A Low-Cost, Low-Tech Climate Solution That Saves Lives

How do you save lives in an era of cascading climate disasters? You warn people of the dangers approaching. You give them time to get out of harm’s way — and a place to take shelter.

These are the main elements of what is called an early warning system. It’s a relatively low-tech, low-cost way to reduce the death toll from storms, heat waves and wildfires. Every country should put them in place in the next five years, the United Nations says.

Accuracy matters. The more precisely forecasters can track the path of a tropical cyclone, for instance, the more accurately government officials can pinpoint which areas should evacuate.

Timing matters, too. A three-day advance forecast is more helpful than two, government officials and aid workers say.

And then, there’s trust. One study found that when citizens trust their public officials, they are more likely to evacuate when they are warned.

Bangladesh is among the countries credited with saving many lives with its early warning system. I asked Kawsar Parvin, the deputy director of the Bangladesh Meteorological Department in Dhaka, how it works.

She told me alerts go out three to five days in advance of a potentially disastrous weather event: extreme cold, heat, cyclones and heavy rains. Bangladesh has a particularly sophisticated, battle-tested system for cyclones.

Radio and television news outlets broadcast weather warnings. But the real dissemination happens with an army of 76,000 volunteers. When a cyclone is on the way, they fan out across their own communities. They hoist a series of flags to convey the level of risk: One flag signals a cyclone is predicted to make landfall in the area, two flags signal imminent danger, three flags mean the highest level of danger.

With loudspeakers and megaphones, on bicycle rickshaws and three-wheeled cycles, they spread the news to their neighbors, street by street: A cyclone is coming. Get out of the way. Go to a shelter.

Women make up half of the volunteer force, Achala Navaratne, the Bangladesh country representative for the Red Cross, told me. That’s important for gender equity, but also to make sure women hear from other women. “Ensuring early action is the critical factor,” he said. “Having community volunteers from their own community helps.”

Bangladesh has long been vulnerable to cyclones that form over the Bay of Bengal. Climate change can intensify the strength and frequency of cyclones.

There are more than 5,000 permanent cyclone shelters in Bangladesh. Twice as many shelters had to be established during Cyclone Amphan, which barreled toward Bangladesh in May 2020, amid the coronavirus pandemic. More space was needed for physical distancing. All told, 2 million Bangladeshis were evacuated from their homes, along with 500,000 cattle and goats. Livestock is often a rural family’s main source of livelihood and asset — their paycheck and their savings account. They, too, have to be accounted for in early warning efforts.

The World Meteorological Organization cites the Cyclone Amphan precautions as a model of effective early warning. The death toll was limited to 72 people in Bangladesh.

“Bangladesh can share multiple lessons to other countries on good preparedness,” Navaratne said.

The United Nations Secretary General, António Guterres, recently tasked the W.M.O. to come up with a global plan to cover everyone on earth with early warning systems.

A third of the global population is not covered, and that share is far higher for the people of Africa. “This is unacceptable,” Mr. Guterres said, “particularly with climate impacts sure to get even worse.”

Just creating an early warning system isn’t enough, though.

Take the case of Brazil. In February, meteorologists failed to forecast the extraordinary rains that pummeled the hills above Rio. In three hours came 10 inches of rainfall on the city of Petrópolis, the highest rainfall since records began in 1932. The mudslides that followed killed more than 200 people, Marcelo Seluchi, who coordinates modeling and operations for the country’s early warning system, told my colleague Manuela Andreoni. By contrast, accurate predictions of extreme rains in Minas Gerais and Bahia states, also this year, limited the death toll to about 20 in each state.

Or, look at what happened in Germany last summer. European meteorologists issued an “extreme” flood alert. German officials told my colleagues at the time they had never before seen so much rain falling so fast. The message to get out of harm’s way didn’t get through to the public. Tough questions were raised in the following months about why local officials did not act on flood warnings more aggressively.

Disasters are costly in human terms. Over the last 50 years, weather and water-related disasters have claimed 115 lives and exacted an estimated $202 million in losses on average every day, according to a 2021 study by the World Meteorological Organization.

Essential news from The Times

Methane emissions: Concentrations of the potent greenhouse gas jumped in 2021 by the largest amount since measurements began.

Research cutbacks: The National Weather Service has suspended routine launches of weather balloons at some sites.

Electric cars: Gas prices have apparently made some Americans think about switching.

Fighting disinformation: The image-sharing site Pinterest says it will remove content that denies the existence or effects of climate change.

Wild weather: According to a Gallup poll, one in three Americans has personally been affected by an extreme weather event in the past two years.

Road test: A Times reporter got a ride in one of New York City’s new electric taxis. Here’s what it was like.

Free bird: An African flamingo that escaped from a zoo in Kansas in 2005 was recently spotted in Texas.

From the Opinion section

Big brands leaving Russia: BP, Exxon and Shell have said they are divesting billions from the country. Here’s a list of other companies that are, and are not, pulling out.

Other stuff we’re following

• In a milestone, wind and solar generated a tenth of the world’s electricity in 2021, the BBC reported.

• The Canadian government has approved a new $12 billion offshore oil project, according to Reuters.

• Prime Minister Boris Johnson of Britain has announced plans to build more nuclear power plants, The Associated Press reported.

• A prominent NASA climate scientist and three other researchers were arrested in demonstrations this week, protest organizers said on Twitter.

• From Atmos: It was little noticed, but the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report mentioned colonialism as a cause of global warming.

• More than half of the public health emergencies in Africa are linked to climate change, the World Health Organization says.

• A TikTok influencer has tips on how to borrow rather than buy.

• Dolly Parton told National Geographic that not looking after the environment is like “being ugly to your mama.”

Before you go: Winemakers turn despair into deliciousness

Wildfires, along with the smoke and ash they bring, are devastating to wine producers. Wineries owned by billionaires or big corporations have the resources to withstand diminished harvests, or even a year or two with no wine at all. But many small West Coast vineyards now face existential threats each year. Here’s how they’re innovating to survive.

Thanks for reading. We’ll be back on Friday.

Manuela Andreoni, Claire O’Neill and Douglas Alteen contributed to Climate Forward.

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