UPDATE: Trump Still Holds Lead Over Biden On Major Betting Sites, But Race Tightening Up Heading Into Wednesday

KJ EdelmanNov 3rd, 2020, 10:39 pm
 

MANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images

President Donald Trump is a favorite to win the 2020 election over Vice President Joe Biden on several major betting sites as of 12:30 a.m. ET. But, Trump’s odds have decreased since Trump was projected to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes.

Action Network reported that the first shift from gamblers came around 8:45 p.m. ET. from a Biden win to a heavy Trump lead, in some cases as high as a four-to-one advantage around 10:00 p.m. ET. After Trump was projected to win Florida, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver gave Trump an increased chance to win, but still called Biden the favorite.

“The one silver lining for Biden a bit is this seems to be mostly concentrated among Cubans in south Florida,” Silver said.” It might not translate to other parts of the country, but Florida would be the first step toward a Trump upset.”

That switch came when Fox News called Biden as the victor of Arizona at around 11:30 p.m. ET. The 11 electoral votes do not make a Biden win in Pennsylvania a must anymore, but the 269-269 map is now even more in play, but still unlikely.

Coming into Tuesday’s results, Trump was listed a healthy underdog by most overseas bookmakers at odds of roughly just under 2-1. Likewise, most poll trackers gave Trump between an 80% to 90% chance to take the 2020 presidential election. While results are still coming in and the United States is still days away from finding the extent of voting margins in individual states, gamblers have seemed to shift their opinion from Tuesday morning.

In their 12:15 a.m. ET odds, Action Network gives Trump a 55% chance to win over Biden, which has decreased in the last two hours when it reached almost 75%. BetFair has tightened the race after giving Trump a little under three-to-one favorite at 10:15 p.m. ET. And Oddschecker, which aggregates betting odds across dozens of sites, still makes Biden an underdog to Trump.

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