Ted Cruz's Senate Future Could Be in Peril

Ted Cruz faces "nontrivial" odds of being voted out of office in 2024, according to one U.S. politics expert, speaking after Democratic Representative Colin Allred announced he is bidding for the seat on Monday.

Cruz has served as the junior senator from Texas since 2013 and was re-elected in 2018 when he beat Democrat Beto O'Rourke by nearly six points.

Republicans are hoping to capture the Senate in 2024, after failing to do so in the November 2022 midterm elections. To achieve this they must flip two seats, or just one if they also win the presidential election, which would give the GOP the vice president's tie-breaking vote.

Allred announced he is hoping to challenge Cruz with a video posted on social media, in which he said: "We don't have to be embarrassed by our senator. We can get a new one."

In 2018 Allred flipped Texas's 32nd congressional district, beating Republican incumbent Pete Sessions by almost seven points. He finished 2022 with a war chest of nearly $2 million, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Thomas Gift, the founding director of the Centre on US Politics at University College London, told Newsweek that Cruz could be in for a tough 2024 contest.

"Based on the 2018 results alone when Cruz just narrowly beat out challenger Beto O'Rouke, it's certainly not a foregone conclusion that Cruz has 2024 in the bag. A victory now may be more precarious given just how much Cruz has aligned himself with Trumpism, making him an even more polarizing figure," Gift said.

"Cruz still has to be considered the favorite, given name recognition, cash, incumbent status, and a major political machine behind him in the RNC (Republican National Committee) that wants to keep one of its most loyal foot soldiers in power. At the same time, his seat is clearly one to watch, with the odds of an upset looking nontrivial."

However, Gift cautioned that, despite some demographic change, Texas remains a Republican state.

"No one should kid themselves," he said. "Despite huge recent growth in major population centers like Austin, the Lone Star State is still solidly red, at least for now. But that doesn't mean Democrats can't win at the state level."

In a statement sent to Newsweek Cruz spokesperson Nick Maddux said: "Democrats have once again turned to a far-left radical to run for Senate. Not only does Colin Allred vote with Nancy Pelosi 100% of the time, but his voting record is completely out-of-touch with Texas. Allred wants men to compete in women's sports, isn't serious about addressing the crisis at the border, wants to take away law-abiding Texans' guns, and is soft on punishing murderers.

"Bottom line, Allred is too extreme for Texas. Thankfully, the Lone Star State has a tireless champion in Sen. Ted Cruz. For over a decade, Sen. Cruz has been leading the fight for jobs, freedom, and security in Texas. As Senator for Texas, Sen. Cruz will continue to do everything he can to bring more jobs to Texas, fight out-of-control government spending, and support the oil and gas industry from the attacks of Democrats like Joe Biden and Colin Allred."

Last month, MSNBC broadcast recordings of Cruz discussing how the 2020 presidential election result could be overturned with Maria Bartiromo of Fox News.

The Texas senator suggested setting up a "commission" to look into "credible evidence of fraud that undermines confidence in the electoral results in any given state."

Former President Donald Trump is continuing to insist the 2020 election was stolen from him, though this claim has been repeatedly dismissed in court and by legal experts.

Update 5/4/23, 12:20 p.m. ET: This story has been updated with a statement from Cruz spokesperson Nick Maddux.

Correction 5/5/23, 5:45 a.m. ET: This story has been corrected to note Senator Cruz secured re-election against Beto O'Rourke in 2018, not 2020 as was originally stated.