Steven Thur’s Post

Good news! New research by a team including current and former NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration-affiliated scientists has shown that atmospheric concentrations of a class of ozone-depleting chemicals used as refrigerants, foam blowing agents and solvents peaked in 2021 and are now beginning to decline as nations comply with restrictions called for by the Montreal Protocol. Using high-precision measurements of air samples provided by NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network and the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment obtained at their globally distributed atmospheric observatories, the researchers were able to determine that both the ozone-depleting impact and heat-trapping impact of these chemicals had peaked five years earlier than projections. Scientists expect adherence to controls agreed to by the parties to the Montreal Protocol will restore the stratospheric ozone layer by 2065, preventing 443 million cases of skin cancer, approximately 2.3 million skin cancer deaths, and more than 63 million cases of cataracts in the United States alone, with even greater benefits worldwide. #noaa #research

Tornados are among the most destructive and deadly weather events. Our colleagues at the National Weather Service routinely issue tornado warnings with 15-25 minutes' lead time. Researchers at NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration are working to develop models to provide more advanced notice of tornados. On May 21, 2024, severe thunderstorms struck central Iowa, producing flash flooding, straight line wind damage and at least nine tornadoes. One of those tornadoes impacted the community of Greenfield, resulting in five fatalities. The tornado was rated an EF4 by the National Weather Service, with an estimated wind speed of up to 185 miles per hour.  Our experimental Warn-on-Forecast system, using computer models and machine learning to projct tornados with greater lead time, predicted the tornado 75 minutes before it hit Greenfield. While any loss of life is tragic, these Warn-on-Forecast research advances and the warnings issued by NWS undoubtedly saved many lives that day. This is the result of close collaboration between dedicated researchers and operational specialists- federal investment saving lives. #noaa #research.

June is Ocean Month! Check out some of the ways that researchers at NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research are pushing the envelope on what is possible for exploring, mapping, and observing our oceans. #noaa #research #oceans

This April and May, there were at least 450 confirmed tornados in the U.S., and in one five-day period, 23 different states had at least one tornado touch down. I have been drawn to work at NOAA because of my desire to implement science as a public service. These past two months have shown the power of science as dedicated forecasters at the National Weather Service warned our fellow citizens and prevented additional loss of life by using the output of research conducted by staff at NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and partner organizations. Though these storms were devistating and did cause irreparable loss to many families, the work of these professionals saved countless lives during these severe storm outbreaks. They have my admiration and thanks. #noaa #research

Levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) measured at NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s Mauna Loa Atmospheric Baseline Observatory by our Global Monitoring Laboratory surged to a seasonal peak of just under 427 parts per million (426.90 ppm) in May, when CO2 reaches its highest level in the Northern Hemisphere. That’s an increase of 2.9 ppm over May 2023 and the 5th-largest annual growth in NOAA’s 50-year record. When combined with 2023’s increase of 3.0 ppm, the period from 2022 to 2024 has seen the largest two-year jump in the May peak in the NOAA record. “Over the past year, we’ve experienced the hottest year on record, the hottest ocean temperatures on record and a seemingly endless string of heat waves, droughts, floods, wildfires and storms,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “Now we are finding that atmospheric CO2 levels are increasing faster than ever." #research #noaa

Happy Birthday to America’s newest National Marine Sanctuary! Today, NOAA designated a 1,722-square-mile area in eastern Lake Ontario as America's 16th national marine sanctuary. Lake Ontario National Marine Sanctuary 一adjacent to New York’s Jefferson, Oswego, Cayuga and Wayne counties 一 will celebrate the region’s maritime cultural history and provide new opportunities for research, education, recreation and maritime heritage-related tourism in local coastal communities and the broader Great Lakes region.

50 years ago, NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration staff began continuous atmospheric measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. These samples, started by NOAA in 1974, complement measurements taken by scientists with Scripps Institution of Oceanography since 1958. The sustained, collaborative effort has helped educate scientists and the public about the relentless rise of CO2 caused primarily by burning fossil fuels. This month, as the annual CO2 cycle peaks, concentrations have been averaging 427 ppm, more than 90 ppm above the 1974 level.  This is the highest average concentration of CO2 measurements in the modern record. Perched high on the barren slopes of the Mauna Loa volcano in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, the observatory protrudes through the strong marine boundary layer temperature inversion that separates the more polluted lower portions of the atmosphere from the much cleaner free troposphere. The 11,135-foot elevation above sea level is ideal for sampling well-mixed air undisturbed by the influence of local pollution sources or vegetation, producing measurements that represent the average state of the atmosphere in the northern hemisphere.  The characteristics that make the site ideal for measuring CO2 also provide ideal conditions for a wide variety of other atmospheric research efforts. #noaa #research #climate

Congratulations to Ariela Zycherman, PhD on being named by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) as the director of the Sixth National Climate Assessment (NCA6). Ariela, a social scientist with NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration's Climate Program Office, is the first NOAA scientist to direct the National Climate Assessment since the inaugural national climate assessment in 2000. The authoritative report published every four years is designed to help Americans understand and prepare for the impacts of climate change. #noaa #research #climate

It feels like "deja vu all over again", but it is an important set of facts to share. Last month continued our planet’s feverish pace to the year, with April 2024 ranking as the warmest April on record. April was also the 11th month in a row of record-warmth for the world, according to scientists and data from NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information. The average global temperature in April was 2.38 degrees F (1.32 degrees C) above the 20th-century average of 56.7 degrees F (13.7 degrees C), making it the warmest April in the global climate record. Regionally, South America had its warmest April on record, and Europe had its second warmest. Meanwhile, much of Australia, Scandinavia and northwest Russia were cooler than average. The year-to-date global temperature ranked as the warmest such period on record at 2.41 degrees F (1.34 degrees C) above the 20th-century average.  According to NCEI’s Global Annual Temperature Rankings Outlook, there is a 61% chance that 2024 will rank as the warmest year on record and a 100% chance that it will rank in the top five of warmest years recorded. #noaa #research

The tragedy of the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse in Baltimore prompted a massive maritime mobilization for search, rescue, recovery, removal, and repair. Less known is the response on land and in the air. Following the collapse, deliveries to the busy port via ship were halted, and the number of trains and trucks coming into the city dropped dramatically as well. NOAA: National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration researchers immediately knew that there would be unique data to capture while the port was shuttered. Large trucks, piles of coal, and the machinery used to power cranes and ships all contribute to particulate matter in the air and to pollution. Since early April 2024, a team from the NOAA’s Air Resources Lab have been taking air samples in the Curtis Bay neighborhood immediately to the east of the bridge. They hope to provide new insights into the impacts of transportation on air quality for local communities. #research