Cliff Taylor: The latest national accounts show the domestic economy ploughs on despite noisy data overall
The Irish Times’ Post
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Professor of Plant Pathology; Expert Horizon2020; Wheat, Barley; Puccinia, Blumeria; Molecular markers; IPM
RT: European Commission @EU_Commission We're approaching the end of a challenging year for our economy, in which growth has slowed down more than expected. Looking ahead to 2024, we can expect growth to rebound modestly, helped by strong labour markets and easing of inflation. Read the Autumn #ECForecast ↓ https://lnkd.in/dnPgXG6b
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2 recent economic gauges have reflected strong growth from the 4th quarter. Gross domestic product rose at an upwardly revised 3.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter on the back of stronger household demand and business investment, according to the third estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis out Thursday. The government's other main gauge of economic activity — gross domestic income — rose 4.8%, the most in two years.
U.S. Economy Sees Strong Growth
cpapracticeadvisor.com
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If you are like me, who studies the supply chain closely, you are sure to struggle to understand such a complex thing. Now it's added a new thing named "protectionist economy.". Like every other country, it's a major challenge for the authoritarian government to accelerate the wheel of the economy, boost it's own employment sector, satisfy it's people, and also gain a financial advantage over other countries. It seems like countries around the world just love to connect the policy of "protectionist economies" into their regular economic behavior and want to gain some great fiscal advantages. It's just possible to produce a product in a country with a minimum cost and then target some big economy countries and sell the product to those countries at a high price. Most of the big economy countries have a high currency valuation rate, so the company also benefited from it. But now, countries are no longer interested in the concept of globalization from an economic perspective; they put a high tax rate on foreign goods and try to prevent companies from just selling their products into the country, which means they don't see the countries as just consumers anymore. Carbon tax is the new form of protectionist economy. Now the only way for the company that is open via government is that everything will change, including taxes. Just put the plant inside the country, help the government facilitate more jobs for the youth, and boost the economic growth of the country. Well, sometimes it's difficult to pick a side, whether it's right or wrong, in moral values, yes, it's wrong, but, it's also important for a country to employ it's huge workforce.
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One of the biggest stories of 2023 is that the U.S. economy grew faster than any other economy in the Group of 7 nations, made up of democratic countries with the world’s largest advanced economies. By a lot. The International Monetary Fund yesterday reported that the U.S. gross domestic product—the way countries estimate their productivity—grew by 2.5%, significantly higher than the GDP of the next country on the list: Japan, at 1.9%.
February 1, 2024
heathercoxrichardson.substack.com
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Some sobering reading in line with my expectations of where we are presently and what’s ahead in the next 12 months. The suggestion of possible easing of rates this year is a bit of a surprise but only in as much as the reason for them dropping will be the economy being tougher than anticipated. That is not a good thing. The reporting I’ve seen in the last couple of weeks concers with Liam’s article that the signs are things are tougher across the economy than they were a month ago. Looking around hospitality looks to be struggling, empty cafes which were full, for lease, for sale, and for rent signs aplenty have grown out of footpaths and fuel prices down significantly before the tax changes come into effect. https://lnkd.in/gndN_QFr GDP: Economic outlook downgraded by international group - ‘more challenges than anticipated’
‘More challenges than anticipated’: NZ outlook downgraded by international group
nzherald.co.nz
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https://lnkd.in/ecAcvD-a I WAS NOT ABLE TO COMMENT ON YAHOO FINANCE, SO I WILL COMMENT HERE: QUOTE: "2. China Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $31,624.42 While China’s CAGR from 2023 – 2028 has been a healthy 7.5%, it is still not sufficient to overcome the gap between the U.S. In fact, the slowdown means that there’s a chance that China will never overtake the U.S. economy, as economists estimate that growth could slow down to 3.5% by 2030 and just 1% in 2050, much lower than earlier projections... " UNQUOTE While I am not a big Fan of Communist China, currently, on Dec 31, 2023, China's Nominal GDP of $17.7 Trillion is 63.8% of the USA's $27.7 Trillion GDP. That percentage has been fairly steady over the past several years. In this article, Yahoo Finance projects China's Nominal GDP to be the above $31.6 Trillion ($31,624 Billion) or 90.8% of the USA's projected GDP, which Yahoo Finance projects to be $34.8 Trillion in 2030. You do not need to have a PhD in "Trend Analysis" to see where the "Trend" is going --- with China's GDP being 63.8% of the USA's GDP in 2023 and 90.8% in 2030. If my calculator is correct, that is an increase of 27 Percentage Points in 7 years, or 3.8 percentage points per year. That would indicate that, by 2033, China's GDP would increase by "3 times 3.8" or by 11.4 Percentage Points of that of the USA's, between 2030 and 2033. Thus, by 2033, based on the above, I would expect China's Nominal GDP to be "90.8% plus 11.4%" or 102.2% of the USA's Nominal GDP. As for the PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) version of GDP, China's "PPP GDP" surpassed that of the USA some time ago! Again, I do not approve of the way China cracks down on Human Rights and on Private Corporations, hurting its young people from finding meaningful jobs. But the above analysis (based on Yahoo Finance's Numbers), does not agree with Yahoo Finance's conclusion.
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KCnomics, LLC - New home to the original Red-Shoe Ecomomist specializing in CRE, Logistics & Ports, Affordable Housing and Property Tax Appeals
Germany - Europe's largest economy - is on the verge of recession as Consumer Spending declines. The recent 4.5% GDP reading for the US economy was mostly Gov Spending. The US consumer is struggling with high inflation and interest rates and is "spending more" because things cost more. This is a warning for the Federal Reserve. #cre #ccim #sior #uli #naiop #economy #naiop https://lnkd.in/gSQfAgHu
Europes' largest economy falls further behind US in recession warning
fortune.com
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Some sobering reading in line with my expectations of where we are presently and what’s ahead in the next 12 months. The suggestion of possible easing of rates this year is a bit of a surprise but only in as much as the reason for them dropping will be the economy being tougher than anticipated. That is not a good thing. The reporting I’ve seen in the last couple of weeks concers with Liam’s article that the signs are things are tougher across the economy than they were a month ago. Looking around hospitality looks to be struggling, empty cafes which were full, for lease, for sale, and for rent signs aplenty have grown out of footpaths and fuel prices down significantly before the tax changes come into effect. https://lnkd.in/gjxkTiQQ GDP: Economic outlook downgraded by international group - ‘more challenges than anticipated’
‘More challenges than anticipated’: NZ outlook downgraded by international group
nzherald.co.nz
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Managing Director at The Recruitment Company - Specialists in IT Infrastructure, Cloud, Data & Security
While we still face many challenges across a lot of sectors, it's positive to see an overall small increase in GDP for the start of 2024. The overall outlook for the Irish economy looks positive, with expected stable growth driven by both the domestic and traded sectors. It will be interesting to see how this might affect the jobs market in the months ahead. Watch this space.... 👀 https://lnkd.in/eZ94v9y3
Irish economy makes small gains in the opening quarter of 2024
https://businessplus.ie
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Entrepreneur | Board Member | Angel Investor | Venture Capital | Private Equity | M&A | Accelerator | Podcast | Public Speaker
Economies based on exports are very vulnerable to geopolitical upheavals. I have always believed that economies must leverage their own domestic demand and supplement it with exports. You cannot control external demand, but you can manage your domestic one. One of the major problems in Europe—and not just in Germany—is salaries. They are too low and significantly reduce the spending power of our citizens. If you want a strong economy, start by providing good salaries and a quality life to your own people.
Germany likely to already be in recession, suggests Bundesbank
euronews.com
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