Why Ukraine Will Triumph in Avdiivka

As Russia's hopes of taking the Donetsk town of Avdiivka slip through Moscow's fingers, Ukrainian soldiers are keeping morale up while paying a painful price for defending the gateway to the rest of the eastern region.

"Physically, it is difficult for our soldiers," but the fighting spirit of Ukrainian troops tasked with ensuring Avdiivka doesn't fall remain high, Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Tavria group of forces covering Avdiivka, told Newsweek on Tuesday.

The Kremlin's fighters are now a week into their first major offensive effort in Ukraine since Kyiv launched its summer counteroffensive back in early June. Moscow has thrown several battalions at the Donetsk coking town in the heart of Ukraine's industrial heartland, which would be a significant tactical and symbolic win for Russia.

This combined arms assault on Avdiivka is Russia's most significant push on Ukrainian positions since the start of the year, the British defense ministry said on Tuesday.

Yet Western analysts now seem confident that Russia's costly efforts are doomed to fail. "It now seems likely Ukraine will hold on to Avdiivka," said Frederik Mertens, an analyst with the Hague Center for Strategic Studies.

The first few hours and days of an assault are crucial to break through before the other side can bring in new reserves, he told Newsweek. "For the moment Ukraine still seems to have the upper hand," even if Kyiv hasn't broken through Russia's defensive zone, Mertens added.

Russia's chances of successfully clearing Avdiivka seem "increasingly unlikely," the U.K. government agreed on Tuesday. The U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), also indicated in recent days that Russian forces have fallen short against the "notoriously well-fortified and defended Ukrainian stronghold," and that messaging in Moscow had changed to roll back expectations of a sweeping Russian victory.

It was a tough ask for Russian forces on the ground, depleted from months of Ukrainian counteroffensive actions, to launch a successful assault on such a heavily defended and battle-hardened Ukrainian town. But Russia likely made some gains around Avdiivka on Monday, the ISW said, "albeit at a relatively slower pace than in the initial attacks." Russia has also probably redeployed elements from two brigades to Avdiivka, the think tank added on Monday.

Russian activity around Avdiivka has now "decreased somewhat" in the past day, Colonel Shtupun told Newsweek on Tuesday. Ukrainian forces defending Avdiivka have repelled 10 Russian attacks since Monday, he said. Figures from Ukraine's General Staff in the previous few days have placed the number of Russian attacks on the town at around 50 percent more than this figure per day.

Russia has launched 16 airstrikes and almost 600 artillery shells across the front line in the Tavria's group's jurisdiction, which includes Avdiivka, over the past 24 hours, Shtupun said.

Russia's "current offensive is severe, but still not successful, mostly because of the unprecedented effectiveness of Ukrainian combat and reconnaissance UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles)," Major Viktor Trehubov, who serves in Ukraine's military, told Newsweek on Monday.

Russian casualties are also down, according to Shtupun. The first four days of Russia's offensive saw a spike in personnel losses, climbing to 800 Russian fighters per day, he said. "Now the total loss figures have decreased," he added. Russia is committing its light infantry soldiers to "certain death," he said.

Newsweek has reached out to the Russian defense ministry for comment via email.

Russia has sustained considerable heavy equipment losses and painfully high casualty counts in the battle for Avdiivka, open source intelligence reports and Ukrainian officials suggested in recent days.

In the first five days of the intensified attacks on Avdiivka, Russia's ranks lost at least three thousand people, Shtupun said. Around 18 Russian soldiers surrendered to Ukrainian forces, and 61 Russian tanks were destroyed, he added, as well as three Russian Su-25 ground-attack aircraft.

From now on, a lot hinges on how many losses Russia has and continues to rack up. It's not yet clear if the push on Avdiivka has cost Moscow more than it can afford, Mertens said.

Avdiivka has been a thorn in Russia's side since its proxy forces rose up in Donetsk in 2014 and Moscow annexed the Crimean peninsula to the south of mainland Ukraine. In nine years, Ukraine has had the time to meticulously built up its defenses, and it is "very difficult to displace them," Marina Miron, a post-doctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies at King's College London, U.K., told Newsweek.

Around 1,600 residents are still living in the town, Vitaliy Barabash, who heads up its military administration, has previously estimated. It had a pre-war population of around 30,000.

Russia taking control of Avdiivka makes sense militarily, and it would provide an important symbolic victory. The Ukrainian-controlled town sticks into Russia's defensive lines in Donetsk, and Russia has repeatedly tried to capture it. Russia will partly want Avdiivka to be able to better defend Donetsk against future Ukrainian offensives, and to head off artillery shelling on Donetsk City just to the south of Avdiivka, experts say.

Avdiivka, sitting on a hill, would be "ideal" for Russia and help secure control of the key highway between Avdiivka and Horlivka, to the northeast, Miron argued. It would also open up a route to the Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk city of Kramatorsk, located around 43 miles north of Avdiivka, she said.

But Russia has likely also zeroed in on Avdiivka to distract Ukrainian forces from other points along the front line, Michael Clarke, professor at the War Studies department at King's College London, told Newsweek last week.

Russia "urgently needs a 'significant victory,'" Shtupun said, although it's clear Ukraine's forces intend to deny Moscow any such win.

Correction 10/26/2023 at 7:45 a.m. ET: This article was updated to correct the reference to the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies.