UPDATE 8:16 p.m.: Decision Desk HQ has projected Florida for President Donald Trump.
Decision Desk HQ Projects Trump (R) Has Won The State Of Florida And Its 29 Electoral Votes
Race Called At 11-03 08:11 EST
All Results: https://t.co/6GfosqGUrH
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2020
The polls in the battleground state of Florida open at 7 a.m. local time on Election Day and will remain open until 7 p.m. The majority of the state is in the Eastern Time Zone, with the exception of ten counties in the state’s Panhandle (Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, Jackson, Calhoun, and part of Gulf) that are in the Central Time Zone.
As of Monday, the RealClearPolitics average of the most recent polls show Florida voters slightly favoring Democrat Joe Biden over the Republican incumbent President Donald Trump in the presidential race, at +1.7 points for Biden. FiveThirtyEight shows a similar narrow lead for Biden, +2.4 points.
The Sunshine State is viewed as a must-win for Trump, who has claimed Florida residency through his Mar-A-Lago resort in Palm Beach County, casting his own vote on October 24 during early voting. Both Biden and Trump have fought hard to win over the state’s voters, making multiple trips there in the waning days of the campaign, even holding rallies on the same day in Tampa last Thursday.
With 29 electoral votes and a politically and demographically diverse population that makes it a perennial swing state, Florida will be closely watched as an early bellwether for how the 2020 election will turn out.
Neither Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) nor Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) are on the ballot this year (Scott was elected to his first senatorial term in 2018 and Rubio is next up for re-election in 2022), but there are several key congressional races that are worth tracking.
Florida’s 15th congressional district, stretching from the northeast Tampa suburbs of Brandon and Plant City to Lakeland and Bartow in Polk County, is currently held by Rep. Ross Spano (R-FL), but he was embroiled in a Department of Justice investigation into whether he committed campaign finance violations in his 2018 race, and he lost the Republican primary to challenger Scott Franklin. Franklin, a Lakeland City Commissioner, is facing Democrat Alan Cohn, a television journalist.
The race has been heated, with both candidates accusing the other of ethical violations, and is expected to be very close; the latest voter registration data shows the district as 36 percent Republican, 35 percent Democratic, and 28 third party or no party affiliation. FiveThirtyEight rates the district Likely R, Cook Political Report says Lean R, and RCP thinks it’s a Tossup.
Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) is the incumbent for the 16th district, which includes the southern Tampa Bay area, Bradenton, and Sarasota. He is facing a challenge from Democrat Margaret Good, a state representative who won her legislative seat by defeating Buchanan’s son.
The district is rated Likely R by FiveThirtyEight and Cook, and Lean R by RCP, but if the race is close — or if Good pulls off the upset — it’s a danger sign for Trump’s hopes statewide.
The 18th district is a similar story, with incumbent Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL) favored to defeat Democrat Pam Keith, and hold on to his Treasure Coast district, but the more Keith narrows the gap, the better the night will likely end for Biden.
The state’s southernmost congressional district, the 26th, includes the Florida Keys and parts of Miami-Dade County. Incumbent Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D-FL) flipped the seat from red to blue in her first election in 2018, and is facing a challenge from Republican Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos A. Giménez.
Cook says the 26th district is Lean D, FiveThirtyEight says Likely D, and RCP says Tossup. Along with other South Florida districts, it’s a critically important area for Biden to run up the score — and where Florida Democrats have been raising alarms about tepid turnout during early voting among Black and Latino voters.
First term Rep. Donna Shalala (D-FL) has a better buffer in the 27th district just to the north, with her Republican challenger from 2018, journalist Maria Elvira Salazar, coming back for another attempt. The district that covers a major chunk of Miami-Dade County is rated as Likely D by Cook, FiveThirtyEight, and RCP, but once again is a canary in the coal mine for Democratic turnout.
After the debacle of the 2000 election, in which all the major media outlets prematurely called the state for Democrat Al Gore before the conservative Panhandle had finished their last hour of voting, switched to Republican George W. Bush, and then threw their hands in the air as the state was entangled in a wild recount, reporters have been far more cautious about announcing results before getting at least early returns and turnout figures from the Panhandle.
Florida allows all registered voters to vote by mail if they so choose, and the increased interest in this election combined with ongoing concerns about the pandemic are expected to result in a record-high number of mail-in ballots.
The good news for everyone biting their fingernails waiting for Florida’s results is that state law allows mail-in ballots to be processed before Election Day, and an executive order signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) will allow the county election supervisors to start processing those ballots even earlier this year due to the pandemic.
The first round of results (early votes and mail-in ballots processed before Election Day) are due to the Secretary of State within 30 minutes of the polls closing. If expected trends hold, the early returns should trend more favorably for Democrats, who have been a higher percentage of early and mail-in voting, with Republicans making gains with higher Election Day turnout.
Though exit polling is reported throughout the day, the official vote count, including early and mail-in votes, will not be available until after the polls have officially closed. At that time, we will update this post as results come in.
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