An Improbable Identity Crisis. What is Improbable? Cloud hosting for Games, while trying to be anything else.
Improbable is a cloud company that spent a decade trying to make and market a cloud backend for games (2013-2023). Improbable was founded in 2012 is a cloud company that has tried to use the Games Industry, Games, Game Engines, the Defense Industry, occasional Enterprise Simulation, and more recently 'web3', and the concept of "the metaverse", Bored Ape NFTs, and now 'Gen AI' to justify its Cloud tech. Anything to justify its Cloud tech. Anything except creating compelling experiences that draw an audience. These are the struggles across the decade of a cloud company that will put games, defense, enterprise, web, blockchain, or AI in front of their name if it will helps to sell a custom cloud backend to anyone. Maybe make a good game?
April 2023: “Improbable – A company that provides a cloud-based platform for running large-scale simulations, often used in gaming and defense.“
I don’t dislike Improbable. It’s basically a game backend company, like PlayFab, GameSparks, Cloudgine, etc. that scaled up to Cloud. Microsoft bought PlayFab for Azure. Amazon bought GameSparks for AWS. Epic bought Cloudgine for Fortnite. Improbable could have been bought by Google or Unity. Except it clashed with Unity in 2019. And it partnered with Google but I guess never impressed Google. Instead it has struggled and floundered with weird deals, acquisitions, and later sales. I’ve just found it puzzling that Improbable never prioritized building its own good game to show off its tech. Game tech has to show through successful projects. But Improbable was always about game tech for anything else, if they could. And this is why they are struggling.
Nov 2019: “Improbable grows to a complete cloud-based multiplayer games tech company, expands existing partnership with Google Cloud“
Hey ‘web3’ folks? Improbably is really, really Cloud. Like full integration with Google GCloud. Is your 'web3' schmetaverse built on Google GCloud? Theirs is. the future of the internet is Cloud. But the mapping of the 3D Iternet will not be done bty
July 2023: "DevOps Awards winner Improbable on “unleashing the full power of the cloud”
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IMPROBABLE TIMELINE (2012-2023)
(First an acknowledgment. Many thanks to GamesIndustry.Biz for being an Industry archive and resource across the years.)
2012 Founded
2014 Seed Round
2015 Series A
May 2014: “Mission Improbable: Changing the online world. Meet the CEO of the company that is quietly snapping up talent to build a new type of persistent world”
Mar 2015: “Improbable scores $20m investment from Andreessen Horowitz. Partner Chris Dixon joins board at tech company”
Oct 2015: “Bossa Studios: Whole new worlds. Sky whales, grappling hooks, floating islands, the indie studio is having fun with Improbable technology”
May, 2017: “This is as important as AI or space travel” - Why Improbable is worth over $1bn. We speak to the CEO of Britain's most talked about start-up”
Aug 2018: “Whole new worlds: Improbable's tech lets smaller studios think big. With Mavericks and Seed, Automaton and Klang Games are using SpatialOS to redefine what it means to be massively multiplayer”
Jan 2019: “Unity explains Improbable license revocation, says SpatialOS creator's claims "incorrect". Update: SpatialOS devs are safe, Improbable calls for "code of conduct" in development ecosystem“
Jan 2019: “Unity changes course following dispute with Improbable. John Riccitiello and Joachim Ante to host Reddit AMA today“
May 2019: “Bossa Studios to close Worlds Adrift in July. Ambitious MMO made with SpatialOS lasted one year in Early Access, but didn't find a big enough audience“
Aug 2019: “Spilt Milk pulling plug on Lazarus. Another SpatialOS-powered game shutting down as studio feared maintenance costs would have exceeded monetization“
Sept 2019: “Improbable acquires The Multiplayer Guys. Multiplayer service provider brought into the fold following collapse of three SpatialOS games“
Sept 2019: “Improbable acquires Scavengers developer. CEO Herman Narula explains strategy behind Midwinter purchase, addresses shut down of some high-profile SpatialOS titles”
Jan 2020: "Interview: Improbable talks cloud tech, SpatialOS and more. Cloud computing is advancing in leaps and bounds and one company leading the pack is Improbable with its SpatialOS technology."
Mar 2020: "Backed by SoftBank, Herman Narula’s Improbable is struggling to revolutionize gaming industry"
Mar 2020: Improbable's losses rose 65% last year to £63.7 million. But SpatialOS developer says accounts do not reflect "major changes" that have taken place in the last nine months”
Mar 2021: "Improbable Worlds’ dream of revolutionising gaming is fading. The only active game built with technology from one of Britain’s brightest start-ups is being cancelled."
Sept 2021: “Improbable promises of the metaverse | This Week in Business. It can be tough telling the metaverse true believers from the snake oil salesmen”
Sept 2021: “Improbable leaning into the metaverse. CEO Herman Narula says company has been working on "Project Morpheus" solutions to help metaverse companies, will soon have profitable businesses of its own“
Oct 2021: “Improbable takes another crack at explaining the metaverse. After skepticism of the company's vision, CEO Herman Narula wants to be more precise about what it is, and how it's different from what already exists“
Feb 2022: “Tencent acquires Inflexion from Improbable. CEO Aaryn Flynn says there's still potential in cloud computing, even if the studio's Nightingale will no longer use SpatialOS“
May 2022: “Whatever happened to 'the power of the cloud'? | Opinion. This week saw another cloud-chasing outfit exit the scene as Improbable sold off Midwinter to pursue the metaverse“
May 2022: “Improbable sells Scavengers studio Midwinter Entertainment. Behaviour Interactive takes over developer as Improbable focuses on the metaverse“
Aug 2022: Herman Narula: How Improbable put 4,500 Bored Apes in the same metaverse space“
Aug 2022: “TinyBuild acquires Bossa Studios IPs for $3m. Includes Surgeon Simulator, I am Fish and I am Bread, with TinyBuild also acquiring Russian studio Konfa Games for $5.4m“
Nov 2022: “Scavengers to shut down in December
Improbable says title had become "unsustainable" following a "decline in the playerbase"“
June 2023: “Improbable sells off defense subsidiary. The transaction includes a transfer of engineers and contracts with the UK's Ministry of Defense“
Dec 2023: “Keywords acquires The Multiplayer Group from Improbable for £76.5m. MPG has worked on titles including Fall Guys and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2“
This is a record of 10+ years of identity crisis. There is good work and tech in Cloud, but my god, PICK A LANE. Improbable got money but not the will to do something with it an excel. Thank Softbank and a16z for giving too much money to a company that has tried to compete directly with Cloud providers while its platform hasn't had a clear successful product. Build and show success first. They've certainly had enough money to.
#gameindustry #videogames #gamedev #gamedevelopment #gamepublishing #cloud #backend #3dinternet #improbable #web3isajoke notmetaverse #schmetaverse
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4dRafael, appreciate you for sharing this!
CEO & Founder at Symbol Zero // Microsoft Regional Director
7moThis (above) honestly started as a comment for this (below) and got too big: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/rafaelbrown_softbank-backed-metaverse-firm-improbable-activity-7142661186369564672-VRuT