Syracuse, N.Y. -- From a record-warm February to an unprecedented June heat wave, 2024 has so far been the warmest ever recorded in Syracuse.
For the first half of the year, the average temperature in Syracuse has been an extraordinary 6 degrees above normal. And the rest of the summer is expected to continue that trend.
Every month in 2024 has been abnormally warm. February 2024 was the warmest February ever recorded, at 9 degrees above normal. May 2024 just missed the record for the month by a tenth of a degree. And thanks to five consecutive days of 90 degrees, June 2024 ranks as the fourth-warmest month of June.
The first six months of 2024 continues a troubling trend: Of the 20 warmest such periods on record, 10 have occurred since 1998. And the warmth in the first half of this year follows Syracuse’s third-warmest full year on record in 2023.
Several factors are at play this year, including the stubborn position of the jet stream and a strong El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. Lurking in the background is human-caused climate change.
“Climate change is definitely playing a role,” said Jessica Spaccio, a climatologist at the Northeast Regional Climate Center. “When I look at the trend for the first six months of the year, the trendline is going up.”
The jet stream, a ribbon of air high in the atmosphere, also played a major role in the warm year.
“The location of the jet stream determines whether you’re going to be warm or cold,” said Tom Kines, a meteorologist with private forecasting company Accuweather. “We’ve had to deal with the jet stream to the north of us, which has prevented the cold air from coming in and allowed the warm air from the south to get up in our neck of the woods.”
During the winter, a strong El Nino dominated the weather patterns in the northern tier of the U.S., including Upstate New York. El Nino, an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean, tends to bring warm winters with less snow and more rain, like the one we just had.
Syracuse had just 50.5 inches of snow from January to April, compared to a normal of 81 inches during that period. Yet total precipitation has been slightly above normal as what would have fallen as snow instead came down as rain.
That lack of cold and snow kicked off a feedback loop, Kines said. When there’s snow on the ground and the Great Lakes are frozen, air moving in from Canada picks up the cold and brings it our way. When the Canadian air blows across bare ground and open water, there’s less cold air to pick up, he explained.
It’s not only the average temperature -- the sum of daily highs and lows divided by the number of days -- that set a record this year, Spaccio noted. The average low temperature in Syracuse so far in 2024 is 1.5 degrees higher than the previous record, set in the Dust Bowl year of 1933.
“When it’s hot weather we typically pay attention to daytime heat, but the nighttime heat plays a big role when you can’t open your window to cool things down,” she said. Health experts say hot nighttime temperatures put stress on the body and can increase the risk of heart and lung ailments.
There’s more heat headed our way this summer, too. The hottest part of the summer typically comes in July and August, and meteorologists are predicting that this summer could be one of the hottest on record -- as much as 3 to 4 degrees above normal. The hottest summer on record for Syracuse, in 2005, was just over 4 degrees higher than normal.