Nuclear War Update as New Doomsday Clock Prediction Revealed

The Doomsday Clock has been officially reset and will remain at 90 seconds to midnight.

The decision was made by the Bulletin's Science and Security Board (SASB) in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes nine Nobel laureates, and announced on Tuesday morning. The time of midnight is "apocalypse" imagery, according to the clock's creators, used to "convey threats to humanity and the planet."

Created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and in existence since 1947, the clock has become a global visual representation of the various potential calamities that can hinder both humanity and the world at large.

Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin, said during the virtual announcement, broadcast from Washington D.C., that the Russia-Ukraine war, the October 7 attack by Hamas in Israel and the potential for a broader regional war involving nuclear weapons states, environmental impacts including wildfires, floods and other natural disasters, threats of disruptive technologies and artificial intelligence (AI), and biological research in relation to pandemics and risks associated in creating future pandemics, have exemplified last year's concerns that "continue with unabated ferocity."

"The Doomsday Clock is about urgency not fear," Bronson told Newsweek following Tuesday's announcement. "The design is a metaphor that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making, and the discussion points the public to the underlying issues driving that threat and the solutions to combat them.

"That means that we move the clock to reflect the state of the world in hopes of influencing public perception to match that reality, rather than trying to reflect public perception of reality. Because it is symbol rather than an exact formula, we know that our decisions can be debated and we hope that further drives discussion around issues of existential threat."

Last January, following numerous months of the Russia-Ukraine war, the clock setting bucked conventionality and ushered in a new era of caution when it was set to 90 seconds to midnight—the "closest to global catastrophe it had ever been," as set by those on the SASB, composed of a select group of globally recognized leaders who focus specifically on nuclear threats, climate change and disruptive technologies.

Prior to 2023, the clock had sat at 100 seconds to midnight since 2020. The clock was set to 17 minutes to midnight—the farthest it has ever been set—in 1991 following the culmination of the Cold War and the signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty by the United States and Soviet Union.

Bronson said the clock remains an enduring symbol of some of the world's greatest and most complex challenges, many of which may not often be discussed with the fervor required to understand and deal with them in a proper manner.

The SASB has been "deeply worried about the deteriorating state of the world for many years now," she added.

Scientist Bill Nye, who participated in the announcement, said: "For decades, scientists have been warning us of the dangers facing humankind. We could be facing catastrophe unless we better manage the technologies we've created. It's time to act."

The clock is traditionally set by the board in November, though its final clock setting can be adjusted between then and the annual January unveiling.

Bronson told Newsweek in November that the clock garners both widespread attention and some scrutiny, adding that she believes most people view it as a pragmatic "wake-up call" compared to those who don't find much meaning in its message.

"It's really trying to get a blunt answer on if humanity is safer," she said late last year, referencing the clock's use in different political and cultural contexts.

Marcus Kreuzer, a political science professor at Villanova University who authored the book The Grammar of Time: A Toolkit for Comparative Historical Analysis, told Newsweek on Monday that he doesn't believe the clock is based on fear as that would imply some type of nefarious objective intended to intimidate people.

"The clock is so exquisite because it's a metaphorical clock, not a real clock," Kreuzer said. "The goal is to motivate people into action. I think it is very effective. Our ability to think in temporal time is very underdeveloped."

He cited time biases, including one so-called future bias in which humans tend to value the present far more than the future—akin to a version of instant gratification, or the reality that other things in people's lives often take precedence compared to larger issues in which they don't have any real direct control or impact.

That can include paying bills, purchasing groceries or rushing to pick children up from daycare on time, Kreuzer said.

Whether the clock is too daunting is relative and depends on the individual, he added, citing the example of an environmental scientist or activist being more prone to wanting to understand associated trends and risks.

"We can assume at best (the clock's overall significance is) a drop in the bucket," he said. "The Doomsday Clock will not change people's behavior in large numbers or significant ways, that much is clear.

"But given the magnitude of the challenge of evaluating the future, every little, small thing helps. I think the clock has that effect. It's a conversation starter."

In November, Moscow-trained physicist Pavel Podvig told Newsweek that he felt the clock should have been dialed back due to nuclear threats from Russia and other nations mostly being met with repudiation from the vast majority of the global community.

"I actually expected this," Podvig told Newsweek on Tuesday. "Of course, I would love to see them listening to my argument, but things are complicated. And I am certain that they discussed it."

Update 01/23/24, 1 p.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Pavel Podvig.

Update 01/23/24, 11:35 a.m. ET: This article was updated with comment from Rachel Bronson.