Joe Biden is in Worst Democratic Polling Position in 24 Years

Joe Biden is in the worst polling position, on average, that any Democratic candidate has been in for more than two decades, analysis shows.

The last time a Republican candidate was ahead in early July general election polls was in 2000, when George Bush was ahead of Democratic Vice President Al Gore, according to CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten.

Early July polls show Democratic candidates ahead in the polls in every election cycle after that.

John Kerry was ahead in 2004, Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Biden in 2020.

But 2024's early July polls have Republican candidate Donald Trump ahead "in an aggregate of national polls" by three points, Enten has calculated.

The reporter, who specializes in statistics, was looking at these averages in response to Biden's claims that polls underestimated him in 2020.

In an interview with ABC News's George Stephanopoulos, Biden said: "I remember them telling me the same thing in 2020—I can't win, the polls show I can't win. Remember in 2020, 'the red wave' was coming. Before the vote, I said that's not going to happen, we're gonna win."

In polls during the Democratic primaries, Biden did not lead consistently, with candidates such as Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and even Vice President Kamala Harris, ahead in early surveys, especially in Iowa and New Hampshire. Like his Democratic predecessors, Biden has generally always been ahead in general election polls, including in 2020.

"There wasn't a single poll that met CNN standards for publication that ever had Donald Trump ahead in 2020, and now you have a (slew) of them and the average, of course, definitely has Donald Trump ahead," Enten said.

"You have to go all the way back to the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century to find a Republican ahead at this point.

"There are voters in the electorate that are dealing with a poll position they have never seen before, and that is a Republican leading in the national popular vote, at least according to the polls.

"If anything, the polls have underestimated Republicans during the Trump era, especially in the presidential races in 2016 and in 2020."

The U.S. President has come out fighting against the slew of backlash and calls to have him replaced following his poor performance against Donald Trump in the first presidential debate on June 27.

The question of whether Democrats are going to replace Biden as their candidate has been nonstop since the world watched him stumble over his words, jumble up his sentences and perform weakly in general. Biden's campaign said he had a cold on the night and several Democratic governors and members have thrown their support behind him.

On Monday, Biden wrote a letter to congressional Democrats, saying that "despite all the speculation in the press and elsewhere" he is firmly committed to staying in the race.

In a bid to reassure party members, he said: "I wouldn't be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump."

Then he went on to argue that it would be wrong to overhaul the Democratic nomination process which saw him receive "over 14 million votes, 87 (percent) of the votes cast across the entire nominating process."

"The question of how to move forward has been well aired for over a week now. And it's time for it to end. We have one job. And that is to beat Donald Trump," he added.

Newsweek has contacted Biden's campaign, via the press team's email address, for a response to Enten's analysis.