England's coronavirus rate has dramatically dropped and is now estimated to be between 0.8 and 1.1.

The estimated COVID-19 reproduction "R" number in England has dropped sharply and could be below one, the UK Health Security Agency said today.

It implies cases might no longer be growing exponentially as they fall away from a peak hit in mid-July.

The estimated R value range was 0.8 to 1.1, compared to 1.1 to 1.4 last week.

That means that for every 10 people infected, they will on average infect between 8 and 11 other people.

The estimated daily growth rate range was -3% to +1%, compared to estimated growth of between +2% to +5% each day reported last week.

Coronavirus R rate has fallen below one (
Image:
Alamy Stock Photo)

The R number in all regions of England is:

  • East of England – 0.9 - 1.2 (previously 1.3 to 1.5)

  • London – 0.9 - 1.2 (previously 1.2 to 1.4)

  • Midlands – 0.8 - 1.1 (previously 1.2 to 1.4)

  • North East and Yorkshire – 0.7 - 1.0 (previously 1.2 to 1.5)

  • North West – 0.7 - 1.0 (previously 1.0 to 1.2)

  • South East – 0.9 - 1.2 (previously 1.2 to 1.5)

  • South West – 0.8 - 1.2 (previously 1.3 to 1.5)

The regional breakdown

Estimates for R and growth rates are shown as a range, and the true values are likely to lie within this range.

They represent the transmission of coronavirus 2 to 3 weeks ago, due to the time delay between someone being infected, developing symptoms, and needing healthcare.

Government figures correct as of Friday, July 29 reveal that, 97 per cent of regions across England saw a fall in infections.

Just nine of the 315 areas saw a rise, the numbers from Public Health England show.

Lincoln has the highest rate across the country, with 649 new cases in the seven days to July 29.

That is the the equivalent of 653.6 per 100,000 people and is up from 356.5 in the seven days to July 22.

And the five areas with the biggest week-on-week rises were:

  • Lincoln (up from 356.5 to 653.6)
  • Exeter (396.5 to 504.5)
  • Somerset West & Taunton (175.4 to 243.7)
  • North Kesteven (277.1 to 343.8)
  • Breckland (166.5 to 207.2)

The rate is expressed as the number of new cases per 100,000 people.

Here is the list in full.

From left to right: name of local authority; rate of new cases in the seven days to July 29; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to July 29; rate of new cases in the seven days to July 22; number (in brackets) of new cases recorded in the seven days to July 22.

Lincoln, 653.6, (649), 356.5, (354)
Middlesbrough, 573.1, (808), 1044.1, (1472)
Blackpool, 516.3, (720), 768.0, (1071)
Exeter, 504.5, (663), 396.5, (521)
Hull, 501.6, (1303), 604.4, (1570)
Bournemouth Christchurch and Poole, 499.1, (1973), 511.7, (2023)
Stockton-on-Tees, 496.6, (980), 946.6, (1868)
Redcar and Cleveland, 471.7, (647), 1128.7, (1548)
North East Lincolnshire, 470.7, (751), 804.7, (1284)
Plymouth, 454.4, (1191), 709.7, (1860)
Sheffield, 450.7, (2636), 501.0, (2930)
Mansfield, 436.4, (477), 462.9, (506)
Salford, 429.6, (1112), 601.2, (1556)
Bristol, 421.9, (1955), 673.5, (3121)
Rushcliffe, 419.5, (500), 562.2, (670)
Doncaster, 408.5, (1274), 749.0, (2336)
Southampton, 407.5, (1029), 523.5, (1322)
Torbay, 396.3, (540), 590.0, (804)
South Tyneside, 396.1, (598), 790.2, (1193)
Darlington, 392.3, (419), 733.1, (783)
Calderdale, 391.6, (828), 489.0, (1034)
Knowsley, 391.1, (590), 446.8, (674)
Newark and Sherwood, 388.0, (475), 581.6, (712)
Nottingham, 385.7, (1284), 512.5, (1706)
Norwich, 382.7, (538), 351.4, (494)
Leeds, 377.4, (2993), 528.3, (4190)
North Tyneside, 375.6, (781), 555.5, (1155)
Gedling, 374.9, (442), 547.1, (645)
Wakefield, 372.1, (1296), 623.3, (2171)
Rotherham, 371.1, (985), 527.5, (1400)
Brighton and Hove, 364.7, (1061), 457.9, (1332)
Newcastle upon Tyne, 361.6, (1095), 613.9, (1859)
Sunderland, 360.5, (1001), 755.8, (2099)
Bassetlaw, 359.3, (422), 697.3, (819)
St. Helens, 358.8, (648), 490.6, (886)
Hartlepool, 358.7, (336), 855.2, (801)
Gateshead, 356.8, (721), 620.1, (1253)
Liverpool, 356.4, (1775), 431.7, (2150)
South Gloucestershire, 356.4, (1016), 726.1, (2070)
Hammersmith and Fulham, 355.4, (658), 491.0, (909)
Fylde, 355.3, (287), 594.2, (480)
Wyre, 355.1, (398), 615.6, (690)
Corby, 353.1, (255), 432.0, (312)
Manchester, 352.9, (1951), 480.2, (2655)
Kettering, 350.8, (357), 452.0, (460)
Oldham, 350.5, (831), 627.6, (1488)
Solihull, 350.3, (758), 666.9, (1443)
Burnley, 349.8, (311), 548.8, (488)
Barnsley, 345.5, (853), 612.1, (1511)
North Kesteven, 343.8, (402), 277.1, (324)
Leicester, 339.6, (1203), 397.8, (1409)
West Lancashire, 336.8, (385), 471.5, (539)
East Hertfordshire, 335.9, (503), 460.1, (689)
Bolsover, 335.1, (270), 455.5, (367)
Warrington, 334.7, (703), 518.1, (1088)
Bradford, 333.8, (1802), 551.5, (2977)
Blaby, 332.9, (338), 457.0, (464)
Lambeth, 327.9, (1069), 526.3, (1716)
Ashfield, 326.0, (417), 512.0, (655)
Sandwell, 323.3, (1062), 483.5, (1588)
Gloucester, 322.9, (417), 425.9, (550)
Copeland, 322.7, (220), 797.9, (544)
Medway, 322.4, (898), 426.1, (1187)
Bath and North East Somerset, 322.3, (623), 515.3, (996)
Wandsworth, 321.8, (1061), 555.7, (1832)
East Riding of Yorkshire, 321.2, (1096), 545.2, (1860)
Eastleigh, 320.4, (428), 402.7, (538)
Preston, 320.0, (458), 505.8, (724)
North East Derbyshire, 318.3, (323), 566.7, (575)
Three Rivers, 318.2, (297), 563.6, (526)
County Durham, 317.9, (1685), 597.1, (3165)
Rochdale, 316.5, (704), 557.5, (1240)
Birmingham, 314.9, (3596), 472.8, (5398)
North Warwickshire, 312.6, (204), 540.9, (353)
Swindon, 311.4, (692), 435.7, (968)
Islington, 310.6, (753), 458.2, (1111)
Brent, 310.5, (1024), 388.8, (1282)
Sefton, 309.7, (856), 398.7, (1102)
Harlow, 309.0, (269), 465.2, (405)
Wigan, 308.5, (1014), 606.7, (1994)
Epping Forest, 308.3, (406), 472.3, (622)
Tameside, 308.2, (698), 570.4, (1292)
Wirral, 307.4, (996), 402.1, (1303)
Southwark, 307.1, (979), 484.3, (1544)
Oxford, 307.0, (468), 359.4, (548)
Dartford, 306.4, (345), 529.3, (596)
Ealing, 306.3, (1047), 393.8, (1346)
Cheltenham, 304.4, (354), 313.0, (364)
Portsmouth, 302.9, (651), 485.8, (1044)
Cambridge, 302.9, (378), 337.3, (421)
Kirklees, 301.1, (1324), 415.9, (1829)
Walsall, 300.5, (858), 424.9, (1213)
Bromsgrove, 299.4, (299), 531.6, (531)
Waltham Forest, 298.9, (828), 395.0, (1094)
Northampton, 297.8, (669), 418.9, (941)
West Lindsey, 295.8, (283), 289.5, (277)
Bedford, 295.5, (512), 393.0, (681)
Trafford, 294.5, (699), 456.3, (1083)
Thurrock, 293.7, (512), 385.5, (672)
North Lincolnshire, 293.1, (505), 376.7, (649)
Torridge, 293.0, (200), 300.3, (205)
Hertsmere, 292.6, (307), 499.4, (524)
Stockport, 291.7, (856), 514.6, (1510)
Bury, 291.6, (557), 467.6, (893)
Scarborough, 291.5, (317), 504.8, (549)
North West Leicestershire, 291.5, (302), 494.2, (512)
Harrow, 291.0, (731), 393.4, (988)
Broxbourne, 290.9, (283), 505.8, (492)
Wolverhampton, 290.9, (766), 428.3, (1128)
Nuneaton and Bedworth, 289.5, (376), 587.5, (763)
Dudley, 288.9, (929), 502.2, (1615)
Northumberland, 288.4, (930), 502.4, (1620)
Lewisham, 288.4, (882), 406.1, (1242)
East Devon, 287.8, (421), 356.2, (521)
Haringey, 287.7, (773), 415.0, (1115)
Coventry, 287.2, (1067), 505.8, (1879)
Bexley, 286.4, (711), 480.1, (1192)
Tower Hamlets, 286.1, (929), 407.1, (1322)
Peterborough, 284.8, (576), 314.0, (635)
Great Yarmouth, 283.9, (282), 569.8, (566)
Central Bedfordshire, 283.7, (819), 478.8, (1382)
Charnwood, 283.6, (527), 415.9, (773)
Barrow-in-Furness, 283.4, (190), 489.2, (328)
Greenwich, 281.7, (811), 388.3, (1118)
Hackney and City of London, 280.9, (817), 441.5, (1284)
Chorley, 279.2, (330), 555.8, (657)
Rutland, 278.0, (111), 310.6, (124)
Milton Keynes, 278.0, (749), 377.4, (1017)
Barnet, 277.6, (1099), 429.4, (1700)
Richmondshire, 277.3, (149), 435.5, (234)
Teignbridge, 277.3, (372), 378.6, (508)
Spelthorne, 276.4, (276), 399.6, (399)
Broxtowe, 276.2, (315), 504.2, (575)
Hambleton, 276.2, (253), 555.7, (509)
Hounslow, 275.9, (749), 343.6, (933)
South Staffordshire, 275.7, (310), 447.4, (503)
Havering, 275.1, (714), 394.1, (1023)
Halton, 273.5, (354), 404.9, (524)
Watford, 273.4, (264), 501.2, (484)
Tonbridge and Malling, 272.4, (360), 485.8, (642)
Richmond upon Thames, 271.7, (538), 420.2, (832)
Luton, 270.8, (577), 346.4, (738)
Chesterfield, 270.7, (284), 510.0, (535)
Colchester, 270.7, (527), 429.9, (837)
Adur, 270.6, (174), 440.1, (283)
Wellingborough, 269.7, (215), 353.8, (282)
South Norfolk, 269.7, (380), 294.6, (415)
Rugby, 269.0, (293), 459.9, (501)
Cheshire West and Chester, 268.7, (922), 392.9, (1348)
Gravesham, 268.4, (287), 408.6, (437)
Chichester, 268.3, (325), 396.3, (480)
Southend-on-Sea, 268.1, (491), 492.0, (901)
Wyre Forest, 266.6, (270), 423.5, (429)
South Ribble, 265.4, (294), 594.8, (659)
Dorset, 265.3, (1004), 283.2, (1072)
Newham, 265.1, (936), 302.4, (1068)
Welwyn Hatfield, 264.9, (326), 452.7, (557)
Worcester, 263.8, (267), 543.4, (550)
North Devon, 263.5, (256), 490.0, (476)
Croydon, 263.5, (1019), 391.8, (1515)
Erewash, 263.5, (304), 502.7, (580)
Westminster, 262.9, (687), 359.7, (940)
Cheshire East, 262.7, (1009), 407.1, (1564)
Wiltshire, 262.0, (1310), 370.0, (1850)
Stoke-on-Trent, 261.7, (671), 446.6, (1145)
Tamworth, 260.8, (200), 482.4, (370)
Redditch, 260.4, (222), 452.7, (386)
East Northamptonshire, 260.2, (246), 422.1, (399)
Merton, 260.0, (537), 370.4, (765)
Bromley, 260.0, (864), 451.0, (1499)
Harrogate, 259.9, (418), 441.5, (710)
Uttlesford, 259.6, (237), 442.6, (404)
Worthing, 259.6, (287), 377.1, (417)
North Somerset, 259.5, (558), 465.9, (1002)
Hillingdon, 259.4, (796), 385.2, (1182)
Selby, 259.3, (235), 490.0, (444)
Chelmsford, 259.0, (462), 529.2, (944)
Hinckley and Bosworth, 259.0, (293), 406.6, (460)
Stevenage, 258.4, (227), 388.2, (341)
Sevenoaks, 258.4, (312), 501.0, (605)
Arun, 258.2, (415), 493.9, (794)
Cornwall and Isles of Scilly, 257.6, (1473), 344.3, (1969)
East Lindsey, 256.8, (364), 349.3, (495)
South Northamptonshire, 256.1, (242), 444.5, (420)
Boston, 255.1, (179), 389.0, (273)
Fareham, 254.7, (296), 335.5, (390)
Derbyshire Dales, 254.4, (184), 410.6, (297)
Rochford, 254.1, (222), 505.9, (442)
Broadland, 253.9, (332), 302.8, (396)
Stroud, 253.4, (304), 404.3, (485)
Wychavon, 252.6, (327), 326.0, (422)
Crawley, 251.8, (283), 540.0, (607)
High Peak, 251.4, (233), 358.3, (332)
Kensington and Chelsea, 251.1, (392), 376.6, (588)
Redbridge, 250.6, (765), 285.7, (872)
Tunbridge Wells, 250.2, (297), 357.1, (424)
South Bucks, 249.8, (175), 402.6, (282)
Reading, 249.7, (404), 365.9, (592)
Harborough, 249.4, (234), 431.7, (405)
Epsom and Ewell, 249.3, (201), 403.1, (325)
Brentwood, 249.3, (192), 475.2, (366)
Craven, 246.8, (141), 561.8, (321)
Bracknell Forest, 246.4, (302), 458.6, (562)
Castle Point, 245.6, (222), 535.5, (484)
Oadby and Wigston, 245.5, (140), 377.1, (215)
York, 245.5, (517), 355.6, (749)
Wycombe, 245.1, (428), 417.4, (729)
Somerset West and Taunton, 243.7, (378), 175.4, (272)
Lancaster, 242.4, (354), 495.8, (724)
Mid Sussex, 242.3, (366), 367.5, (555)
Cannock Chase, 242.2, (244), 473.4, (477)
Wokingham, 241.9, (414), 369.3, (632)
Hyndburn, 241.8, (196), 413.4, (335)
Staffordshire Moorlands, 241.8, (238), 460.2, (453)
Elmbridge, 241.2, (330), 354.5, (485)
Gosport, 240.5, (204), 411.4, (349)
Test Valley, 240.2, (303), 437.5, (552)
Maidstone, 239.2, (411), 472.0, (811)
Telford and Wrekin, 238.5, (429), 483.7, (870)
Mid Devon, 238.1, (196), 292.8, (241)
Sutton, 237.9, (491), 405.1, (836)
Camden, 237.4, (641), 398.1, (1075)
East Staffordshire, 237.2, (284), 388.3, (465)
Winchester, 237.1, (296), 351.6, (439)
Kingston upon Thames, 236.0, (419), 346.5, (615)
South Hams, 235.6, (205), 328.7, (286)
Pendle, 235.6, (217), 426.7, (393)
Tewkesbury, 234.7, (223), 261.0, (248)
St Albans, 234.4, (348), 466.8, (693)
Barking and Dagenham, 234.4, (499), 304.4, (648)
Derby, 232.8, (599), 358.7, (923)
Rossendale, 232.2, (166), 454.7, (325)
Tandridge, 231.5, (204), 368.8, (325)
Bolton, 231.3, (665), 430.9, (1239)
Dacorum, 230.7, (357), 454.9, (704)
Havant, 230.5, (291), 343.1, (433)
Reigate and Banstead, 229.9, (342), 418.2, (622)
Hastings, 229.9, (213), 338.9, (314)
Lichfield, 228.1, (239), 431.5, (452)
Canterbury, 227.9, (377), 220.1, (364)
South Kesteven, 226.8, (323), 271.7, (387)
New Forest, 226.0, (407), 329.3, (593)
Huntingdonshire, 225.9, (402), 332.7, (592)
Windsor and Maidenhead, 225.9, (342), 357.3, (541)
Daventry, 225.7, (194), 329.3, (283)
Hart, 225.6, (219), 418.2, (406)
South Derbyshire, 224.7, (241), 336.6, (361)
Warwick, 223.3, (321), 473.0, (680)
Newcastle-under-Lyme, 223.3, (289), 455.0, (589)
South Cambridgeshire, 221.3, (352), 285.4, (454)
North Hertfordshire, 220.9, (295), 401.3, (536)
Amber Valley, 220.8, (283), 476.0, (610)
Ipswich, 220.6, (302), 281.9, (386)
Mole Valley, 220.1, (192), 348.4, (304)
Allerdale, 218.9, (214), 609.7, (596)
Slough, 216.7, (324), 277.5, (415)
Chiltern, 215.8, (207), 462.9, (444)
Tendring, 214.9, (315), 446.9, (655)
Basildon, 214.2, (401), 487.2, (912)
Maldon, 212.5, (138), 446.7, (290)
West Oxfordshire, 212.4, (235), 319.0, (353)
Braintree, 212.3, (324), 380.1, (580)
Enfield, 210.3, (702), 317.6, (1060)
Stratford-on-Avon, 209.8, (273), 333.6, (434)
Breckland, 207.2, (290), 166.5, (233)
West Berkshire, 206.4, (327), 335.8, (532)
Sedgemoor, 206.2, (254), 285.8, (352)
Stafford, 206.1, (283), 386.1, (530)
Lewes, 205.3, (212), 273.1, (282)
North Norfolk, 205.1, (215), 230.8, (242)
Cherwell, 202.0, (304), 345.5, (520)
Basingstoke and Deane, 200.5, (354), 459.3, (811)
East Suffolk, 200.4, (500), 229.7, (573)
Ashford, 198.4, (258), 304.5, (396)
Runnymede, 197.9, (177), 335.5, (300)
Rushmoor, 197.7, (187), 285.4, (270)
Horsham, 197.5, (284), 299.7, (431)
Babergh, 196.7, (181), 339.0, (312)
Wealden, 195.7, (316), 307.8, (497)
Dover, 193.9, (229), 239.6, (283)
Ribble Valley, 193.8, (118), 374.5, (228)
Mid Suffolk, 193.5, (201), 268.5, (279)
Melton, 193.3, (99), 406.2, (208)
Swale, 191.9, (288), 371.8, (558)
Isle of Wight, 191.9, (272), 252.5, (358)
Mendip, 191.2, (221), 369.4, (427)
Guildford, 189.9, (283), 312.8, (466)
Blackburn with Darwen, 189.7, (284), 365.4, (547)
East Cambridgeshire, 189.2, (170), 241.5, (217)
Thanet, 187.4, (266), 182.5, (259)
Vale of White Horse, 186.8, (254), 315.4, (429)
Woking, 186.5, (188), 361.1, (364)
South Lakeland, 185.6, (195), 398.7, (419)
South Somerset, 184.7, (311), 352.8, (594)
Aylesbury Vale, 184.5, (368), 310.9, (620)
Waverley, 184.4, (233), 285.8, (361)
Carlisle, 182.2, (198), 510.7, (555)
East Hampshire, 181.5, (222), 274.7, (336)
Cotswold, 179.2, (161), 270.4, (243)
South Oxfordshire, 178.1, (253), 288.6, (410)
Ryedale, 175.2, (97), 267.2, (148)
West Suffolk, 173.7, (311), 263.6, (472)
Eastbourne, 172.5, (179), 313.3, (325)
Forest of Dean, 171.7, (149), 335.3, (291)
Folkestone and Hythe, 169.0, (191), 323.9, (366)
Rother, 165.5, (159), 276.9, (266)
Shropshire, 164.0, (530), 306.1, (989)
Surrey Heath, 160.1, (143), 328.1, (293)
Herefordshire, 159.8, (308), 253.1, (488)
West Devon, 159.5, (89), 249.1, (139)
South Holland, 149.4, (142), 255.7, (243)
Fenland, 147.3, (150), 273.9, (279)
Eden, 127.7, (68), 242.2, (129)
King's Lynn and West Norfolk, 127.5, (193), 233.2, (353)
Malvern Hills, 127.1, (100), 335.5, (264)

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