As the first couple of weeks of the 2024 hurricane season continue to trend quiet, with no development expected in the near term, it’s not a pace that’s likely to sustain.
Instead of the tropics, you’re likely aware of the abundant rainfall we’re forecasting over the next few days, with rain totals reaching high enough to snap the current drought. That’s the weather element to watch this week as we coast through a few more days without tropical activity to monitor.
Last week I wrote about the absence of pre-season storms in 2022, 2023 and 2024. While that has no relationship to the type of season that’s ahead, it has delayed our awareness of the hurricane season itself.
And now, eleven days into the season with no activity on the map, one may speculate when the cards will fall and the season will unravel.
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It was 2014 that the first named storm of the year held off until July 1st. We should be so lucky! I couldn’t tell you without looking what that season was like.
Well, I just looked.
It was an interesting season. Eight named storms, 6 hurricanes with one U.S. landfall. The takeaway? The “A” storm made landfall in North Carolina. It was Authur, a category 2 hurricane.
Hurricane Season
The NBC 6 First Alert Weather team guides you through hurricane season
Whether a storm forms on July 1st or August 1st - it’s inevitable - the season will (eventually) begin.
Come to think of it, there was an August “A” storm that formed in 1992. It was the ultimate reminder that our number can be called in any season, at any time… even late.
By the books, the progress of the average Atlantic hurricane season (1991-2020) would produce the first named storm around June 20th, the second around July 17th.
Later this morning, by 11 a.m. EDT, Colorado State will update their seasonal forecast. You may recall, in early April, they set the tone for the 2024 season with a call for 23 named storms.
While I can’t predict what they’ll do later today, I can’t imagine it wavering much. The stage is already set. It’s just a matter of time.
This morning, I wonder if we’ll be clamoring for a “week off” from hearing, or reading, about tropical activity a little later in the season?
Don’t let the season’s forecast for a significant number of storms fade out in the weeks when there’s no activity. That can change in a hurry and it’s important to keep an eye out.
But with the deck stacked as it is, we know it won’t be much longer before things begin to stir.
Until then, enjoy the quiet.
