What can Hawaii tell us about air travel and Covid?

Over on the Flightradar24 blog we recently looked at the data for flights between the US mainland and Hawaii since early 2020. We wanted to get a sense of how much air traffic had dropped and then rebounded, and how much that was affected by the policies Hawaii has had in place for incoming travelers. Namely the initial blanket quarantine requirement for all arrivals and then the policy in place since late last year that has allowed visitors to skip quarantine with a negative test.

In terms of the number of flights on offer, there weren't too many surprises. Although it did surprise me personally that Alaska Airlines is in general one of the top airlines serving Hawaii in terms of total flights.

Flights versus Covid cases

Perhaps most enlightening, though, was putting weekly flight figures into a chart alongside new weekly Covid-19 cases in the state. While it's clear that there are so many factors that can influence case rates and cause infection spikes with this virus, and it's very hard to isolate one factor to point to – those lines do seem to mirror the flight lines to an impressive degree.

The initial takeaway then might naturally be that incoming flights bring rising Covid cases. And that may well be true on a handful of Pacific islands that had previously contained the virus pretty well. But it would seem a mistake to extrapolate that automatically to: "air travel is a major spreader of infection" on a global scale.

An over-simplification?

At least, it would seem a mistake to me to do so. We've seen other examples of borders reopening and Covid cases staying flat for quite some time after. Take the Dominican Republic, for example. It has been one of the more open countries in the Americas throughout much of the pandemic, and was very welcoming to tourists throughout the summer and fall. Yet it didn't really see a big new wave of cases until early this year.

I'm no epidemiologist nor have I looked extensively at the data and all possible variables. But I think we can at least say the correlation is not always so clear and that to demonize air travel (or travel in general) is to over-simplify things. Then again, I'm sure there will be many who disagree with my take.

So does travel cause virus spread?

Gary Leff from View from the Wing has an interesting take on this in a recent post: CDC Director Makes False Claim About Travel Causing Virus Spread. After the CDC Director's dramatic comments about people needing to limit travel to stop another surge, Leff looks at the data and highlights the fact that in many cases in the US, big increases in travel weren't particularly tied to big increases in case numbers.

Of course, testing isn't perfect, nor is quarantine, and it's obvious that air travel is bringing the coronavirus across borders. Or within a country, from one city to another. The question is, though, does it make sense to shut borders or stop most air traffic especially when we're talking about a large country that has plenty of "community spread" already?

An island is a different story

The argument for closing borders is much stronger for a place like Hawaii – where its isolation means it at least has a chance to stop widespread infection by limiting how many outsiders show up on its shores. And yet the trouble is that many places like Hawaii are tourism hotspots whose economies rely to a great extent on those incoming visitors. So the calculus becomes a little trickier.

All of this is intriguing to discuss in light of the recent widespread addition of new flights between the mainland US and Hawaii, and an anticipated big boom in interest for Hawaii travel this summer. Last month the islands saw some of the busiest days for travel since the pandemic began. Hawaiian Airlines has been starting new routes to the likes of Orlando, and CEO Peter Ingram is feeling bullish about demand.

Newly vaccinated and/or otherwise emboldened travelers desperate to go on a trip after a year of sitting at home are making it clear Hawaii is one of their top choices. It's always been a domestic favorite, of course, but is all the more so now with most international destinations either still closed off or at best unpredictable.

Awaiting future data

What will be really interesting is to continue to track the Hawaii flight data versus Covid cases in the weeks to come, and through the summer. I'd hope that with more and more people vaccinated, we won't again see a big spike mirroring a rise in flights.

But if there's one thing we've learned so far, it's that with this virus you can't be sure of much. Still, in the interest of open borders everywhere (something I desperately hope comes back as soon as possible) I'm going to try and remain optimistic.

Head to the Flightradar24 blog for more aviation insights and stories.