Extended Data Fig. 9: CO2e emissions of poverty alleviation under different assumptions.

a, by target poverty rate in 2050 using the $2.15 line. Results for very low target poverty rates become increasing sensitive to the situation of the poorest households, whose consumption is the hardest to capture and measure and can be linked to idiosyncratic shocks. With the 0% target rate, the results are completely dependent on the consumption of the poorest households in the household survey, making results unreliable. b, by target year of reaching 3% using the $2.15 line. The orange line shows the path if all countries reach the GDP per capita needed to end extreme poverty in 2023 and then maintain that level onwards to 2050. All the intermediate points on this path are equivalent to the greenhouse gases needed if all countries end extreme poverty by that year. The estimates are increasing over time due to population growth in poor countries. Every year there are more and more people to lift out or maintain out of poverty. This population effect dominates the effect from countries every year being more energy efficient and less carbon intensive. c, if accounting for the impact of economic growth on fertility. For the countries not projected to grow sufficiently to end extreme poverty by 2050, and for which the poverty-alleviation scenario mechanically adds growth such that the poverty reduction target is precisely met by 2050, this added economic growth could imply that fertility would fall faster than baseline population projections. Here the decline in population growth associated with this mechanical increase in GDP/capita is estimated, and the population counts are adjusted downwards accordingly.

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