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What does a VC-backed exit have to look like to make it more attractive than bootstrapping? We are increasingly hearing recommendations not to take venture money (really, there is no need) and to develop independently on our own (=bootstrap). Dirk Salmer (SaaS Group) took this topic and made some interesting discussions. 1/ He took the following data: ▪️Carta data on startup estimates by rounds and, as a result, the dilution of founders; ▪️Data from SaaS Napkin on ARR threshold levels that a startup must achieve at different stages; ▪️I assumed that current market estimates are 5x revenue, a good exit to a strategist occurs for 10x of revenue, and bootstrapped businesses are bought for 2.5x revenue. Actually, these are three scenarios for evaluating a startup at the exit; ▪️The difference is that venture money washes away founders, so we need to take into account how much is left for them. 2/ As a result, he calculated how much more or less the founders personally receive, subject to the implementation of one of three scenarios: 🔹Bootstrapped businesses outperform venture ones, provided the latter retain a 50% premium in the exit multiplier. Here is the advantage by stage: ▪️Seed: $1.5M: 🟢 +5%; ▪️Series A: $5M: 🟢 +60%; ▪️Series B: $12M: 🟢 +17%; ▪️Series C: $22M (Dirk's benchmark): 🟢 +66%; ▪️Series D: $60M (Dirk's benchmark): 🟢 +151%. However, in case if the sale is for 10x, a premium of 4 times, the situation is different - bootstrapped businesses almost always lose: ▪️Seed: $1.5M: 🔴 -69%; ▪️Series A: $5M: 🔴 -58%; ▪️Series B: $12M: 🔴 -42%; ▪️Series C: $22M (Dirk's benchmark): 🔴 -17%; ▪️Series D: $60M (Dirk's benchmark): 🟢 +26%; 🔹Only in one case, in the very late stage Bootstrapped wins, but there is the most guesswork presence. 3/ This all leads me to the next thought. If you look at the picture statically, it’s definitely no worse to do a bootstrapped business. However, we still need to ask ourselves the question - what will happen to the market, do you expect the multipliers to grow? If you are expecting, then it is likely that it will be more profitable for you to do a startup. #startup #VC #bootstrap

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