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. 2014 Feb 13;9(2):e87436.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0087436. eCollection 2014.

Food reconstruction using isotopic transferred signals (FRUITS): a Bayesian model for diet reconstruction

Ricardo Fernandes  1 , Andrew R Millard  2 , Marek Brabec  3 , Marie-Josée Nadeau  1 , Pieter Grootes  4
Affiliations

Food reconstruction using isotopic transferred signals (FRUITS): a Bayesian model for diet reconstruction

Ricardo Fernandes et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Human and animal diet reconstruction studies that rely on tissue chemical signatures aim at providing estimates on the relative intake of potential food groups. However, several sources of uncertainty need to be considered when handling data. Bayesian mixing models provide a natural platform to handle diverse sources of uncertainty while allowing the user to contribute with prior expert information. The Bayesian mixing model FRUITS (Food Reconstruction Using Isotopic Transferred Signals) was developed for use in diet reconstruction studies. FRUITS incorporates the capability to account for dietary routing, that is, the contribution of different food fractions (e.g. macronutrients) towards a dietary proxy signal measured in the consumer. FRUITS also provides relatively straightforward means for the introduction of prior information on the relative dietary contributions of food groups or food fractions. This type of prior may originate, for instance, from physiological or metabolic studies. FRUITS performance was tested using simulated data and data from a published controlled animal feeding experiment. The feeding experiment data was selected to exemplify the application of the novel capabilities incorporated into FRUITS but also to illustrate some of the aspects that need to be considered when handling data within diet reconstruction studies. FRUITS accurately predicted dietary intakes, and more precise estimates were obtained for dietary scenarios in which expert prior information was included. FRUITS represents a useful tool to achieve accurate and precise food intake estimates in diet reconstruction studies within different scientific fields (e.g. ecology, forensics, archaeology, and dietary physiology).

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. Model output for simulated data (credible intervals on the left and probability distributions on the right).
Boxes represent a 68% credible interval (corresponding to the 16th and 84th percentiles) while the whiskers represent a 95% credible interval (corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles). The horizontal continuous line represents the estimated mean while the horizontal dashed line represents the estimated median (50th percentile). Star symbols represent the dietary intake amounts used to simulate data.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Model output using data from Hare et (credible intervals on the left and probability distributions on the right) for proposed dietary scenarios (a), (b), and (c).
Boxes represent a 68% credible interval (corresponding to the 16th and 84th percentiles) while the whiskers represent a 95% credible interval (corresponding to the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles). The horizontal dashed line represents the estimated mean while the horizontal discontinuous line represents the estimated median (50th percentile). Star symbols represent the actual dietary intake amounts of Corn and Gluten.
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Grants and funding

Research funding is provided by the German Research Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) within the frame of the Priority Program SPP 1400 and the Graduate School “Human Development in Landscapes” of the German Excellence Initiative. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.

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