Two-term Republican incumbent Ron Johnson has achieved a small competitive edge over Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, according to the latest polls on the Wisconsin Senate race.
The latest poll by FiveThirtyEight found that, as of September 30, Johnson was expected to receive 48.6 percent of the vote against Barnes' 46.7 percent.
While the slim lead is not enough for Johnson to be confident of victory, the poll shows an upsurge in support for the Republican, who between August 25 and September 10 was over three percentage points behind Barnes, according to FiveThirtyEight's polls. Between September 10 and September 20, the two candidates were even or had a 0.1 percentage point difference.
The Wisconsin Senate race is seen as one of the most competitive in November's midterm elections. The state is considered one that Democrats could easily flip, as Johnson, who is chasing a third term in office, is regarded as one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents in the Senate.
Other surveys reflect this latest change in the outlook of the state's Senate race. A Fox News survey of Wisconsin registered voters from September 29 puts Johnson ahead of Barnes by four percentage points, with 48 percent against the Democratic challenger's 44 percent.
A previous poll from between September 22 and 26 by Public Policy Polling, on the other hand, said Barnes and Johnson were still even at 47 percent.
The shift in polls might be connected to a recent series of crime-focused attack ads launched by the GOP against Barnes, which accuse the Democratic nominee and state's lieutenant governor of being a candidate who will reduce the number of police officers in Wisconsin in the face of rising violent crime in the state and who refused to pay property and income taxes (an accusation that fact-checkers have deemed false.)
Barnes has denied the accusations made in Johnson's ads, saying the Republican candidate had been "caught lying," and hit back with his own ad focusing on abortion rights.
In an ad released on October 3, Barnes reminds Wisconsin voters of Johnson's previous support for legislation banning abortion with no exceptions for victims of rape or incest. "He co-sponsored a bill that makes no exception for rape, incest, or the life of a woman. And Johnson said if women don't like it, they can move," he said, accurately.
As far as poll results are concerned, Johnson's attack strategy has proven more consequential. But despite the Republican incumbent's resurgence in the polls, the outcome of the November midterms still hangs in the balance.
"It is still possible for Barnes to unseat Johnson, but only if the campaign focus changes soon," Professor Barry Burden, director of the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, told Newsweek.
"Johnson and his allies have been hammering Barnes with negative ads that allege he is a radical who would let crime run rampant. Barnes has mostly been in a defensive posture rather than offering voters clear reasons to remove Johnson from office. As a result, Johnson has mostly avoided having to defend his record."
Newsweek has reached out to Barnes' and Johnson's press teams for comment.
On Friday, the two candidates will be facing each other in a debate that could be crucial for their electoral campaigns. If you want to follow the debate, it will be broadcast live from PBS studios in Milwaukee at 8 p.m. ET.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
Giulia Carbonaro is a Newsweek Reporter based in London, U.K. Her focus is on U.S. and European politics, global affairs ... Read more
