New Year Predictions!

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DISCLAIMER: This newsletter contains opinions and speculations and is based solely on public information. It should not be considered business or investment advice. The banner and other images included in this newsletter are AI-generated and created for illustrative purposes only. All brand names, logos, and trademarks are the property of their respective owners. At the time of publication of this newsletter, the author has no business relationships, affiliations, or conflicts of interest with any of the companies mentioned except as noted.

Hello again friends and colleagues,

As we celebrate the start of a new year, it's the perfect time to gaze into the crystal ball and envision the transformative shifts that 2024 likely holds for technology and healthcare.

General Technology Predictions for 2024

Superhuman Generative AI Models

The upcoming year promises groundbreaking advancements in foundational generative AI models like Google's Gemini and GPT-5. I anticipate these models achieving superhuman performance across a broad spectrum of professional fields. Additionally, a notable reduction in hallucinations is expected, enhancing reliability and trust in AI-driven decisions.

Revolutionizing Business Processes

The top 10% of technology-forward organizations are poised to reinvent their business processes through strategic AI integration and a comprehensive up-skilling of their workforce. This approach aims to optimize the implementation of new, AI-enabled business models.

Boost in Productivity and Work-Life Balance

Productivity in these leading-edge organizations could soar by 50-100%. This leap is not just a gateway to higher profitability and sustained investment in technological progression but also a means to reduce burnout and enhance employee compensation. This will attract top-tier talent, further solidifying these organizations' market dominance.

Healthcare Industry Transformations in 2024

Superhuman AI Models in Healthcare

The progress of specialized AI models like Med-Gemini and MedPrompt, based on the foundational models mentioned above, will mark a significant milestone in healthcare. In addition to significantly simplifying and accelerating administrative processes, these models will achieve unparalleled proficiency in diagnostic accuracy, treatment planning, and patient care management. Their ability to significantly reduce errors and hallucinations will mark a new era in AI-assisted healthcare.

Healthcare Organizations Reimagining Care Delivery

Leading healthcare institutions will follow the trend of top technology-adopting organizations, reinventing care delivery and operational processes through AI integration. This will involve training healthcare professionals to optimally use AI tools in clinical decision-making, patient interaction, and administrative tasks. Institutions like the Mayo Clinic are set to be pioneers in this transformation, with recently announced $5 billion investment, leveraging AI to enhance patient outcomes and operational efficiency. Other leading institutions such as Providence and Mass General Brighams, are also making significant strides in the integration of AI into care delivery.

Revolution in Productivity and Healthcare Worker Well-being

In these avant-garde organizations, we can expect a 50-100% improvement in clinical and operational productivity. This surge will not only translate into better patient care but also into enhanced work-life balance for healthcare workers, reducing burnout and improving job satisfaction. This environment will attract and retain top medical talent, creating a virtuous cycle of innovation and excellence in patient care.

Ethical and Policy Impact

Leading AI-adopting organizations will recognize a growing need for proactive ethical governance. They will likely establish dedicated AI ethics committees to ensure the transformation is conducted in a responsible and accountable fashion. These committees will focus on developing ethical guidelines, regularly reviewing AI-integrated practices, and ensuring that the use of AI in patient care remains transparent, equitable, and safe. Additionally, continuous ethical training for healthcare professionals will become a core part of technological up-skilling training.

The rapid evolution of AI in healthcare will pose significant policy challenges. The recent Presidential Executive Order on AI will start to produce specific policy frameworks that address the unique challenges posed by AI, including data privacy, patient consent, and algorithmic transparency. I expect that the next generation foundational models will prompt the introduction of new regulatory standards and guidelines, aiming to safeguard patient interests while fostering innovation and technological growth. I expect the FDA will see a significant expansion in scope and authority in the regulation of medical AI, and for an NIH initiative to fund the research necessary to create the critically needed evidence.

Widening Gap in Healthcare Delivery

The chasm between the technology-forward healthcare organizations and the rest will deepen significantly. This will manifest as a worsening of the financial and staffing struggles of the huge majority of lagging institutions. As leading organizations leverage technology to expand the scope and reach of their services, those unable to keep pace with technological transformation will become increasingly unviable. Their struggles will result in heightened calls for governmental financial support, as these organizations fight for survival. These calls are unlikely to result in any meaningful action in an election year leading to an intensifying wave or fire sale mergers and bankruptcies.

As we bid farewell to 2023 and welcome 2024, I look forward to continuing to share my thoughts and engaging with many of you on these unprecedented times!

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL OF YOU!

See you next week,

Sam

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Dr. Sam Basta is a pioneer of healthcare delivery platforms with two decades experience leading award-winning healthcare transformation at payer and provider organizations, and advising startups and technology companies in building market-defining care delivery solutions. NewHealthcare Platforms, his new venture, provides strategic consulting and fractional medical leadership to companies building value-based care delivery platforms, and next-generation care solutions. #HealthcareOnLinkedin