Two systematic reviews were commissioned for this guideline and contributed to the GRADE (GRADE Working Group, 2016) tables and evidence for this question (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1a, ).
Under additional evidence not included in the GRADE tables, findings are presented of a modelling exercise that was also commissioned for the guideline and examined the effect of ART among mothers living with HIV on infant survival according to different background risk assessments of diarrhoeal mortality.
The values and preferences of stakeholders outlined in the decision-making tables were informed by a survey of national health authorities of the 22 priority countries1 for the Global Plan towards the elimination of new HIV infections among children by 2015 and keeping their mothers alive (UNAIDS, 2011) (see below and Annex 3).
HIV-free survival by duration of feeding practice and ART use
The systematic review by Chikhungu et al. (Annex 1a) addressed the question of HIV-free survival at 12, 18 or 24 months among infants born to women living with HIV who were receiving ART by infant feeding modality (exclusive breastfeeding, mixed feeding or replacement feeding) and duration of maternal ART. The systematic review did not identify any trial that reported directly comparative data from the population of interest: that is, mothers receiving ART who breastfed for 12 months versus 24 months.
The authors identified 18 cohort studies that provided other data to inform the Guideline Development Group: seven of these studies were nested within randomized controlled trials. Most studies were a follow-up of mothers receiving ART for preventing the mother-to-child transmission of HIV, with mothers advised to exclusively breastfeed for six months with rapid cessation thereafter, in accordance with the prevailing global recommendations. In 11 studies in which women initiated ART specifically for the purpose of preventing the mother-to-child transmission of HIV, ART would have been stopped at the cessation of breastfeeding around six months postpartum, in accordance with previous recommendations (WHO et al., 2006). Six studies offered lifelong ART regardless of CD4 count, and four studies supported breastfeeding for 12 months.
The majority of the cohort studies did not provide details regarding type of feeding: that is, exclusive breastfeeding or mixed feeding in the first six months. The investigators of 10 studies, of whom six responded, were requested to provide additional information. Five confirmed that exclusive breastfeeding was promoted, but feeding practices were inconsistently assessed as part of the study processes, such as self-reporting only. The investigators assumed that some mothers would have exclusively breastfed up to 5 or 6 completed months as recommended, whereas others would have introduced other fluids, milks or solids while breastfeeding: that is, mixed feeding. No study disaggregated transmission rates according to exclusive breastfeeding or mixed feeding where the mother was receiving lifelong ART.
Of the 18 cohort studies, only four had estimates of HIV-free survival by type of feeding; one of these also presented information on HIV transmission by feeding type. One further study compared cumulative transmission rates among children who were either formula-fed from birth or breastfed for less than three months or for three months or longer. Three studies compared transmission or death between breastfed and formula-fed (replacement-fed) infants, and one study provided HIV-free survival separately for children who were mixed-fed and those who stopped breastfeeding early. Eight studies provided HIV-free survival or rates of transmission and mortality from birth; other studies excluded deaths and HIV transmission in the first days or weeks of life and provided only postnatal rates.
Meta-analysis using a random effects model was conducted, but because of the high level of clinical and methodological heterogeneity observed in the data set, the review authors caution about interpreting these results. The pooled estimates of HIV-free survival at 12 and 18 months were marginally higher for infants whose mothers were receiving lifelong ART than for infants whose mothers were receiving ART until six months postnatally only. The pooled estimates for HIV-free survival at 12 months were 89.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 86.4–93.1%) for infants whose mothers were receiving ART for six months postnatally (six studies, n = 2366) (Alvarez-Uria et al., 2012; Jamieson et al., 2012; Kilewo et al., 2009; Marazzi et al., 2009; Thistle et al., 2011; Thomas et al., 2011) and 91.8% (95% CI: 87.7–95.9%) for infants whose mothers were receiving lifelong ART (three studies, n = 898) (Cohan et al., 2015; Thakwalakwa et al., 2014; Tonwe-Gold et al., 2007). Estimates of HIV-free survival at 18 months were 89.0% (95% CI: 83.9–94.2%) for infants whose mothers were receiving ART to six months postnatally (five studies, n = 1876) (Cournil et al., 2015; Fowler et al., 2014; Homsy et al., 2010; Kilewo et al., 2009; Thomas et al., 2011) and 96.1% (95% CI: 93.0–99.2%) for infants with mothers receiving lifelong ART (three studies, n = 1271) (Ngoma et al., 2015; Okafor et al., 2014; Sagay et al., 2015) (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1a, ).
HIV-free survival could not be estimated at 24 months because insufficient data were available for women receiving lifelong ART; the pooled estimate for 24-month HIV-free survival for infants whose mothers were receiving ART until six months postnatally (two studies) (Shapiro et al., 2013; Thomas et al., 2011) was 89.2% (95% CI: 79.9–98.5%). In one additional study, based on a mixed group of infants with respect to the mother's ART status (some were receiving ART up to six months postnatally and others were receiving lifelong ART), estimated HIV-free survival at 24 months was 85.8% (95% CI: 81.4–90.1%) (Giuliano et al., 2013).
Data from the individual studies are difficult to interpret due to heterogeneity and wide confidence intervals (especially in the studies with a shorter duration of ART). In general, HIV-free survival estimates were equivalent or higher for the infants of mothers receiving lifelong ART than for infants of mothers receiving ART for a limited period up to six months postnatal.
Among infants whose mothers were receiving ART for up to six months, HIV-free survival:
- –
at 12 months ranged from 85.0% (95% CI: 74.6–91.7%) to 96.0% (95% CI: 91.0–98.0%);
- –
at 18 months ranged from 81.6% (95% CI: 73.4–87.7%) to 95.2% (95% CI: 93.2–97.3%).
Among infants whose mothers were receiving lifelong ART, HIV-free survival:
- –
at 12 months ranged from 88.8% (95% CI: 82.6–95.0%) to 95.0% (95% CI: 92.0–97.0%);
- –
at 18 months ranged from 87.2% (95% CI: 79.2–92.5%) to 97.8% (95% CI: 94.6–99.1%).
However, the range of individual study estimates and confidence intervals cannot be directly compared, since not all the included studies reported outcomes at both 12 and 18 months. Overall, the Guideline Development Group agreed that a longer duration of ART for the mother is associated with greater HIV-free survival for the young child.
Two studies reported 24-month HIV-free survival among infants whose mothers were receiving ART up to six months postnatally at 84.3% (95% CI: 80.6–87.3%) (Thomas et al., 2011) and 93.8% (95% CI: 92.9–96.5%) (Shapiro et al., 2013) respectively. In a third study, 24-month HIV-free survival was estimated to be 85.8% (95% CI: 81.4–90.1%) (Giuliano et al., 2013) in a mixed population of children whose mothers were either receiving lifelong ART because of low CD4 count or receiving ART up to six months.
Four studies provided estimates of HIV-free survival by feeding modality; three reported higher HIV-free survival among breastfed infants than formula-fed infants. HIV-free survival among breastfed infants ranged from 82% (95% CI: 73.4–87.7%) [median weaning: five months] to 96% (95% CI: 91–98%) and among formula-fed infants from 67% (95% CI: 35.5–87.9%) to 97.6% (95% CI: 93.0–98.2%).
All studies were graded as low or very low quality because they were observational in design and downgraded for indirectness. The authors urged caution in quoting the pooled estimates because of heterogeneity (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1a, ).
HIV transmission by duration of feeding practice and ART use
A second systematic review (Chikhungu et al., Annex 1b) summarized HIV transmission rates at six, nine and 12 months among infants born to women who were receiving ART by infant feeding modality in the first six months of life (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1b, ).
Eleven studies were identified for analysis; four were cohorts nested in randomized controlled trials. In all studies, mothers started ART before or during pregnancy and continued until at least six months postnatally, in accordance with the WHO recommendations at the time. Eight of the 11 studies followed the recommendation of using ART for preventing the mother-to-child transmission of HIV during pregnancy until cessation of breastfeeding at about six months postnatally; three studies provided lifelong ART for all women, and one study provided lifelong ART for women eligible for treatment in accordance with WHO guidelines only. In most studies, mothers were advised to offer exclusive breastfeeding to the child, with rapid weaning after six months; two studies recommended continuing breastfeeding until 12 months. No study provided estimates of transmission rate according to type of feeding - that is, exclusive versus mixed feeding - although two studies reported the feeding practices of infants found to be infected.
Overall HIV transmission at age six months
Six studies reported overall (including peripartum and postpartum) transmission at six months. In the three studies in which pregnant women received ART early from 15 weeks gestation, overall transmission rates were 0.5% (95% CI: 0.2–1.2%), 1.4% (95% CI: 0.5–3.9%) and 1.9% (95% CI: 0.9–4.1%). When pregnant women initiated ART after 30 weeks of gestation, overall transmission rates were 5.0% (95% CI: 3.4–7.4%), 5.0% (95% CI: 2.9–7.1%) and 7.9% (95% CI: 6.2–9.9%). The pooled estimated rate of overall transmission by age six months was 3.5% (95% CI: 1.15–5.93), with substantial heterogeneity (I2 = 94.0%) (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1b,).
Postnatal transmission between 4–6 weeks and six months
Six studies provided estimates of postnatal transmission, excluding peripartum infections diagnosed before 4–6 weeks of age. Among mothers who started ART at the first antenatal visit, estimated postnatal transmission rates ranged from 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0–1.4%) to 3.1% (95% CI: 1.2–7.8%). Among mothers starting ART later in pregnancy, postnatal transmission rates varied from 0.8% (95% CI: 0.3–2.4%) to 2.7% (95% CI: 1.8–4.1%). The pooled postnatal transmission rate by six months of age was 1.08% (95% CI: 0.32–1.85%), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 66.4%) (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1b, ).
In addition, one study reported postnatal HIV transmission rates between 3 and 28 weeks by maternal ART exposure: that is, maternal ART, no maternal ART but infants received daily nevirapine and a placebo group: 3.0% (95% CI: 1.7–4.1%), 2.0% (95% CI: 0.8–2.6%) and 5% (95% CI: 3.8–7.4%), respectively.
Overall transmission rates at 12 months
Seven studies provided information on transmission at 12 months, of which five reported overall transmission (including peripartum and postpartum). The pooled estimate for the overall rate at 12 months was 4.2% (95% CI: 3.0–5.5%), with I2 = 39.9%, indicating moderate heterogeneity (GRADE evidence profile, Annex 1b, ).
Postnatal transmission rates at 12 months
The rates from two studies reporting postnatal transmission between 4–6 weeks and 12 months of age were 1.7% (95% CI: 0.3–4.1%) and 4.0% (95% CI: 3.0–6.0%) with a pooled estimate of 3.0% (95% CI: 0.7–5.2%), with high heterogeneity (I2 = 71.2%).
Only one study estimated the rate of transmission at 18 months, among infants of mothers on lifelong ART, with a rate of 4.1% (95% CI: 2.2–7.6%).
All studies were rated as having very low quality because of the observational design, indirectness, inconsistency and/or risk of bias.
Although there was substantial statistical heterogeneity between studies in each of the pooled estimates, and the authors (Chikhungu et al.) advised caution when using the absolute pooled estimates, this systematic review provides evidence of reduced postnatal HIV transmission risk under the cover of maternal ART.