Zeke Emanuel’s Post

🎉 Get ready to predict the 2024 presidential election! 🎉 I've crunched the numbers and modeled polling errors across the United States to give you a highly accurate view of the uncertainty surrounding the next president. It's shaping up to be an intense race, with Donald Trump taking a strong early lead despite the jobs boom. 🚨🚨 Explore the overall results, state-level breakdowns, and my articles assessing the model and other key election topics! 🔥 Like what you see or have other ideas? Drop a comment and let's discuss! Follow the IG link in the footer for more random political and economic data posts from me. 📊 #2024Election #PollingAnalysis #ElectionPredictions https://lnkd.in/ecnBqpgK

🚨 PiData | Prediction | Breaking News in U.S. Politics: 2024 Election Projections! 🚨 If the elections were held today, the political landscape of Congress would undergo a significant shift. According to the latest polling data, here’s what we can expect: U.S. Senate: 🟦 Republicans: 51 seats 🟦 Democrats: 49 seats Republicans are poised to reclaim the majority, flipping crucial seats in key battleground states like Ohio, Montana, and West Virginia. This shift underscores the dynamic nature of our political climate and the high stakes of this election cycle. House of Representatives: 🟧 Republicans: 220 seats 🟧 Democrats: 215 seats The GOP is projected to maintain a narrow majority in the House, highlighting a fiercely competitive environment with numerous toss-up districts. The slight edge on the generic congressional ballot is propelling Republicans forward, but the battle is far from over. 👉 Join the conversation: What do these projections mean for the future of U.S. governance? How should businesses and individuals prepare for potential policy changes? #Politics #2024Elections #Senate #HouseOfRepresentatives #PollingData #ElectionProjections #Congress #USPolitics

Excellent report RAND and Todd Helmus on protecting 2024 elections. Paper focuses on key risks and potential threats drawn from analysis of data collected from state and federal court filings! Trust In Media Cooperative

It’s been a while since I haven’t posted consumer research or public opinion data - after all, I am not in that line of business anymore. But lately, many people, especially outside the US, have asked me whether it was true that Donald Trump had real chances to get elected again. Who is the US President is not only important to the Americans, obviously, but to the whole planet. I think this chart from the The Wall Street Journal illustrates why the outcome is very uncertain at this point. Of course the WSJ, although an excellent source of information, is leaning republican. So for good measure and if you are interested, you can listen to this recent The New York Times podcast (the NYT leans democrat) titled “43% vs 43%: why Trump and Biden are tied in our poll” https://lnkd.in/eNTpnqVd. Keep in mind that 15 months out, polls are not a good predictor of the election results, that in the US presidential election bipartisan system candidates need to win the primaries first to be endorsed by their respective parties, and that it is an indirect election system, where earning the majority of the national vote (the “popular vote”) does not guarantee a win. #uspresidentialelection

Immediately following Thursday's Presidential Debate, Mercury launched a survey with 960 respondents, with a margin of error of +-2.19%. 120 minutes later, here are the first important numbers around how the candidates did: Only 23% believed that Joe Biden had enhanced his appeal to undecided or Trump-supporting voters, while a substantial 50% thought he had not. Conversely, 37% felt that Donald Trump had increased his appeal, with only 31% believing he had not. The question of voting preferences if the election were held today revealed a lead for Donald Trump, with 47% of respondents indicating a likelihood to vote for him (Top-3-Box), against 40% for Joe Biden (Bottom-3-Box). It’s noteworthy that 7% remained unsure, reflecting a segment of undecided voters still in play Read our MercuryAI enabled Top line for insights and details. More to come... #debate #Biden #trump #marketresearch #AI

Should Biden bow out? We at ECR Research are regularly discussing the potential outcome and consequences of the 2024 US vote. Election analysis legend Nate Silver is struggling with the question whether Democrats would be better off if Biden wouldn't run again. It's worthwhile to read his whole Substack piece, but here are some quotes: "...Isn’t it too early to be looking at polls in the first place? I actually think there’s a lot of truth to that. There are plenty of people like my friend who aren’t thinking about the campaign much...if you look at historical head-to-head polling a year ahead of the election, you’ll find it has little if any correlation with the eventual results...[But] given that both Biden and Trump are extremely well-known, you might tend to take the polling more at face value... ...my head and gut have begun to diverge. Responsible Psephologist Nate says that it’s at least six months too late to have this conversation — that the most likely outcome of a serious primary challenge to Biden would be Biden winning the nomination anyway but being even worse for wear, or perhaps stepping down and endorsing Harris...But my gut — which I must reiterate, you should not trust — is...saying this: Voters are telling us in every possible way that they’d really like someone other than these two guys to be on the ballot next year..." https://lnkd.in/esp5KhxT #uspolitics #USelections #politics #joebiden #donaldtrump #democrats #presidentialelection

According to our monthly Election Tracker, two-thirds of Americans plan to vote in the upcoming primaries. However, Republican primary voting intent has dipped by two points since November, while Democratic plans increased by one point. Just under a third don’t intend to vote in either party’s primary. See more insights like these here: https://hubs.la/Q02gvzH70 #CivicScience #insights #data #trends #intelligence #marketresearch #mrx #consumerbehavior #consumerinsights #consumerintelligence #consumerbehavior #report

When Americans look for information about politics and elections, one of the first places they turn to is Google. The Associated Press and Google Trends have partnered throughout this year to show what folks are most interested in: crime, healthcare, unemployment, economy and so on. The data updates weekly and you can drill down to see which topics are on the minds of residents in your county. Hope you take a look.

Biden sucking hind t*t in new poll. CBS News poll: "As Super Tuesday makes an historic rematch all but official, voters are comparing not just two presidents, but two presidencies." "And right now former President Donald Trump emerges from that comparison as the frontrunner. He leads President Biden by four points nationally, his largest lead to date. Here's why." "Voters recall the economy under Trump more fondly than they rate the economy now." "While neither gets great marks, voters today look back on Trump's presidency with relatively better retrospective ratings than they'd rate Joe Biden's presidency so far." Drill down poll: CBS News YouGov #polls #border #bordersecurity #economy #trump2024 #bidenharris2024 #biden