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. 2021 Apr:298:113773.
doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2021.113773. Epub 2021 Jan 29.

Prospective prediction of PTSD and depressive symptoms during social unrest and COVID-19 using a brief online tool

Stephanie My Wong  1 , Christy Lm Hui  1 , Corine Sm Wong  1 , Y N Suen  1 , Sherry Kw Chan  2 , Edwin Hm Lee  1 , W C Chang  2 , Eric Yh Chen  3
Affiliations

Prospective prediction of PTSD and depressive symptoms during social unrest and COVID-19 using a brief online tool

Stephanie My Wong et al. Psychiatry Res. 2021 Apr.

Abstract

Large-scale protracted population stressors, such as social unrest and the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), are associated with increased symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression. Cost-effective mental health screening is prerequisite for timely intervention. We developed an online tool to identify prospective predictors of PTSD and depressive symptoms in the context of co-occurring social unrest and COVID-19 in Hong Kong. 150 participants completed baseline and follow-up assessments, with a median duration of 29 days. Three logistic regression models were constructed to assess its discriminative power in predicting PTSD and depressive symptoms at one month. Receiver-operating characteristic analysis was performed for each model to determine their optimal decision thresholds. Sensitivity and specificity of the models were 87.1% and 53.8% for probable PTSD, 77.5% and 63.3% for high-risk depressive symptoms, and 44.7% and 96.4% for no significant depressive symptoms. The models performed well in discriminating outcomes (AUCs range: 0.769-0.811). Probable PTSD was predicted by social unrest-related traumatic events, high rumination, and low resilience. Rumination and resilience also predicted high-risk and no significant depressive symptoms, with COVID-19-related events also predicting no significant depression risk. Accessible screening of probable mental health outcomes with good predictive capability may be important for early intervention opportunities.

Keywords: COVID-19; Depressive symptoms; Mass screening; PTSD symptoms; Risk assessment; Trauma exposure.

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Conflict of interest statement

EYHC has received speaker honoraria from Otsuka and DSK BioPharma, research funding from Otsuka, participated in paid advisory boards for Janssen and DSK BioPharma, and received funding to attend conferences from Otsuka and DSK BioPharma. All other authors declare no competing interests.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig. 1
Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves for probable PTSD (a); high-risk depressive symptoms (b); and no significant depressive symptoms (c).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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