North Carolina's gubernatorial election between Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson and Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein is poised to be one of the closest races of the year, according to recent polls.
Although North Carolina has tilted Republican in recent presidential races, Democrats have had success in recent gubernatorial races, with Governor Roy Cooper leading them to victory in his 2020 reelection and seven of the last eight battles for the mansion going to the Democrats. Cooper, however, is unable to run for a third term in 2024 due to term limits.
Democrats hope to retain the position in the Tar Heel State, calling attention to Robinson's position on key issues like abortion and LGBTQ+ rights they believe could alienate moderate voters in November. Polls point to a close election, with both candidates holding leads in different recent surveys of North Carolina voters.
A new poll released this week found Robinson with a slight lead over Stein, though a large percentage of voters said they remained undecided.
Republican-leaning pollster North Star Opinion Research surveyed 600 likely voters from May 29-June 2, finding that 44 percent of respondents planned to back Robinson, while 42 percent said they intended to vote for Stein. Fourteen percent said they were unsure who they would vote for in November.
The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Stein's campaign manager Jeff Allen told Newsweek on Tuesday, "Each poll reiterates what we've known from the very beginning — this race is going to be close. That's why Josh is working hard to earn every single vote. This campaign will illustrate the clear choice North Carolinians have between a safer, stronger North Carolina with Josh Stein or Mark Robinson's job-killing vision of hate and division."
Newsweek reached out to the Robinson campaign for comment via email.
A High Point University Survey Research Center poll, which surveyed 804 registered voters from May 2-9, found Robinson leading 39-34. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
A Cygnal/Carolina Journal poll, conducted among 600 likely voters from May 4-5, found Stein and Robinson tied, each receiving 39 percent of the vote. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.99 percentage points.
Robinson has cast himself as a staunch conservative, appealing to right-wing voters who have aligned themselves with former President Donald Trump's policies. However, he has drawn scrutiny over remarks on cultural topics that have dominated political discourse in recent years.
For instance, Robinson, who is Black, has faced criticism for suggesting Black people owe reparations amid calls from progressives for descendants of slaves to receive pay, according to The Fayetteville Observer. He has also been criticized over his past comments on the LGBTQ+ community, including saying in 2021: "There's no reason anybody anywhere in America should be telling any child about transgenderism, homosexuality, any of that filth."
On Tuesday, Stein unveiled an advertisement highlighting Robinson's past remarks on abortion, including him saying "there is no compromise" on the issue and that it "makes no difference to me why or how that child ended up in that womb."
Meanwhile, Robinson on Monday criticized Stein on immigration, writing in a post to X that a vote for Stein is a "vote for amnesty for illegal immigrants and turning NC into a sanctuary state."
North Carolina is viewed as a competitive state, though Democrats have not won it at the presidential level since 2008. In 2020, the state backed Trump by just over one percentage point, giving Trump 49.9 percent of the vote and President Joe Biden 48.6 percent.
That same year, Cooper won reelection, winning 51.5 percent of the vote.
Update 6/4/24, 2:55 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Josh Stein's campaign.
Uncommon Knowledge
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Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Andrew Stanton is a Newsweek weekend reporter based in Maine. His role is reporting on U.S. politics and social issues. ... Read more
