Polling averages and surveys released just days before voters head to the polls for the midterm elections show that in several Senate races across the country, Democratic and Republican candidates are neck-and-neck.
In New Hampshire's tight Senate race, incumbent Democratic Senator Maggie Hassan has a small lead over GOP challenger Don Bolduc. According to the polling average compiled by RealClearPolitics, Hassan leads 47.7 percent to Bolduc's 47 percent. Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Hassan with a larger 3 percent lead, with support from 48.5 percent of voters compared to Bolduc's 45.3 percent. A poll from Emerson College released Friday found Hassan with a 4 point lead, with 49 percent of voters supporting the Democrat and 45 percent supporting Bolduc. The poll's margin of error is 3.3 percent.
Former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt, a Republican, appears to have an advantage over Democratic incumbent Senator Catherine Cortez Masto. According to RealClearPolitics, Cortez Masto's polling average is 44.9 percent compared to Laxalt's 47.3 percent. In addition, FiveThirtyEight's polling average shows Laxalt with a smaller lead over the Democrat: 46.9 to 45.7 percent. A poll from The Hill and Emerson College released last week shows Laxalt with a lead of 5 points—maintaining support from 50 percent of voters compared to Cortez Masto's 45 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 2.1 percent.
In Georgia, the race between incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock and GOP challenger Herschel Walker is a tossup. Both FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics' polling average show both within a point of each other. Each of the candidates have around 47 percent of support from voters, though Walker leads by a razor-thin margin. Meanwhile, a poll from Marist College released Friday showed the race was tied, with Warnock and Walker holding on to support from 48 percent of voters.
"This is a very close Senate contest in Georgia which may, once again, end up a runoff to determine which party controls the Senate," Lee M. Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement when the poll was released.
In the Ohio Senate race, Republican J.D. Vance has a lead over Democratic Representative Tim Ryan. RealClearPolitics shows Vance up by 5 points while FiveThirtyEight projects that the Republican has a lead of about 4 points over Ryan. A poll from Emerson College released on Friday showed Vance extending his lead with 51 percent of voters saying they back the Republican, while 43 percent said they support Ryan. The poll has a margin of error of 3 percent.
In Wisconsin, incumbent GOP Senator Ron Johnson maintains a small lead over Mandela Barnes, his Democratic challenger and the state's lieutenant governor. FiveThirtyEight puts Johnson's support at 49.8 percent and Barnes' at 46.5 percent. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics shows Johnson with 49.2 percent support and Barnes with 46.4 percent. A poll from the Trafalgar Group conducted between November 2 and 4 shows Johnson with support from 50.1 percent of voters, and Barnes with support of 47.4 percent. The survey's margin of error is 2.9 percent.
Polling in Arizona shows incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Kelly and Republican Blake Masters locked in a tight race. Kelly has a polling average of 48.1 percent compared to Masters' 46.3 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics projects the race is even closer, showing the Kelly's average is 48.2 percent while Masters' is 47.2 percent. A poll published by Emerson College on Friday, found Masters with support from 48 percent of voters and Kelly with 47 percent. This marked the first time in the race that a survey found Masters in the lead. The poll had a margin of error of 3 percent.
In North Carolina Republican Ted Budd appears to have a lead over Democrat Cheri Beasley. RealClearPolitics shows Budd up about 5 points while FiveThirtyEight shows the GOP candidate ahead by about 4 points. Polling from East Carolina University published last week, shows Budd leading Beasley by 6 points: 52 to 46 percent. The poll had a margin of error of 3.3 percent.
In Pennsylvania, polling shows Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz neck-and-neck. RealClearPolitics' polling average shows Oz with 47 percent voter support compared to Fetterman's 46.9 percent. In addition, FiveThirtyEight shows Fetterman with 46.8 percent and Oz with 46.4 percent support. The latest poll in the race, released by Fox 29 and InsiderAdvantage, shows Oz leading Fetterman 48 to 46 percent. The survey's margin of error is 3.58 percent.
Newsweek has reached out to the Democratic and Republican national committees for comment.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Xander Landen is a Newsweek weekend reporter. His focus is often U.S. politics, but he frequently covers other issues including ... Read more
