Shortly after he signed forward Clayton Keller to an eyebrow-raising, eight-year, $57.2 million contract extension on Sept. 4, Coyotes president of hockey operations John Chayka delivered the conference call equivalent of a mic drop when he told media: “Following the herd will ensure that you’ll never be number one.”
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Chayka isn’t following other general managers in his approach to restricted free agency. The Coyotes’ recent crop of RFAs has not yet reached the level of this summer’s crop of RFA stars, but while Toronto’s Mitch Marner, Tampa Bay’s Brayden Point, Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen, Vancouver’s Brock Boeser, Calgary’s Matthew Tkachuk, Winnipeg’s Kyle Connor and Patrik Laine, Philadelphia’s Ivan Provorov and Boston’s Charlie McAvoy remain unsigned, Chayka has locked up centers Christian Dvorak and Nick Schmaltz, defenseman Jakob Chychrun and Keller (a wing), thereby securing the organization’s perceived core while gaining clarity on his future cap structure.
While Columbus Blue Jackets RFA defenseman Zach Werenski chose a short-term term extension on Monday, agreeing to a $15 million, three-year deal, Chayka is playing the long game with his key RFAs, signing them to six-, six-, seven- and eight-year extensions, respectively. When Arizona signed Schmaltz to a seven-year, $40.95 million extension in March, we wrote that Chayka’s moves in his third year as GM would define his tenure. Keller’s signing only underscores that notion.
“One of the things that I give John full credit for and why I like him as person is that I think he’s willing to kind of go outside the box and think about things in a different way,” Keller’s agent, Scott Bartlett said. “As you know, Arizona traditionally has had a hard time retaining guys in their prime or having enough money to pay that top-dollar, so he said, ‘Well, I’m going to believe in the guys that I believe in and I’m going to try to get a deal done.
“‘Maybe it’s a little more up front and it’s a little more guaranteed than a young guy traditionally is going to get, but I believe in him and I’m going to secure him long term and I’m going to have this development culture in Arizona where ultimately, in four years, I could look like a genius.’ I think he’s willing to take that risk and certainly that’s a little bit of a different model than some of these other teams that say, ‘Well, I’d like a little bit more surety on where the player is going to be, development-wise or in his curve, before I shell out the big dollars.’”
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Chayka acknowledged the risk inherent in his decision. If it pans out for the Coyotes, those numbers could look great in a few years. If it doesn’t pan out, Chayka could be looking for a job, but there was plenty of thought behind the decision.
“The easiest thing to do is let the players play out their RFA years, see what their production is at the end of the year, where they slot in, see where the market sets and then you’re pretty well set,” he said. “Relatively speaking, there’s not a lot to discuss. A player fits into a certain slot. Whether you want to pay a player that amount or not, you can debate that, but the actual market for these players once they have played is set.
“When it’s a year out, there is still some forecasting going on on both sides. The market hasn’t set yet and certainly, there will be another market next year with some other RFAs that come up. There’s a host of benefits to the team in doing it a year early. You don’t have to worry about offer-sheet possibilities but for us it’s more about planning ahead, being proactive. Now we know what we’ve got for the next nine years with that specific player and we can slot him into our lineup and work around that. You can manage your cash flows. You know what the structure is in terms of signing bonuses. With a player like that, who we knew we wanted to have around for a long time, those benefits outweighed the inherent risks.”
The most difficult forecasting to do is on a player’s development, but Chayka based Keller’s value on more than a disappointing sophomore season in which he dipped from 65 points to 47, perhaps skewing the perception of his value.
“If his years would have been reversed at 47 points and 65 points, psychologically that’s a big difference, but we don’t think the player got worse. We look at the entire body of work,” Chayka said. “He’s done it at the NHL level and now he’s had a struggle of about 40 games that really impacted his overall body of work at the NHL level but we feel confident that this is going to be a productive player at the NHL level for a long time.
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“There’s a strong analytical piece to that. You’re looking at comps and you’re looking at trends and you’re looking at some underlying information that leads to the production. And if you’re giving someone $57 million, you’ve got to understand how they’re going to react to that psychologically, how they’re going to react to coaching and training and all those kinds of things after there is a big, life-changing event. You’re forecasting humans and that’s a difficult thing to do, but if you get it right it is obviously beneficial and you get some value on the team side of things.”
Chayka has said before that while others view adversity as a negative, he often views it as a positive; a building block. There were other factors in Keller’s production drop last season, including a rash of injuries that decimated the Coyotes’ skill base and forced the team to play a more conservative style, but there is no denying Keller’s role in that decline. Both Chayka and coach Rick Tocchet believe Keller learned a lot in his second season. Bartlett echoed those thoughts.
“We talked a lot last year and the season he had certainly wasn’t for lack of desire or effort,” Bartlett said. “There was a banged-up lineup and he’s a skilled guy that plays a real nice one-two type game and if you don’t have guys to do that with it’s difficult.
“Secondarily, once the team started to have success kind of locking it down without some of those horses, I think they tried to batten down the hatches and say, ‘Hey, this is how we’re going to win hockey games.’ Clayton bought into that. He wasn’t as worried about whether he got a point here or there. It was, ‘Hey, I’m going to make this push for the playoffs and if I have to chip it in I’ll chip it in.’
“The next piece would just be acknowledging that it’s called the sophomore slump for a reason. The league figures you out a little bit and they start to game plan for you. They know what you’re all about. He’s an All-Star, so when people were coming to play Arizona, No. 9 was circled. It’s a thing that a young kid has to learn to work through and find ways to push his game to the next level to continue to be as effective as he was when he was a rookie.”
Keller’s development wasn’t the only factor the Coyotes were forecasting when they chose to give him more money in the early years in order to buy up four years of unrestricted free agency. Chayka said the Coyotes pushed for the eight-year term.
“To buy up as many years of unrestricted free agency as we could at today’s prices, we thought that was beneficial with the shifting market of what the cap is going to look like in five, six, seven, eight years,” Chayka said. “There’s some bigger events occurring with expansion, new TV deals that are going to continue to make the cap increase, as well as general revenue projections so for us to have our core locked up, that was a goal.”
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Bartlett acknowledged that there was also risk on Keller’s part in accepting more term and forgoing years of unrestricted free agency. When Keller finally reaches UFA status in 2028, he will be four weeks shy of his 30th birthday.
“Is there a chance that towards the back half of this thing he could be underpaid a little bit? Yeah, of course, but at the same time, it’s a lot of money and he’s saying, ‘I’m going have a great opportunity to be part of something special here,’ so that’s kind of what the thought process was,” Bartlett said. “Everything’s a balance. You can’t go to work every day feeling like, ‘Oh my goodness, I’m getting absolutely screwed over,’ but coming off specifically the season he had last year and seeing the faith the organization showed him, I think he wanted to repay that.
“Auston Matthews is one of the very few guys who is able to garner a double-digit salary on that type of short-term deal he signed (five years, $58.17 million). If you’re not one of those guys — if you’re $3 million below that — then the conversation shifts. There’s a really big difference between $35 million and close to $60 million. If Auston Matthews or any player was going to sign a deal for $35 million that was a five-year and they blow out their knee in Year 3 then you have made $35 million instead the $135 million you’re hoping for.
“It’s all about the balance of security and feeling like this is still a really good chunk. Is there a chance that he’s trading some upside? Yes, of course, but he’s saying, ‘I understand that going in and what I’m doing that for is to really lock down the security side of this where I know at least I’m going to get a good percentage of what I could get out of these years even if it’s not the total max.’”
The eight-year extension for a player without much NHL evidence drew a wide range of reaction from analysts. Chayka offered another one of those mic-drop moments in addressing critics.
“I drafted Clayton Keller seventh overall and some questioned that at the time as well,” he said. “I think that will be proven to be a good decision and I feel the same about this decision. Everyone looks at the deal today. The reality is there is still a lot of RFAs unsigned. (When they) sign, there will be a bit of a different market.”
The Söderström dilemma
When discussing the best 2019-20 option for Victor Söderström, it’s hard to get a definitive answer from Chayka or the Coyotes’ first-round pick. Both recite the expected hope that the player will earn a spot on the NHL roster out of training camp.
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Realistically, that’s not going to happen, both because Söderström is 18 and because the Coyotes have at least six capable NHL defensemen: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Jason Demers, Alex Goligoski, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Chychrun and Jordan Oesterle, with Ilya Lyubushkin and Kyle Capobianco providing depth.
At some point, the Coyotes will likely decide between sending Söderström back to Sweden for another year in the SHL, or putting him in Tucson with the AHL’s Roadrunners to learn how to play on the smaller North American ice surface.
“Players develop best where they feel comfortable,” Chayka said. “It’s easy to say, ‘Put them where you want to put them but they are the ones living there, and they have to feel like they are getting the most for their careers.
“The ice surface creates a different game and a different style of play and you have different styles of players over in Europe so what’s the best benefit? Him being in North America, playing a more North American style or being over in Sweden where he has played before and has that level of comfort and family? With some young players, family is more important so you have to take everything into consideration.”
For his part, Söderström is simply enjoying taking part in Coyotes rookie camp and eventually training camp.
“It’s kind of unreal,” he said. “When the season ended, you had no idea where you were going to be so first of all, the draft was an awesome experience; something you’ll remember for the rest of your life.
“It’s obviously a smaller rink here so that would be the reason to stay here to learn more about the North American game, but I have all my friends and family back home and we have a really good team this year, too, in Brynäs. If I don’t make the team, I’ll talk to John and the others and see what they think is best for my long-term development and we’ll go from there.”
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Arizona hockey still growing
USA Hockey recently announced participation numbers for the 2018-19 season and Arizona hockey continues to grow.
Per the figures, Arizona ranked second among all U.S. NHL markets in total growth percentage over the past five years. In addition, Arizona ranked first in total percentage growth for female hockey players and first for total 8-and-under hockey participation percentage over the past five years.
“We are thrilled with our growth numbers over the past season,” Coyotes president and CEO, Ahron Cohen, said in a release. “It’s really an amazing story and a testament to a lot of hard work by so many people associated with our team, including our brand ambassador, Lyndsey Fry, and our director of hockey development, Matt Shott.”
Allen finds a home
Scott Allen didn’t expect to be job hunting this summer, but an anxious offseason produced another unexpected result when the Hershey Bears (the Washington Capitals’ AHL affiliate) hired the former Coyotes assistant on Aug. 30 as an assistant to head coach Spencer Carbery. Allen replaces Mike Eastwood, who left Hershey’s coaching staff to accept a position outside the organization.
“It basically fell out of the sky because I didn’t even know there was a job available there,” said Allen, who was taking his youngest daughter, Camryn, to college when the offer materialized. “I was contacted by another coach in the American League last week. Within 24 hours I had interviewed with four different people. The next morning, Brian MacLellan, the GM of the (Washington) Capitals talked to me and the day after that they offered me the job.”
Allen coached the Coyotes defensemen last season and guided the penalty-killing unit to a tie for the league’s best success rate (85 percent). The unit also produced 16 shorthanded goals, second-best in the league. So what is his new gig?
“That’s the best part,” Allen, said, laughing. “It’s working with the forwards and running the power play. And you know what my reply was when they told me? ‘Perfect.’”
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Allen has a deep and diverse history in the North American minor leagues. He is well acquainted with Hersey.
“I think they’ve had an American League team since 1938 (they have),” he said. “When I started coaching in the East Coast Hockey League, I was in Johnstown, Pennsylvania. I was only a couple hours west of Hershey so I would get down there a couple of times a year.
“I’ve been there as an opposing coach and I love the history. In the hockey world, some of these things are real appealing to you. Working for an Original 6 franchise would be nice it at some point in the NHL, but outside of the National Hockey League, there are few organizations like this one. It’s a great franchise and it’s always been very well run.”
Given all of his coaching stops, Allen and his wife, Traci, are experts at moving, but the suddenness of this shift caught them off guard.
“My wife and I were sitting last night and one of the things we talked about was, right now at this very moment, we should be on the road to Arizona,” Allen said on Aug. 30. “That’s how quickly things just change. We thought we had everything planned out in regard to how we were going to do things, what we were going to do and the two of us were going to move down to Arizona.
“Had this job come up in June, then we would have had a chance to get everything done and squared away and she and I would right now would be on our way to Hershey but that’s not the case. She is going to join me in Hershey. We just don’t know how quickly.”
Allen is looking forward to a fresh start, but he said he will miss Arizona.
“I love the fans,” he said. “I knew when this all went down that the fans were very supportive and I couldn’t be more appreciative of that and I’m certainly going to miss that. That’s the thing that bothers me the most is not having the opportunity to see this thing through, not to see where we might be able to take this whole thing, but I’m very appreciative of the Washington Capitals and the Hershey Bears organization for giving me this opportunity.”
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NHLPA weighs CBA
Derek Stepan attended the NHL Players’ Association meetings regarding the collective bargaining agreement on Wednesday in Chicago. While the membership is loath to reveal much of what was discussed, the Coyotes center came away with a distinctly different impression than he had during the 2012-13 lockout.
“A lot more guys are involved and a lot more guys are educated, and that’s good to see,” said Stepan, who took over as the Coyotes player representative after Kevin Connauton was traded to Colorado. “The last lockout stunk. It was brutal. It felt like we’d get close and then get hung up and it was back to ‘We’re not going to play for a while.’ I think the guys that went through that lockout said, ‘Let’s not let this happen again’ in the sense of not being educated enough to know exactly what’s going on.
“In the last lockout, a lot of guys were trying to play catch-up and getting information overload. (NHLPA executive director Don Fehr) and the PA have done a really good job of making sure that doesn’t happen again. We’re a lot closer as a PA and a union and that was eye-opening for me this time around.”
The NHL has already decided it will not opt out of the current agreement, which runs for two more seasons. The NHLPA has until Sunday to decide which direction it will go, with the most discussed issue the players’ escrow percentage.
Stepan expects a vote on Friday.
“The owners seem very eager to get a deal done, we’re very eager as well and we obviously have a quick deadline coming up on us,” he said. “We’re working to decide as quickly as possible, but it’s a little harder to get 750 guys on the same page.”
Jason Demers and Brad Richardson are expected to serve as Stepan’s assistant player reps this season. Stepan was the New York Rangers player rep for five seasons and said he enjoys getting to know the other reps.
His only complaint? “It doesn’t pay well.”
Loose pucks
- Chayka said defenseman Kyle Capobianco has been cleared for contact and will be a full participant in training camp, which begins with media day on Thursday. Capobianco suffered a torn ACL against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Feb. 7 and had surgery. “He had a good rehab,” Chayka said. “We’ll manage the preseason games, depending on how the practices go, but for now, he’ll have a full training camp.”
- As of last week, Chayka did not expect to have any players in camp on PTOs (professional tryouts).
(Photo of, left to right, Clayton Keller, Jakob Chychrun, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Christian Dvorak: Christian Petersen / Getty Images)