Seychelles Meteorological Authority’s Post

I am pleased to share our recent #AGU publication "Assessing Storm Surge Multiscenarios Based on Ensemble Tropical Cyclone Forecasting". In our pursuit of enhancing the potential of ensemble-based disaster forecasting, we introduce a novel, efficient, and practical method known as "Pareto optimality" to objectively quantify worst-case scenarios. Pareto optimal solutions provide a comprehensive view of trade-off disaster outcomes across diverse coastal locations, reflecting the physical aspects of disasters. Additionally, the analysis of meteorological variables within Pareto frontiers sheds light on the impact of a tropical cyclone on predicted disaster multi-scenarios. We anticipate that our innovative framework will inspire forecasters and risk management practitioners to explore new avenues for assessing disasters and mitigating associated risks. If you wish to learn more about this framework and plan to attend #AGU23, please join me during the session "Advances in Early Warning and Anticipatory Action for Hydrometeorological and Hydrogeomorphic Hazards" for an in-person oral presentation on Monday, 11 December 2023, from 08:30 to 10:00 PST, California.

Interesting article: https://lnkd.in/gujD3kHb In conclusion, the collaboration between the Japan Meteorological Agency and the private sector marks a significant step forward in disaster forecasting. This partnership promises to provide more accurate, localized, and timely information, ultimately enhancing the nation's preparedness and response to flood and landslide disasters.

“In July 2021, a long period of sustained and heavy rainfall affected central Europe, producing extreme rainfall amounts in western Germany, eastern Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands” This meteorological event combined with already near-saturated soil conditions and steep slopes of several river valleys in the region caused disastrous flooding. But how big was the flood? This event was one of the most severe natural catastrophes in Europe in the last half century and was responsible for at least 220 fatalities and an economic loss amount estimated to be around EUR 46 billion. Recent analyses indicate that the rainfall accumulations during the event reached unprecedented levels over large areas.  Accumulations over durations from 1 to 3-days significantly exceeded the 200-year return level in several places, with up to 90 % of exceedance over the 200-year return level for 2 to 3-day values locally in the Vesdre Basin. Such a record-breaking event needs to be documented as much as possible, and available observational data must be shared with the scientific community for further studies in hydrology, in urban planning and, more generally, in all multi-disciplinary studies aiming to identify and understand factors leading to such disaster ... for this is a harbinger of things to come … See Journée et al. (2023) in HESS, “Quantitative rainfall analysis of the 2021 mid-July flood event in Belgium”

Study on extreme precipitation and flood events- Atmospherics Rivers

#snsinstitutions #snsdesignthinkers #designthinking DISASTER MANAGEMENT Disaster management refers to the planning, coordination, and implementation of measures to mitigate the impact of natural or man-made disasters. It involves preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation efforts aimed at minimizing loss of life, property damage, and the overall disruption caused by disasters. Disasters are naturally occurring physical phenomena caused either by rapid or slow onset events that have immediate impacts on human health and secondary impacts causing further death and suffering. These disasters can be: 1. Geophysical (e.g. Earthquakes, Landslides, Tsunamis and Volcanic Activity) 2. Hydrological (e.g. Avalanches and Floods) 3. Climatological (e.g. Extreme Temperatures, Drought and Wildfires) 4. Meteorological (e.g. Cyclones and Storms/Wave Surges) 5. Biological (e.g. Disease Epidemics and Insect/Animal Plagues)

Join Us Tomorrow at AGU23! Dhruvi Kothari is unveiling our game-changing coastal flood hazard dataset for the contiguous U.S. 🌊 Coastal flooding has become an alarming occurrence in recent times, yet existing publicly available datasets not only lack spatial resolution but they are also fragmented and disparate. 🔎 What makes our dataset unique? 📊 It estimates both current and future coastal flood risk with remarkable precision, at a fine resolution of parcel base canvas scale. 🔬 It meticulously considers the inherent variability of environmental factors. 🌊 The future scenario is calibrated to account for sea level rise adjustments. 🏡 It's overlaid with state-of-the-art parcel-level data, offering a comprehensive insight into surge probabilities and risk exposures to population and property. If you’ll be attending AGU23, don’t miss this session! If you aren’t attending, but would like to learn more about our coastal flood risk data, use the comments below. Learn more & register for AGU23: https://lnkd.in/gbA6hJG #AGU23 #CoastalFlood #DataScience #ClimateChange #FloodRisk American Geophysical Union

Last week, the Rivers State House of Assembly Ad-Hoc Committee on Flood Forecast and Associated Hazards invited Local Government Area (LGA) Chairpersons, and Heads of relevant Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to an interactive session to discuss our plans regarding the upcoming floods forecast by Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) to affect 19 LGAs in the State. This session also afforded us the opportunity to share the work done so far by the State's Flood Management Committee. #Floods #EmergencyPreparedness #disastermanagement #legislature #executive #government #RiversState #NewRiversVision #continuityandconsolidation

My participation as a expert meteorologist seconded by the Sudan Meteorological Authority within the workshop of EARLY WARNING and CIVIL PROTECTION FOR FLOODS AND DROUGHTS IN SUDAN, which aims to improve forecast modelling and the impact-based forecasting.

❓ Did you know that Natural Resources Canada | Ressources naturelles Canada recently published the new version of the "Federal Hydrologic and Hydraulic Procedures for Flood Hazard Delineation"? 📕 Federal Hydrologic and Hydraulic Procedures for Flood Hazard Delineation - Version 2.0 (2023) This second edition expands on key topics and aims to provide improved guidance on: ✔ Climate change; ✔ Uncertainty; ✔ Lakeshore flooding; and ✔ Multiple other improvements including reorganizing to meet the needs of two target audiences: 1️⃣ governments procuring technical studies involved in flood management; 2️⃣ and flood mapping practitioners. The update was led by Environment and Climate Change Canada experts, in consultation with the flood mapping community and under the leadership of the Federal Flood Mapping Committee. Download link: https://lnkd.in/e7wF_A3Y To learn more about the Federal Flood Mapping Guidelines Series: https://lnkd.in/eGfczbtR #FloodMapping #Canada #Hydrology #Hydraulics #Guidance #FederalFloodMappingGuidelinesSeries #FloodHazardIdentificationandMappingProgram #NationalAdaptationStrategy