HURRICANE

Tropical Waves

A new tropical wave has been introduced in the E Atlantic along 33W, south of 25N moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-13N between 30W-37W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 47W, south of 20W, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant deep convection is noted in association with this wave. The northern half of the wave is embedded within a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 74W, south of 21N, moving westward around 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with a tropical upper-tropospheric trough extending from near 20N75W to 11N81W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N-20N between 69W-78W.

A Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 96W, south of 23N, moving northwestward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 22N in the Bay of Campeche.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N48W. The ITCZ extends from there to the coast of French Guiana near 04N53W. In addition to the convection associated with the wave near 33W, widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N-15N east of 25W.

The NE Pacific monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica coast at 10N84W, and reaching the Colombia coast near 10N76W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N in the SW Caribbean.

Gulf Of Mexico

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the SW Gulf.

An expansive subtropical ridge from the W Atlantic extends southwestward across the central Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds with seas 2-4 ft prevail across the Gulf this afternoon.

For the forecast, high pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico during the next few of days, resulting in generally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Seas will subside to slight across the basin for the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will freshen up at night off NW Yucatan.

Caribbean Sea

Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave in the central Caribbean.

Ridging north of the area along with lower pressure over N South America is forcing fresh to strong trades across the central and NW Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to moderate. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central and SW Caribbean, 4-7 ft in the NW Caribbean, and 3-6 ft in the E Caribbean.

For the forecast, the persistent subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across much of the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds may pulse to near gale at night off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail in the NW Caribbean, pulsing to strong speeds across the Gulf of Honduras at times.

Atlantic Ocean

Please read the Tropical Waves section for the latest details on the tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean.

Ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High extends across the Atlantic from 28N80W to 33N76W to 33N03W. The moderate north- south pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure of the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing only gentle to moderate trades across the tropical N Atlantic, except for fresh to locally strong NE winds near the Canary Islands. Seas are only 3-6 ft over the entire domain, except 5-7 ft near the Canary Islands. An upper- level trough over the Bahamas is forcing a surface trough along 30N between 70W-80W along with widely scattered moderate convection north of 25N west of 76W. Farther east, an upper-level low near 28N62W has no surface component, but is causing widely scattered moderate convection from 20N-27N between 58W-64W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the upper level low near the NW Bahamas will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W through midweek. Otherwise, high pressure will prevail across the area with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Locally fresh to strong winds will pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola late this week.

Posted 8 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Landsea