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. 2024 Jul 2;24(1):1763.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-19104-6.

Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035

Ju-Li Lin  1   2 , Jian-Xian Lin  1   2   3 , Guang-Tan Lin  1   2 , Chang-Ming Huang  4   5   6 , Chao-Hui Zheng  1   2 , Jian-Wei Xie  1   2 , Jia-Bin Wang  1   2   3 , Jun Lu  1   2 , Qi-Yue Chen  1   2 , Ping Li  7   8   9
Affiliations

Global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035

Ju-Li Lin et al. BMC Public Health. .

Abstract

Objective: To study the historical global incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer and predicted mortality of gastric cancer by 2035.

Methods: Incidence data were retrieved from the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) volumes I-XI, and mortality data were obtained from the latest update of the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality database. We used join-point regression analysis to examine historical incidence and mortality trends and used the package NORDPRED in R to predict the number of deaths and mortality rates by 2035 by country and sex.

Results: More than 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer and 769,000 related deaths were reported in 2020. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in the incidence of gastric cancer from 2003 to 2012 among the male population, South Korea, Japan, Malta, Canada, Cyprus, and Switzerland showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the female population, Canada [AAPC, 1.2; (95%Cl, 0.5-2), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; and South Korea, Ecuador, Thailand, and Cyprus showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). AAPC in the mortality of gastric cancer from 2006 to 2015 among the male population, Thailand [3.5 (95%cl, 1.6-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Malta Island, New Zealand, Turkey, Switzerland, and Cyprus had an increasing trend (P > 0.05); among the male population aged 20-44, Thailand [AAPC, 3.4; (95%cl, 1.3-5.4), P < 0.05] showed an increasing trend; Norway, New Zealand, The Netherlands, Slovakia, France, Colombia, Lithuania, and the USA showed an increasing trend (P > 0.05). It is predicted that the mortality rate in Slovenia and France's female population will show an increasing trend by 2035. It is predicted that the absolute number of deaths in the Israeli male population and in Chile, France, and Canada female population will increase by 2035.

Conclusion: In the past decade, the incidence and mortality of gastric cancer have shown a decreasing trend; however, there are still some countries showing an increasing trend, especially among populations younger than 45 years. Although mortality in most countries is predicted to decline by 2035, the absolute number of deaths due to gastric cancer may further increase due to population growth.

Keywords: Global trends; Incidence; Mortality; Predict mortality; Stomach Neoplasms.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
A in 2020, there were 1,089,000 new cases of gastric cancer worldwide. B in 2020, there were 769,000 deaths of gastric cancer worldwide
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
A Map of incidence rate of gastric cancer. B Map of mortality rate of gastric cancer
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Incidence and mortality of gastric cancer by gender and age
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
A AAPC of the Incidence of Gastric Cancer in Individuals 0 to 85 Years or Older in male (*: P < 0.05). B AAPC of the Incidence of Gastric Cancer in Individuals 0 to 85 Years or Older in female (*: P < 0.05). C AAPC of the Mortality of Gastric Cancer in Individuals 0 to 85 Years or Older in male (*: P < 0.05). D AAPC of the Mortality of Gastric Cancer in Individuals 0 to 85 Years or Older in female (*: P < 0.05)
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
A Age standardized mortality rate per 100,000 in male. B Age standardized mortality rate per 100,000 in female
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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