADP: Unranked
The Cardinals haven’t had a relevant tight end in many years and in his second year as the head coach, Kliff Kingsbury now has the helm of a young and dynamic offense which could benefit from a productive tight end to work the middle of the field and on seam routes.
In Arizona’s final game of 2019, the recently acquired Arnold produced 76 yards and a touchdown on four receptions, showcasing potential for 2020. Still young (25), possessing the body of a pure “move” player at the position and within one of the better young offenses in the league, Arnold has a chance to be a difference-maker early in the season.
In tight-end premium leagues or as a developmental player in deep-roster leagues, Arnold should be added on the chance he’s established within the first four games of 2020.
I hope you’ve enjoyed this quick look at some of my favorite sleeper prospects of 2020. With good training camps and just a little good fortune, perhaps one or two of these players will become household names in the coming year(s) and provide you with many years of production.
Follow me on Twitter: @DLF_Jeff
(Top photo: Al Bello/Getty Images)
