Did Republican Glenn Youngkin Just Torpedo His Own Election Strategy?

Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin has spent weeks encouraging Republicans to vote early in this year's statewide elections, but a recent incident could undermine the election system he's been trying to instill confidence in.

Last week, the governor's team admitted that nearly 3,400 voters were mistakenly removed from the state's rolls, more than 10 times higher than the administration's previous estimate of 270.

The voters who were "canceled in error" were convicted felons who had their voting rights restored but violated their probation. The state's system misclassified those violations as new felonies that disqualified those individuals from voting. Virginia is the only state where a person convicted of a felony automatically loses the right to vote.

Although state officials say all but "approximately 100" voters have been reinstated, questions remain about the election system, which Youngkin has promoted through his "Secure Your Vote Virginia" campaign.

Youngkin's press secretary, Macaulay Porter, told Newsweek, "As the governor has consistently stated, all eligible voters should be able to vote, and [he] has requested a full investigation by the inspector general into this matter. In these specific cases, these individuals who have previously been convicted of felonies have had their registration reinstated."

The Republican governor has gone on the offensive in the run-up to the November 7 elections, where every seat in the state Legislature will be up for reelection. He's encouraged GOP voters to cast their ballots early and urged his supporters to "stop sitting on the sidelines" and giving votes to Democrats. This year is also the first time that Virginia has a 45-day early-voting period and a no-excuse absentee mail ballot rule.

Those efforts appear to have helped Republicans make some inroads, early data shows. Democrats have a lower early-voting advantage, just shy of 60 percent, compared with last year's 63 percent, according to data from analytics firm L2. Those gains are especially noticeable in close races where Republicans have managed to receive nearly 43 percent and 39 percent of the early vote. Statewide, the GOP advantage is only 35 percent.

But the recent fumble by Youngkin's administration could make this year's Republican gains a one-off as voters question how secure Virginia's elections are.

Republican strategist Matt Klink told Newsweek that the recent incident will continue to generate attention "because who votes and who is eligible to vote are always key questions."

"The Youngkin administration's admitted error of removing and then re-adding certain felon voters, who tend to vote Democrat, will remain a controversy even after the election concludes," Klink said.

GOP consultant Alex Patton said that while the purge appears to be an honest error, he hopes those mistakes "stop chilling the vote."

"In most cases, 'targeted mistakes' like these tend to increase turnout on the side feeling injured," Patton told Newsweek. "But yes, all of these attacks on voter rolls in the name of voting security tend to flood the zone, and voters continue to lose faith in the system."

If that's the case, Youngkin's mistake could boost Democratic turnout in elections where he's pushing Republicans to win control of both chambers of the Legislature. A Republican sweep could help the governor move the increasingly purple state in a decidedly more conservative direction. Among his legislative priorities is a 15-week abortion ban. Youngkin, a popular incumbent with a 55 percent approval rating, is not up for reelection next week.

"Republican and independent enthusiasm for Governor Youngkin is high, and turnout should reflect that reality," Klink said. "The question is whether Democrats will rally because of it or if they will decide that their efforts are in vain, which may lead to a larger Youngkin victory."

Stephen Farnsworth, a professor of political science at the University of Mary Washington, told Newsweek that Youngkin's errors are unlikely to deter the governor's concerted effort to encourage early Republican voting.

He also said it could even boost Youngkin's campaign because the incident would be "all the more reason" for voters to cast their ballots early. That way, they would have time to correct their registration before Election Day should something go wrong.

But civil rights groups continue to have concerns about the purge's impact on Virginia's elections.

"The administration's error has already had a chilling effect not only on people who were mistakenly told they could not vote but on people in their communities with similar convictions who are unlikely to 'risk' voting in the face of uncertainty," Alexandra Werner-Winslow, public relations director for the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) of Virginia, told Newsweek.

Because early voting in Virginia began September 22, the ACLU of Virginia has said the Youngkin administration's error has already deprived affected voters of their opportunity to vote for over a month.

"The administration's claim that its error has been corrected is belied by the ongoing reports we are still receiving now from people who have yet to have their voting rights reinstated, as well as reports from others who are afraid they'll be punished if they ask for them back," the organization said in an October 25 statement.

It added, "No administration should get to pick and choose who gets to vote, and that includes this one."

Update 11/1/23, 1:28 p.m. ET: This story was updated with comments from Governor Glenn Youngkin's press secretary, Macaulay Porter.

Correction 11/2/23, 10:10 a.m. ET: An earlier version of this story incorrectly said Governor Glenn Youngkin is up for reelection next week.