Latimer leads Bowman by 17 points in poll days before voting starts in heated primary

Westchester County Executive George Latimer holds a wide lead of 17 points over Rep. Jamaal Bowman in an Emerson College poll released Tuesday with days to go before early voting begins in their heated race for Bowman's House seat.

Latimer led by 48% to 31% in a survey of 425 likely Democratic primary voters in New York's 16th Congressional District, which also found a large share of voters ‒ 21% ‒ remain undecided. It was the first independent poll taken for a combative, big-spending contest that has drawn national attention for the clashing views on the Israel-Hamas war that separate the candidates and divide their party.

Latimer's campaign celebrated the results as a sign of its momentum in a statement Tuesday evening.

"Voters in the Bronx and Westchester are tired of the performative politics and political dysfunction in Washington and want a Representative they can trust to deliver real results, not rhetoric," the statement read.

Bowman responded to the poll by denouncing the large sums a pro-Israel group has spent to support Latimer, which he said had flooded airwaves with ads "dividing our community and distorting my record."

"But this election is about the many versus the money," Bowman said in statement. "Our volunteers are talking to tens of thousands of voters across the district every week, and our data shows consistently that through direct conversations, voters see through the lies and are energized to reject AIPAC’s attempt to buy this seat.”

Bowman and Latimer will square off on June 25 for a district taking in the southern half of Westchester and a slice of the northern Bronx. Bowman is serving his second term after ousting longtime incumbent Eliot Engel in 2020. Latimer is a political veteran who has held elected offices in Westchester for 35 years and has been county executive since 2018.

How did support break down demographically?

The poll found a notable a difference in how younger and older voters view the progressive Bowman versus the more centrist Latimer. Those under 40 preferred Bowman by 44% to 35%, a nine-point edge, while those over 40 favored Latimer by much bigger margins ‒ 31 points among those older than 70 ‒ in three age groups provided by Emerson.

The results also showed a significant split between white and Black voters in choosing between the Black incumbent and white challenger. Bowman led by 14 points among Black voters, while Latimer led by 42 points among white voters. Hispanic voters were evenly split on the two candidates.

Overall, Latimer had a higher favorability rating, with 65% of respondents holding a favorable view of him and 23% having an unfavorable opinion. A majority also viewed Bowman positively but the margin over voters with negative views was much smaller, at 51% to 43%.

How did voters respond on key issues?

Asked about one of the race's defining issues, more voters were aligned with Latimer than with Bowman on the Israel-Hamas war, by 45% to 29%, while a large share ‒ 26% ‒ said they were unsure. Latimer has backed Israel's military action in Gaza as a justifiable response to the deadly Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. Bowman has condemned the war as "collective punishment" of Palestinian civilians and called for a permanent ceasefire for months.

The phone poll was taken over three days last week, from Thursday to Saturday. Emerson College Polling in Boston conducted it in cooperation with WPIX TV in New York City and The Hill, a publication that covers Congress.

A super PAC aligned with the pro-Israel group AIPAC has been spending heavily on ads and campaign mailings since last month for Latimer and against Bowman, totaling $13 million as of Monday, according to the advertising tracking AdImpact. Progressive groups have countered with much smaller amounts of spending on campaign support for Bowman.

Early voting starts Saturday, mail-in votes already coming in

Nine days of early voting before the election begin on Saturday. But voters already have begun casting ballots by mail, thanks to a new state law made that option available to all voters and effectively made permanent a practice used for three years during the pandemic.

As of Tuesday, the Westchester County Board of Elections had sent 10,236 mail-in ballots to voters who requested them. So far, 3,302 of those ballots had been completed and returned to the board.

Chris McKenna covers government and politics for the Journal News and USA Today Network. Reach him at cmckenna@gannett.com.