HURRICANE

Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has emerged off the coast of west African into the eastern Atlantic and is analyzed near 22W, from 17N southward. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13.5N to 16N between 19.5W and 22W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 50W, from 16N southward, moving at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 07.5N to 10N between 48W and 53W.

A tropical wave previously over Central America and adjacent portions of the eastern Pacific along 89W has completely moved over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Please refer to the Tropical Weather Discussion for the Eastern Pacific for more information.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough passes through just north of Banc d'Arguin National Park near 21N17W to 11N30.5W to 08N47.5W. The ITCZ extends from 08N47.5W to 07N57W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is depicted from 07N to 10N between 28W and 32.5W and from 07N to 10.5N between 38W and 43.5W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A trough extends from near 28N89W to 24N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted in the basin along, N, and, E of this trough. In addition, scattered moderate convection is depicted over the eastern Gulf in association to a sea breeze induced surface trough over Florida. Elsewhere, the axis of a high pressure centered well NE of the area extends into the eastern basin.

Mainly ligh to gentle variable winds dominate the basin, except for gentle to moderate mainly east winds over both the far western and far SE basin, including the Florida Straits. Also, the northern extent of a tropical wave is crossing the Yucatan Peninsula, leading to fresh to locally strong winds over waters near the northern and west coasts. Seas are 2 ft or less in the NE Gulf of Mexico, 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will persist across the basin through the forecast period sustaining gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan over the next several days. Scattered showers and tstms are forecast to prevail over the western Gulf waters through Wed morning due to a favorable upper-level pattern and abundant moisture inflow from the Caribbean.

Caribbean Sea

Scattered moderate convection is crossing the Windward Islands and into the far SE basin offshore Venezuela. Isolated moderate convection is observed near the Windward Passage and south of Cuba in association with two weak surface troughs. The eastern end of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends along 10N from Costa Rica to Colombia. Scattered moderate convection associated with this feature extends S of 11N.

Fresh to strong trades dominate the central Caribbean and Windward Passage, with moderate to fresh winds in the east and SW, as well as the Gulf of Honduras. In the NW Caribbean gentle to moderate E winds prevail. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the east and 3 to 5 ft in the NW.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over the eastern Caribbean. In the central Caribbean, easterly winds will remain fresh to strong, expanding to portions of the SW and NW basin this weekend. Seas across the basin will be moderate to locally rough through the forecast period, higher in the central Caribbean through Fri night. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are also expected in the Windward Passage tonight and Wed night under the influence of the ridge.

Atlantic Ocean

A weak surface trough extends along 50W from 22N to 27N, but is not producing sensible weather. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores High dominates much of the basin. Therefore, the convection depicted in the basin is associated with tropical waves, the monsoon trough, and the ITCZ. Please refer to the aforementioned sections above for information about convection. The pressure gradient between these features and the aforementioned high is leading to moderate to locally fresh trades for most of the waters S of 28N, with gentle winds to the N. Strong winds are ongoing offshore the north coast of Hispaniola and in and near the Windward Passage. In the far eastern Atlantic in the vicinity of the Canary Islands, fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail. Seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate most of the basin, with lower seas of 3 to 5 ft closer to 31N and 4 to 6 ft S of 10N.

For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will dominate the forecast waters into the weekend. Under this pressure gradient, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will continue south of 27N through Thu morning, then gentle to moderate speeds are expected through the remainder forecast period. However, easterly winds in the approaches of the Windward Passage and over northern Hispaniola adjacent waters will be fresh to strong through most of the forecast period.

Posted 2 hours ago by NHC Forecaster Krv