THE SCIENCE OF COUNTRY RISK MANAGEMENT
Michael Avery had the kindness to invite me to a conversation on his Monocle Solutions podcast. We spoke about Eunomix's work in geopolitical and country risk (GCR), and on how we developed a unique, datacentric process for measuring and managing GCR.
We then focused on #SouthAfrica's government of national unity. As at today 27 June there still isn't a GNU. I doubt there will be a functional one.
My view has attracted significant criticism.
I am a geopolitical and country risk expert. I am a political economist. I am a strategy adviser:
It is my job to analyse, breakdown, discover how countries function, perform, succeed, fail, interact, go to war, make peace. This is a specialist field. I don't opine. I don't entertain my own hopes and disappointments, my preferences and dislikes. I am a member of professional institutes. I am bound by codes of ethics that are non-negotiable.
Experts are needed. They are the doctors we hate to visit but love to have when we are sick, the air safety investigators who ensure that each air accident make planes safer, the geologists who certify that there is/isn't oil down that well irrespective of the fact that client wants there to be, the accountants who certify that accounts are accurate and true reflections of a listed company's financials.
Without experts there is nothing but opinions and make believe.
This is not to say that experts are always correct and right and authorative. Theories, conceptual models, data, experience, integrity matter. One should be transparent about them, and how conclusions and recommendations are reached. Without disclosure there is no trust.
A challenge of our field is that we deal with a very personal reality: our clients live in their society; have parents, sibblings, childrens, partners, friends there. When their country doesn't work, it pains and worries them.
A couple years ago, the CEO of a client company told me at a conference upon seeing me: "I don't want to hear you tell me that my country is f#%*ed, so go away."
He wouldn't say this to a safety specialist who warns him of a likely serious issue. He would deal with it.
But I heard him, and I hear those who believe my forecasts are just opinions or hopelessness. They are neither. They hold up to scrutiny: in 2016 we accurately forecasting (not predicted - not the same thing) that South Africa would rank as a failed state by 2030 unless politics and policies are changed. Our forecast was accurate at 90% as at 2022 data. Fact!
Geopolitical and country risk are measurable. They can be forecasted with great accuracy. And because of this, they are, within degrees of uncertainty, manageable.
The likely failure of the GNU isn't opinion or guess or bias against SA. It's calculations and probabilities based on robust social science.
Hope isn't a strategy, said #BarrackObama. Knowledge IS power: to prepare, to adapt, to influence.
To work!
https://lnkd.in/dq4iXp3y
Claude de Baissac, Founder and CEO at Eunomix, has consistently raised the red flag on South Africa’s economic and political standing.
To understand whether he sees the Government of National Unity as an opportunity or hindrance to delivering the required reforms, Michael Avery sat down with Claude to debate the future of our country.
Click here to listen to the full podcast:
Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3OpT4LE
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3w0uhaN
Google Podcasts: https://bit.ly/47TyCK9
#GNU #SAPoliticalLandscape #SAEconomy
Business Executive | Entrepreneur l BFSI Systems Expert l
1wWell said 👌🏾