The Rapid Pace of Technology Adoption

When new technology arrives in the market there are a few ways to think about the impact and potential solutions. I often consider if there is technology in the past that was similar and what changes did that create. For example, the advent of the internet can be likened to the invention of the printing press, both being powerful technologies that significantly reduced the cost of content creation and information dissemination. Ultimately, they democratized communication and disrupted established governmental and cultural norms. It's worth noting that around 90 years after the introduction of the printing press, Martin Luther became the first "best-selling author," and the Protestant Reformation had a profound impact on religion and governance.

When you take this model into consideration, it is not surprising that social media, which owes its existence to the internet, is now causing disruptions across various sociological, cultural, and governmental aspects. Technologies typically follow a pattern of disruption, and our goal should be to identify a closely related historical precedent and map out the ensuing (r)evolution.

The pace of technology adoption is accelerating exponentially, effectively halving the time between major disruptions. While it took 90 years for the printing press to bring about significant change, the internet achieved a similar level of disruption in about 20 years. When assessing the impacts of technology, it is crucial to consider this rate of adoption.

However, the understanding of technology's impact is not solely rooted in historical comparisons. The practical application of technology often mirrors the way the human brain and knowledge evolve – a series of incremental advancements with occasional major breakthroughs. Observing my own children's development, I noticed that they went from teetering and falling to walking and then running. Learning language was similar.  It started with words that became sentences which evolved into coherent thoughts and now at the dinner table your 15-year-old tells you how they have it all figured out and you’re a luddite because you just don’t understand.

When you think about LLMs and how they can be compared to the learning process to language acquisition, you can draw a parallel to how children learn. It begins with words, advances to sentences, then to paragraphs of ideas, and ultimately to comparing and contrasting various domains of knowledge. For example, the language of physics is vastly different from the language of healthcare. When you think about Search Engines, where did they start – Words. LLMs are poised to revolutionize the search paradigm, shifting it from a keyword-based density solution to a comprehensive answer-based approach.

There are a lot more ways to look at the advent of AI and the impact on our lives. It's important for us to have some tools for consideration as we enter into this brave new world.