Will a Democrat Replace George Santos? Republicans' Chances of Losing Seat

After what can only be described as a chaotic freshman year in Congress, Representative George Santos was expelled from the U.S. House in a bipartisan vote Friday morning.

The Republican, who flipped New York's 3rd Congressional District in the 2022 midterms, made headlines before ever being sworn into office and has been accused of lying about everything from his resume to his financial statements. Friday was the third time the House held a vote to expel Santos, which was prompted after the bipartisan House Ethics Committee released a report that its investigators found "substantial" proof that Santos broke federal law.

In total, 311 House members, including 105 Republicans, voted to remove him. When asked while exiting the House floor about his reaction to the decision, Santos told a reporter, "What reaction? The House voted; that's their vote," according to The New York Times.

New York Governor Kathy Hochul is expected to call a special election to fill Santos' seat early next year—the Democrat has 10 days after the expulsion vote to make the call, and the vote must occur between 70 and 80 days after the proclamation. Santos' expulsion could open the door for Democrats to reclaim what has historically been a blue-leaning district, although Republicans have garnered momentum in the area in recent elections.

New York's 3rd Congressional District, which covers large sections of Long Island and parts of Queens, was won by President Joe Biden in 2020 by nearly 10 percentage points in 2020, and Former Representative Tom Suozzi won the congressional seat by roughly 12 points.

Two years later, Santos beat Democrat Robert Zimmerman by an 8-point margin, and Republicans have had victories in several local elections since. Earlier this month, the GOP gained unilateral control of Suffolk County after Democratic County Executive Steve Bellone was unable to seek reelection due to term limits. Republican Ed Romaine beat out Democratic candidate Dave Calone for county executive. It is the first time a Republican will sit as the head of Suffolk County in 20 years.

"It's definitely a toss-up seat in every sense of the phrase," Casey Burgat, an assistant professor and director of the legislative affairs program at the Graduate School of Political Management at The George Washington University, told Newsweek.

"Most elections forecasters rate it a pure toss-up as both Democrats and Republicans have won elections in the district in the past few cycles," Burgat said. "Santos' behavior and ultimate expulsion may give Democrats the edge in 2024 as his constituents appear to be both embarrassed and angry at his version of representation in the House. His infamy is likely to drag down the eventual Republican nominee who will have to work to distance him/herself from Santos' reputation."

Former Representative Steve Israel, a Democrat who previously represented a version of New York's 3rd district, echoed in an interview with NBC News that Santos' vacant seat was a toss-up between the two parties.

"Long Island is notorious for swing voters," Israel said.

"You can't just look at the numbers and say it's a decent Democratic district," he added. "It's become a very fluid district where people are voting against their own party registration."

During his tenure in office, Santos faced calls to step down from both Democrats and Republicans in his state, including from leaders of the Nassau County Republican Party in his district. New York Democratic Committee Chair Jay Jacobs celebrated Santos' expulsion in a statement on Friday, adding that his party was ready to "the most qualified candidate" forward to fill the now vacant seat.

"With today's House vote to finally expel George Santos from its body, this ends a sorry chapter in the history of our county and our country," Jacobs said in a statement shared with Newsweek. "His loss is a huge win for decency, honesty, and the rule of law."

"In close consultation with Governor Kathy Hochul and Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Queens Democratic Chair, Gregory Meeks, and myself will be working expeditiously to nominate the most qualified candidate with the best chance of success in the upcoming Special Election to fill the 3rd Congressional seat," the statement said.

Correction 12/03/2023 4:20 p.m. ET: This article was amended to make clear that former Suffolk County County Executive Steve Bellone was term-limited rather than lost re-election.