Over half of U.S. heart failure patients have obesity, due to increase to two thirds by 2030
Airfinity Ltd
The disease forecasting company, helping you track, predict, and simulate to achieve better disease outcomes.
Welcome to this week's update from Airfinity on the latest developments across the obesity treatment landscape.
Airfinity data indicates that ≈59% of US heart failure patients also have obesity. This is projected to grow to ≈67% by the end of the decade.
Airfinity’s latest proprietary disease outcomes modelling demonstrates the excess burden of heart failure due to obesity in the US is forecast to grow from 2.57 million to 3.4 million by the end of the decade. Weight loss interventions, and their respective projected market shares, can help offset this burden - reach out to hear more on our in-depth analysis of the wider impact of anti-obesity medications.
US Senate launches investigation into the pricing of Wegovy, whilst social media platform TikTok bans most weight loss-related content
Preclinical data have validated a novel therapeutic target for treating obesity. GRP75 is expressed in hunger-related hypothalamic neurons, and experiments reducing function or abolishing GRP75 expression were associated with reduced excess caloric intake and lower body weight/fat than controls. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals have disclosed they are investigating candidates which can target GPR75, exploring small molecule, siRNA and antibody approaches.
New data establish GPR75 as novel anti-obesity & anti-MAFLD target - Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. already have an asset in development
The US senate is launching an investigation into the high prices of Wegovy and Ozempic, and also into Novo Nordisk ’s reasoning for the price discrepancy between these two forms of semaglutide. Ozempic lists for $970/month, whilst Wegovy is ≈40% more expensive at $1349/month. Production costs are likely similar for the two formulations as Airfinity’s recent analysis revealed. These high prices and high demand are fuelling the sale of counterfeit and compounded Ozempic/Wegovy. Much of this is funnelled through the social media platform TikTok, which has just announced it will be effectively banning weight loss-related content from May. This itself has fuelled a debate in that some argue the ban stigmatises obesity.
In 2022, one third of new Danish Ozempic prescriptions were for patients without diabetes - quantitatively supporting the common understanding of wide off-label usage
Off-label use of Ozempic for the treatment of obesity has been widely known to occur, however, to date, there is little data to quantify the extent of this. A published this week examining prescribing practices in Denmark between 2019 - 2023 found that one third of new Ozempic prescriptions in 2022 were for patients without type 2 diabetes - indicating a significant proportion of off-label usage. The authors argue, however, that this off-label prescribing was not of sufficient magnitude to account for the ongoing Ozempic shortages. Off-label usage rates decreased throughout 2023 and the vast majority of patients prescribed Ozempic had diagnosed type 2 diabetes requiring treatment intensification.
Airfinity tracks and analyses over 400 anti-obesity candidates across the entire drug lifecycle, from pre-clinical to approvals, providing near real-time pipeline intelligence and predictions. It also develops and deploys simulation-based forecasting models to dynamically assess key market indicators, future asset performance, patient segmentation, efficacy benchmarking, and the impact of anti-obesity medications on adjacent CVRM market sizes. Request full access to Airfinity's modelling and bespoke analysis via obesity@airifnity.com
News Highlights
Bloomberg - 24 April 2024
Reuters - 24 April 2024
STAT News - 24 April 2024
CNBC - 20 April 2024
Endpoints News - 25 April 2024
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