Kamala Harris Suffers Polling Blow Among Democratic Voters

More Democratic voters would prefer President Joe Biden to be the Democratic nominee for president over Vice President Kamala Harris, according to a new poll.

Biden has repeatedly insisted he will keep running for reelection after a disastrous debate performance magnified concerns about his age and ability to beat Donald Trump in November and serve another four years in office.

Should he change his mind amid the escalating pressure, Harris—the first woman to serve as vice president as well as the first Black woman and person of South Asian descent—is widely viewed as the top choice to replace him.

When asked, in a YouGov poll conducted about a week after the June 27 debate, who specifically between the president and the vice president they would prefer as the party's nominee, 47 percent of Democrats and independents who lean Democrat said Biden while 32 percent replied Harris. Twenty-one percent said they were not sure.

"The datapoint is consistent with the idea that Kamala Harris simply isn't going to win any popularity contests, among Democrats or voters at large," Thomas Gift, an associate professor of political science and director of the Centre on U.S. Politics at University College London, told Newsweek.

"It's important to recall she was one of the first Democratic candidates to flame out of the primaries when she ran for president in 2019. Harris' lack of appeal may be one reason why Biden may ultimately stay in the race. If she's his natural successor, Biden may be convinced that her odds of beating Trump are slim."

The survey was conducted between July 3 and 6 among 1,122 U.S. adults, including 538 Democrats and Independents who lean toward the Democratic Party. The margin of error was 4 percent.

Newsweek has contacted the Biden-Harris campaign for comment via email.

The poll found that almost half (47 percent) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents think Biden should definitely or probably step aside and allow another candidate to run against Trump in November, while 40 percent said he definitely or probably should not.

A majority (62 percent) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents who think Biden should step aside cited concerns about his age, health and cognitive function as the main reason for him to do so. About a quarter (27 percent) said the biggest reason was concern about his chances of beating Trump, while 7 percent said it was because they disagree with him on policy issues.

Two-thirds (66 percent) of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents said they would approve (strongly or somewhat) of Harris becoming the nominee if Biden steps down. Roughly the same proportion said they would approve of former first lady Michelle Obama as the nominee, although she has repeatedly said she would not run for president.

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders followed with about half of the same respondents approving of them as potential replacements.

The poll also found that most Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents (56 percent) do think Harris is at least as likely as Biden to beat Trump in November.

But 22 percent said she was more likely to win against Trump than Biden, while 47 percent thought Obama was more likely to defeat Trump.

The survey also found that more Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents think Harris is more competent, mentally fit and a better communicator than Biden. But fewer see her as more likeable, qualified and authentic than Biden.

"Many Democrats are just not ready to cast Biden aside. They like him, they believe he's experienced and they feel he's delivered on many of his top priorities," Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northeastern University, told Newsweek.

"They'd rather roll the dice with someone who has proven he can defeat Trump than with a candidate who has several liabilities. The way they see it, most candidates are flawed, and you just have to weigh Biden's disadvantages against Harris's (or others'). For them, Biden still remains ahead.

"For now, these voters still remain behind Biden, which creates an uphill battle for Harris... they still need to be convinced Biden is not the best shot against Trump. But if the situation changes or if new information emerges to suggest Biden's physical or mental health is compromised, these voters may ultimately conclude the chances of victory are better with an alternative."

Update 9/7/24, 11:06 a.m ET: This article has been updated with comment from Costas Panagopoulos.